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MLily main tournament
http://www.lifein19x19.com/viewtopic.php?f=13&t=12012		 Page 1 of 5
Author:  trout [ Tue Jul 07, 2015 7:01 am ]
Post subject:  MLily main tournament
Round of 64;

Ahn Sungjoon defeated Rui Neiwei.
Lee Donghoon defeated Mi Yuting.
Shin Minjoon defeated Wang Ru.
Ke Jie defeated Qin Yuexin.
Zhang Chang defeated Ichiriki Ryo.
Byun Sangil defeated Li Haojun.
Lee Sedol defeated Xie Erhao.
Tuo Jiaxi defeated Fan Tingyu.
Wang Chengxin defeated Chen Wishun.
Won Seongjin defeated Park Seunghwa.
Xie Ke defeated Fan Fei.
Park Junghwan defeated Ilya Shikshin.
Chen Yaoye defeated Wang Chen.
Tong Mengcheng defeated Chen Chirui.
Ding Hao defeated Cho Hanseung.
Rong Yi defeated Nie Weiping.
Li Rui defeated Xiao Zhenghao.
Shi Yue defeated Gu Li.
Wu Guangya defeated Ida Atzushi.
Li Quencheng defeated Lee Wongyoung.
Fan In defeated Liu Xi.
Kong Jie defeated Wang Tao.
Tang Weixing defeated Yuki Satoshi.
Lian Xiao defeated Yang Huiren.
Park Younghoon defeated Park Jiyeon.
An Jeongki defeated Hui Wiching.
King Sedong defeated Alexandro.
Zhou Ruiyang defeated Yoon Junsang.
Yu Zhiying defeated Huang Yizhong.
Wang zhoujin defeated Kim Jiseok.
Yang Kaiwon defeated Wi Taewoong.


An Jeongki became professional by accumulating enough points winning a game in this tournament.
Author:  bayu [ Tue Jul 07, 2015 8:38 am ]
Post subject:  Re: MLily main tournament
Who is Alexandro?
Author:  HermanHiddema [ Tue Jul 07, 2015 8:52 am ]
Post subject:  Re: MLily main tournament
bayu wrote:
Who is Alexandro?


Alexandre Dinerchtein, presumably, as he won the European MLily qualification: http://andalucia-go.org/index.php/en/
Author:  macelee [ Tue Jul 07, 2015 12:33 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: MLily main tournament
All 32 round 1 games:

http://www.go4go.net/go/games/tournament/157
Author:  trout [ Wed Jul 08, 2015 11:19 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: MLily main tournament
Round of 32;

Kim Sedong defeated An Jeongki by resign.
Zhou Ruiyang defeated Yu Zhiying by resign.
Ke Jie defeated Zhang Chang by resign.
Tang Weixing defeated Kong Jie by resign.
Rong Yi defeated Li Rui by resign.
Li Quencheng defeated Fan In by resign.
Lee Sedol defeated Byun Sangil by resign.
Tuo Jiaxi defeated Wang Chengxin by resign.
Wang zhoujin defeated Yang Kaiwon by resign.
Park Junghwan defeated Chen Yaoye by resign.
Wu Guangya defeated Shi Yue by resign.
Xie Ke defeated Won Seongjin by resign.
Ding Hao defeated Tong Mengcheng by resign.
Ahn Sungjoon defeated Lee Donghoon by resign.
Chang Hao defeated Shin Minjoon by 0.5.
Park Younghoon defeated Lian Xiao by 0.5.

2 ladies Wang Chengxin and Yu Zhiying didn't pass this round.
Author:  trout [ Thu Jul 09, 2015 8:33 am ]
Post subject:  Re: MLily main tournament
Pairing for round of 16;

Lee Sedol vs Ding Hao
Park Junghwan vs Zhou Ruiyang
Park Younghoon vs Chang Hao
Ahn Sungjoon vs Tuo Jiaxi
Kim Sedong vs Rong Yi
Ke Jie vs Wang zhoujin
Tang Weixing vs Li Quencheng
Wu Guangya vs Xie Ke
Author:  oren [ Thu Jul 09, 2015 9:22 am ]
Post subject:  Re: MLily main tournament
Maybe one of the best arguments for having worldwide accepted rankings like sports would be to avoid having matchups of Park Junghwan against Chen Yaoye so early.

