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what do you do about a slump?
http://www.lifein19x19.com/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=9147		 Page 1 of 4
Author:  Chaos [ Thu Oct 03, 2013 6:27 pm ]
Post subject:  what do you do about a slump?
horrible things, slumps.
They can occur pretty much at any time for any reason, and its up to you to take them down or get out of the game.
Of course, not playing Go isn't a real option :lol:
So, I want to know how you guys get over them.

For me, I try to play very complicated games, where reading ahead means more than territory. And I try not to back down from anything.
If I'm in a slump and play for territory, I think it makes it worse.

There's also something to be said for solidifying my fighting spirit when I'm not feeling confident. If I can do that, I can even bring a half slumped game close to the acceptable range.
Author:  EdLee [ Thu Oct 03, 2013 8:51 pm ]
Post subject: 
Very popular question. Among others.

It depends on what Go means to you. For most of us amateurs,
we are playing "for fun" -- still, there are different groups:
  • those who have little or no desire to improve;
  • those who have a strong desire to improve;
  • and the continuum in between.
Where are you in this continuum ?

If you have little or no desire to improve -- and just want to "enjoy" the game,
enjoy watching other people's games, and enjoy other aspects of it, not concerned about improving --
then what is the meaning of your question ? What's so horrible about slumps ?

If you just continue to play, even without any work or study, eventually
you'll settle to where you'll win-lose 50/50. Slump over. :)

If you have some desire to improve, then how strong is the desire ?
Is it strong enough that you will study regularly, maybe even find a good teacher at some point ?
Often, going back to the basics is important.
  • What does Go mean to you ?
  • How much effort have you put into Go ? How much effort will you put into it ?
  • If you are "stuck" for a long time, are you going to seek external help (say, look for a good teacher) ? Or, will you continue to work at it by yourself ?

Another continuum:
  • Maybe you're very close to a breakthrough. Maybe all you need is someone to open a door or two for you, and you can get out of your current "slump".
  • Maybe you're nowhere near a breakthrough.
  • And again, the continuum in between.
Where are you in this continuum? Do you think you can figure out on your own where you stand in this continuum?
Or do you think you need external help (say, a good teacher) to help you figure it out?

If you happen to find a good teacher (or 2, 3, or more) and they look at your games
and your moves, and they think you need a ton of work on your basics, and that
it may take a year (or 2, 3, or more) just to unlearn your biggest bad habits,
just to fix your most basic fundamentals,
will you commit to the regular lessons for a year (or 2, 3, or more) ?

If Go is long term for you, and you're committed to long-term improvement,
then what's so horrible about slumps ?

What does Go mean to you ?
Author:  Chaos [ Thu Oct 03, 2013 11:34 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: what do you do about a slump?
Really great answer, I'm impressed by all the time you must have put into it. ^^
As for me, I'm a player that aspires to constantly improve.
Go has gotten more and more fun with each rank I've gained. (well, the rank isn't what matters. But with each nuance of the game I've started understanding) And so I want to keep moving up, and find even more fun, and even more depth. I'm determined to work through any slumps I might come upon.
As long as I study every day I'll certainly move forward.
Admitted when I do hit one, inevitable or not, it totally bothers the crap out of me. :P
Author:  daal [ Thu Oct 03, 2013 11:43 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: what do you do about a slump?
A slump is usually not caused by one thing, but is a coincidental concentration of regular reasonable reasons for losing games. Unfortunately, this tends to have the side effect of creating a psychological factor of doubt and insecurity as to one's ability. This alone can perpetuate the slump. The main thing I do in such a situation is try to start the next game when I'm feeling fresh, perhaps after drawing some inspiration from somewhere or other, and do my best to win it. It only takes one game to end the slump.
Author:  Ortho [ Thu Oct 03, 2013 11:44 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: what do you do about a slump?
I try to make different mistakes from the ones I am currently making.
Author:  SoDesuNe [ Fri Oct 04, 2013 12:25 am ]
Post subject:  Re: what do you do about a slump?
Just do the same as before. If the slump takes more than a month then I would think about my study regime and if I could tweak it.

Most of the times it's just stuff like having too many other things on my mind to really focus.
Author:  wineandgolover [ Fri Oct 04, 2013 12:28 am ]
Post subject:  Re: what do you do about a slump?
Embrace the math. Accept that slumps can and do happen randomly. Assuming you are correctly ranked, after you lose a single game, the odds of your slump hitting five games are one in sixteen. It happens.

Likewise and sadly, winning streaks don't mean you are suddenly brilliant either.