It's not official, but the best I've seen updated is
http://sports.geocities.jp/mamumamu0413/total.html

So in the second round we have 1 vs 9.

In the first round we had Shi Yue vs Gu Li... 3 vs 13.

In the end it probably doesn't matter much, but I think it would be nice to be able to save the best matchups as much as possible for later.
Author:  macelee [ Thu Jul 09, 2015 1:59 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: MLily main tournament
Does rank really matter that much?

In round one, we see that No. 195 beating No. 4 and No. 174 beating No. 26.
Author:  oren [ Thu Jul 09, 2015 7:13 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: MLily main tournament
macelee wrote:
Does rank really matter that much?
In round one, we see that No. 195 beating No. 4 and No. 174 beating No. 26.


Certainly it happens both ways... but I do prefer the chance for the highest seeds to meet later in the tournament.
Author:  trout [ Fri Aug 28, 2015 10:01 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: MLily main tournament
Reminder,

8/30/15
round of 16;

Lee Sedol vs Ding Hao
Park Junghwan vs Zhou Ruiyang
Park Younghoon vs Chang Hao
Ahn Sungjoon vs Tuo Jiaxi
Kim Sedong vs Rong Yi
Ke Jie vs Wang zhoujin
Tang Weixing vs Li Quencheng
Wu Guangya vs Xie Ke
Author:  emeraldemon [ Sat Aug 29, 2015 1:39 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: MLily main tournament
Ok I wanted to use Remi's site to preview the Round of 16. For each match I list the ranking and elo of the players, and who is predicted to when by how much.

Park Jungwhan (#1, 3572) vs Zhou Ruiyang (#15, 3444)
Predict Jungwhan 68% win.
The headline matchup. Zhou Ruiyang would be the favorite to win against a lot of the remaining players, but not Park Jungwhan.
Not only is the rating higher, Park Jungwhan has won 8 of the 9 games they've played. Ouch.
Park Jungwhan is near an all-time high for his rating. Zhou Ruiyang peaked in early 2013, when he beat Chen Yaoye in the Bailing Cup final.
Ruiyang has fallen steadily since then, so it would be a big upset for him to defeat Jungwhan.


Li Quencheng (#10, 3465) vs Tang Weixing (#19,3429)
 Li Qincheng 55%. WHR predicts this to be the closest match of the round, two strong players trying to fight their way into the elite tier.
Li Qincheng is a new pro, but with very scary numbers. He isn't exactly well known, but he recently beat Shi Yue and Mi Yuting in the Agon cup.
Quencheng and Weixing have played twice before, at the Tinyuan semifinal and in City League; Li Qincheng won both times.
Tang Weixing won the Samsung cup in 2013. His elo has dropped about 20 points since then.

Lee Sedol (#3, 3521) vs Ding Hao (#67, 3325)
Lee isn't quite at his peak strength (3541), but he's close. Ding Hao 2p only has 12 games in the database, he's still a very new pro.
Lee Sedol will be by far the toughest player he's faced in a tournament.
Predict Lee Sedol 76%.

Tuo Jiaxi (#6, 3487) vs An Sungjoon (#44, 3348)
Tuo Jiazi 69% to win. They have never played before.
Tuo Jiaxi is in the best form of his career, ranked #6 in the world, and recently beat Lee Sedol in the Kuksu mountain team tournament.

Ke Jie (#2, 3561) vs Wang Zejin (#135, 3244)
Ke Jie 86%. Wang Zejin 3p is 16 years old and knocked out #8-ranked Kim Jiseok last round, but it'll be a huge upset if he can take down Ke Jie.
Ke Jie is himself only 18, but he is #2 in the world, won the last Bailing cup, and shows no signs of slowing down.
This game is the largest elo gap in this round, 317 points!

Park Yeonghun (#21, 3425) vs Chang Hao (#112, 3270)
Park Yeonghun has mounted something of a comeback in the last three years, but is still a bit off of his peak strength.
Chang Hao on the other hand has fallen off dramatically since 2008, losing 170 elo. All-time Yeonghun is up 6-4.
Yeonghun 71% to win.

Wu Guangya (#32, 3380) vs Xie Ke (#94, 3293)
Wu Guangya 62%. Xie Ke is a brand new 1p. They have never battled before.

Kim Sedong (#65, 3325) vs Rong Yi (#148, 3231)
65% Sedong.
Both somewhat unknown. This is the weakest matchup by elo. Never faced each other.