So don't worry too much. Take a break if your mental state is wrong. Your next game is fifty-fifty.
Author:  EdLee [ Fri Oct 04, 2013 2:14 am ]
Post subject: 
Chaos wrote:
As long as I study every day I'll certainly move forward.
Yes, mostly. ( If you study in some ways, it's also possible to not improve, unfortunately. :-|)
( Just like paddling against the current: not only is it possible to stay stagnant,
but in some cases, you may actually regress. -- ancient Chinese saying. :batman: )
Author:  Boidhre [ Fri Oct 04, 2013 6:09 am ]
Post subject:  Re: what do you do about a slump?
wineandgolover wrote:
Embrace the math. Accept that slumps can and do happen randomly. Assuming you are correctly ranked, after you lose a single game, the odds of your slump hitting five games are one in sixteen. It happens.

Likewise and sadly, winning streaks don't mean you are suddenly brilliant either.

So don't worry too much. Take a break if your mental state is wrong. Your next game is fifty-fifty.


It's even more than that. Two 3 kyus aren't the same strength, they're just within a stone of one another (I not even sure it means this). Someone's rank is a guesstimate of their average play level, depending on how this is worked out and the strength we're talking about the variance could be rather large. Play when you're tired, upset, drunk or whatever and most people won't play at their real strength. This could be affecting you in losing run or your opponents in a winning streak. Finally most people don't have even strengths, five very aggressive players in a row could mean an increased chance of a win streak, five very solid players an increased chance of a losing one. Varying from person to person.

I think the chance of someone having a five game losing streak would be much greater than 1/16. Especially if those games were played in quick succession on the same day.


I repeat the above to myself as a matra over and over during the bad weeks. ;)
Author:  Chew Terr [ Fri Oct 04, 2013 7:28 am ]
Post subject:  Re: what do you do about a slump?
Something that helps me sometimes... Make yourself a goal (beyond winning the game) or pick something to work on. For example, try a new joseki and see how it affects the game as it proceeds. Or just focus on your timing for invasions/reductions. That way, not only are you working on learning/practicing one specific thing, you have smaller goals to focus on so you may stress less about winning or losing. Just something that can help me sometimes.
Author:  often [ Fri Oct 04, 2013 8:30 am ]
Post subject:  Re: what do you do about a slump?
start a new KGS account
play your way up to your old accounts strength
if you don't make it, you'll feel indignant and want to play more to prove you can get there
once you get there, you're playing a lot so playing some more isn't a big issue
Author:  Chaos [ Fri Oct 04, 2013 10:52 am ]
Post subject:  Re: what do you do about a slump?
often wrote:
start a new KGS account
play your way up to your old accounts strength
if you don't make it, you'll feel indignant and want to play more to prove you can get there
once you get there, you're playing a lot so playing some more isn't a big issue

I like doing this whenever I've had a lot of matches and it starts taking a long time to rank up even when I'm winning a lot.
But, I also really hate peoples hesitation to play a ?kyu. =(
Author:  SmoothOper [ Fri Oct 04, 2013 1:10 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: what do you do about a slump?
I think it is important to identify the source of the slump first. Perceived, inferior play can happen for a number of reasons.

1) Overall health, not getting proper nutrition or exercise, not feeling well stress, allergies etc.
2) Trying new ideas.
--> a)I haven't got the hang of the new idea.
--> b)The new idea isn't compatible with my overall strategy.
3) Outside distractions, some times I just have better things to do.
4) Getting better ... and opponents are tougher.
5) Not practicing enough, playing too much...


As you can see, most of these causes, I wouldn't consider a serious problem, except overall health. Generally, I don't buy the randomness idea, since it doesn't take into account certain known effects on play.
Author:  emeraldemon [ Fri Oct 04, 2013 1:28 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: what do you do about a slump?
One other thing to consider: when we lose several games in a row, it can feel like a slump, something that needs correcting. But often it's just that humans tend to perceive streaks trends where there aren't any. Let's say someone plays 20 games over a month and the record is like this:

LLWWLWLWLLLLLWWLLWLL

The player might despair after 5 losses in a row, and even after 20 games the win rate is only 35%. But flipping a coin 20 times will often give you results like this. (In this particular case I used a computer to generate this sequece because I'm too lazy to flip a coin 20 times...) The most likely scenario is that nothing in particular has changed with this player's abilities, they just lost a few more than they won this month.
Author:  Bantari [ Fri Oct 04, 2013 2:02 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: what do you do about a slump?
emeraldemon wrote:
One other thing to consider: when we lose several games in a row, it can feel like a slump, something that needs correcting. But often it's just that humans tend to perceive streaks trends where there aren't any. Let's say someone plays 20 games over a month and the record is like this:

LLWWLWLWLLLLLWWLLWLL

The player might despair after 5 losses in a row, and even after 20 games the win rate is only 35%. But flipping a coin 20 times will often give you results like this. (In this particular case I used a computer to generate this sequece because I'm too lazy to flip a coin 20 times...) The most likely scenario is that nothing in particular has changed with this player's abilities, they just lost a few more than they won this month.