5 of the top 10 players by elo are still in the trounament:
1 Park Jungwhan -- IN
2 Ke Jie -- IN
3 Lee Sedol -- IN
4 Shi Yue -- lost to Wu Guangya
5 Lian Xiao -- Lost to Park Yeonghun
6 Tuo Jiaxi -- IN
7 Iyama Yuta -- didn't compete
8 Kim Jiseok -- lost to Wang Zejin
9 Chen Yaoye -- lost to Park Jungwhan
10 Li Qincheng -- IN
Author:  trout [ Sun Aug 30, 2015 12:32 am ]
Post subject:  Re: MLily main tournament
8/30/15
round of 16;
Zhou Ruiyang defeated Park Junghwan by resign.
Xie Ke defeated Wu Guangya by resign.
Rong Yi defeated Kim Sedong by 0.5.
Lee Sedol defeated Ding Hao by resign.
Ke Jie defeated Wang zhoujin by resign.
Park Younghoon defeated Chang Hao by resign.
Ahn Sungjoon defeated Tuo Jiaxi by resign.
Tang Weixing defeated Li Quencheng by resign.
Author:  Uberdude [ Sun Aug 30, 2015 2:58 am ]
Post subject:  Re: MLily main tournament
Prediction success 3 out of 8, oh dear!
Author:  trout [ Sun Aug 30, 2015 6:28 am ]
Post subject:  Re: MLily main tournament
9/1/15
pairing for round of 8

Lee Sedol vs Tang Weixing
Ke Jie vs Rong Yi
Park Younghoon vs Zhou Ruiyang
Ahn Sungjoon vs Xie Ke
Author:  bayu [ Mon Aug 31, 2015 4:09 am ]
Post subject:  Re: MLily main tournament
Uberdude wrote:
Prediction success 3 out of 8, oh dear!


Not significantly worse than guessing is a good start :cool:
Author:  trout [ Tue Sep 01, 2015 12:06 am ]
Post subject:  Re: MLily main tournament
9/1/15
Round of 8

Ahn Sungjoon defeated Xie Ke by resign.
Ke Jie defeated Rong Yi by resign.
Lee Sedol defeated Tang Weixing by resign.
Park Younghoon defeated Zhou Ruiyang by resign.
Author:  Uberdude [ Tue Sep 01, 2015 2:50 am ]
Post subject:  Re: MLily main tournament
goratings.org got 3/4 this time. Park Yeonghun beating Zhou Ruiyang was the upset, but only a small one as Zhou only 19 rating points higher.
Author:  Krama [ Tue Sep 01, 2015 4:54 am ]
Post subject:  Re: MLily main tournament
Uberdude wrote:
goratings.org got 3/4 this time. Park Yeonghun beating Zhou Ruiyang was the upset, but only a small one as Zhou only 19 rating points higher.


I haven't seen a lot of Park Younghoon lately, so him getting this far is quite surprising for me.

Also Park Junghwan losing so "early" was another surprise.

But after all this is only a game :)
Author:  wineandgolover [ Tue Sep 01, 2015 5:04 am ]
Post subject:  Re: MLily main tournament
Uberdude wrote:
goratings.org got 3/4 this time. Park Yeonghun beating Zhou Ruiyang was the upset, but only a small one as Zhou only 19 rating points higher.

How big should an ELO gap be, before we really consider it an upset?
Author:  Uberdude [ Tue Sep 01, 2015 5:33 am ]
Post subject:  Re: MLily main tournament
Yeah, by 'upset' I was just too lazy to type "game whose result was not as predicted"; is there a good single-word noun for this?. I wouldn't call going against a <53% prediction an upset. Something like against a 70-80% is what I'd normally mean by upset, 75% corresponds to an ELO difference of 190. It's worth noting that in the EGF system (based on ELO) the probability of win is not just a function of rating difference, but also of rating (so a 7d being 4 stones or 400 points above a 3d is more likely to win than a 1k being 4 stones or 400 points above a 5k). That arises because the rating system is distorted into not just having 100 points of rating meaning not just the 64% win chance or whatever the pure ELO model prescribes, but also meaning a one stone handicap difference. These pros are all so strong but still close to each other in terms of handicap stones difference and no handicap games in the database that 100 rating points means nothing in terms of handicap stone strength difference so probably the raw ELO difference to win rate is largely applicable.
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