Speaking of trends....
If your 'normal' is to have, say, 60% or even 70% win rate over any given month, and then one month comes with 35% - is that a slump, or even significant? I mean, I know about coins, but you can't really flip humans like coins - most are too heavy and it might be against the law.
Author:  SmoothOper [ Fri Oct 04, 2013 5:31 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: what do you do about a slump?
emeraldemon wrote:
One other thing to consider: when we lose several games in a row, it can feel like a slump, something that needs correcting. But often it's just that humans tend to perceive streaks trends where there aren't any. Let's say someone plays 20 games over a month and the record is like this:

LLWWLWLWLLLLLWWLLWLL

The player might despair after 5 losses in a row, and even after 20 games the win rate is only 35%. But flipping a coin 20 times will often give you results like this. (In this particular case I used a computer to generate this sequece because I'm too lazy to flip a coin 20 times...) The most likely scenario is that nothing in particular has changed with this player's abilities, they just lost a few more than they won this month.


That trend has a probability of .057 of being, purely random. Binary data can have a lot of power in small sample sizes, if you don't do something stupid like approximate it with a normal.

http://graphpad.com/quickcalcs/binomial2/
Author:  DrStraw [ Fri Oct 04, 2013 5:35 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: what do you do about a slump?
What do I do about a slump?

That is the easiest question I have been asked in ages. The answer is NOTHING. Time takes care of it.

Have you never heard that you never learn if you don't make mistakes. Well when you make mistakes you tend to slump. It is a simple consequence of the normal distribution. Some people slump more than others. But slumps end.

Now, if it is not a slump and you have genuinely reached a plataue then that is a completely different question. But that is not what you asked.
Author:  Mike Novack [ Sat Oct 05, 2013 5:53 am ]
Post subject:  Re: what do you do about a slump?
Bantari wrote:
Speaking of trends....
If your 'normal' is to have, say, 60% or even 70% win rate over any given month, and then one month comes with 35% - is that a slump, or even significant? I mean, I know about coins, but you can't really flip humans like coins - most are too heavy and it might be against the law.


No, of course not, humans are different from coins because they have minds capable of seeking patterns (even if none exist). In evolutionary terms useful, because sometime patterns do exist and can be learned. And likewise useful in evolutionary terms if a useful pattern does exist, to be able to learn it quickly.

But there is a downside to that (which is what we are talking about now). As Emeraldemon is pointing out, an actual random sequence is likely to appear to us to have a pattern when it does not. In other words, we are making the judgement far too quickly in terms of what mathematics would justify. That does not have a very high cost in evolutionary terms because the "false learning" is likely balanced in both directions. We have learned a (useless) behavior but if the situation is actually random that won't matter much besides cluttering our brains, which have enough room to accept a great deal of clutter while still leaving space for useful learning to be added.

If you want to research this question of "streaks" in human play activities you might note that there have been academic studies investigating things like whether hitting streaks (or slumps) in baseball are more frequent/longer than would be expected if purely random. Unfortunately the conclusions that these are just what might be expected if purely random does not help the feelings of exaltation or despair felt by the players experiencing the streaks.
Author:  emeraldemon [ Sat Oct 05, 2013 8:39 am ]
Post subject:  Re: what do you do about a slump?
SmoothOper wrote:
emeraldemon wrote:
One other thing to consider: when we lose several games in a row, it can feel like a slump, something that needs correcting. But often it's just that humans tend to perceive streaks trends where there aren't any. Let's say someone plays 20 games over a month and the record is like this:

LLWWLWLWLLLLLWWLLWLL

The player might despair after 5 losses in a row, and even after 20 games the win rate is only 35%. But flipping a coin 20 times will often give you results like this. (In this particular case I used a computer to generate this sequece because I'm too lazy to flip a coin 20 times...) The most likely scenario is that nothing in particular has changed with this player's abilities, they just lost a few more than they won this month.


That trend has a probability of .057 of being, purely random. Binary data can have a lot of power in small sample sizes, if you don't do something stupid like approximate it with a normal.

http://graphpad.com/quickcalcs/binomial2/


Where did you get this number? If I type the example above into the calculator you linked, it gives 0.1316 for the 1-sided p value and 0.2632 for the two-sided. Neither of those is exactly "the probability of being random", but they're high enough to say you probably shouldn't reject the possibility of a binomial distribution with 50% win rate.
Author:  SmoothOper [ Sat Oct 05, 2013 1:42 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: what do you do about a slump?
Sign and binomial test
Number of "successes": 14
Number of trials (or subjects) per experiment: 20
Sign test. If the probability of "success" in each trial or subject is 0.500, then:
The one-tail P value is 0.0577
This is the chance of observing 14 or more successes in 20 trials.
The two-tail P value is 0.1153
This is the chance of observing either 14 or more successes, or 6 or fewer successes, in 20 trials.
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