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Who will win?
Poll ended at Mon Dec 27, 2010 12:07 pm
John Tromp 61%  61%  [ 22 ]
The Computer 19%  19%  [ 7 ]
Too close to call 6%  6%  [ 2 ]
Kasparov switches games to defend humanity 14%  14%  [ 5 ]
Total votes : 36
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 Post subject: The Shodan Go Bet
Post #1 Posted: Mon Dec 20, 2010 12:07 pm 
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In 1997, John Tromp made a bet with Darren Cook that he would not lose a serious match with a computer Go player before the end of 2010. Now 13 years later the match has been scheduled to start December 28th.

Bet details: http://dcook.org/gobet/details.html

Back then programs were not very good, and progress was slow. But in 2006 there was a breakthrough technique -- Monte Carlo tree search. Since then bots have improve very rapidly, about a stone every year, and Zen19 is 3d on KGS now (see http://senseis.xmp.net/?KGSBotRatings for a history of bot progress).

So who do you think will win the bet? What do you think about the future of computer go?

-------------------------

Update:
Links to the games and result:


Last edited by yoyoma on Wed Dec 29, 2010 12:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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 Post subject: Re: The Shodan Go Bet
Post #2 Posted: Mon Dec 20, 2010 1:00 pm 
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From the article:
Quote:
John (Tromp) is now 2-dan (European), going on 3-dan, understands computer go, and will certainly know how to exploit any known weaknesses of the computer.


Could be a close match if the Zen engine is used.

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 Post subject: Re: The Shodan Go Bet
Post #3 Posted: Mon Dec 20, 2010 1:45 pm 
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Did Cook pick a bot yet? I heard MFOG might be used, but I don't see confirmation anywhere yet

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 Post subject: Re: The Shodan Go Bet
Post #4 Posted: Mon Dec 20, 2010 2:05 pm 
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One of the linked pages says that the bot will be announced just before the competition, perhaps to prevent Tromp from doing focused training against it (though he's able to play any available bot right now).

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 Post subject: Re: The Shodan Go Bet
Post #5 Posted: Mon Dec 20, 2010 2:34 pm 
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Zen19 is currently at exactly the dividing line between 3d and 4d.

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 Post subject: Re: The Shodan Go Bet
Post #6 Posted: Mon Dec 20, 2010 4:06 pm 
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i dont think computer can reach real human 3dan level for next 10 years.

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 Post subject: Re: The Shodan Go Bet
Post #7 Posted: Mon Dec 20, 2010 4:14 pm 
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Magicwand wrote:
i dont think computer can reach real human 3dan level for next 10 years.

I'm not quite sure what you mean, since Zen19 is already 3d KGS and I don't know how 3d KGS is different from "real human 3d", but I would easily bet $1000 or even $10000 on that, if you like. (I don't want to wait 10 years, but I doubt I'd have to wait much more than a year before computers convincingly dominate any "real human 3d".)

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 Post subject: Re: The Shodan Go Bet
Post #8 Posted: Mon Dec 20, 2010 4:32 pm 
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how did computer earn kgs 3d ??
did he actually play other players and beat them?
does that mean that he can play in two stone and win?
if computer is 3d kgs then i should have hard time win against him right?
if you like betting i will bet $100 and play him 3 stone.
are you so confident that you will win?

i wouldnt bet my $100 if it was actual human playin..
that is what i mean.

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 Post subject: Re: The Shodan Go Bet
Post #9 Posted: Mon Dec 20, 2010 4:36 pm 
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http://www.gokgs.com/gameArchives.jsp?user=zen19

You can decide yourself looking at the games.

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 Post subject: Re: The Shodan Go Bet
Post #10 Posted: Mon Dec 20, 2010 4:47 pm 
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oren wrote:
http://www.gokgs.com/gameArchives.jsp?user=zen19

You can decide yourself looking at the games.


thank you for your info.
i dont think computer can beat me in 4 stone...
it is more like 1k or 2k to me.

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 Post subject: Re: The Shodan Go Bet
Post #11 Posted: Mon Dec 20, 2010 4:55 pm 
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zen has a suspicious number of wins by time. something like 20% (no losses by time). at what time limits are the games played, why have the human players so much trouble with the time?

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 Post subject: Re: The Shodan Go Bet
Post #12 Posted: Mon Dec 20, 2010 5:03 pm 
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tapir wrote:
zen has a suspicious number of wins by time. something like 20% (no losses by time). at what time limits are the games played, why have the human players so much trouble with the time?

3min 5x15sec

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 Post subject: Re: The Shodan Go Bet
Post #13 Posted: Mon Dec 20, 2010 5:16 pm 
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Magicwand wrote:
if you like betting i will bet $100 and play him 3 stone.
are you so confident that you will win?

No :)

But you said ten years... I'm sure that within ten years a computer will be able to beat you in an even game at any time setting.

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 Post subject: Re: The Shodan Go Bet
Post #14 Posted: Mon Dec 20, 2010 5:23 pm 
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Magicwand wrote:
tapir wrote:
zen has a suspicious number of wins by time. something like 20% (no losses by time). at what time limits are the games played, why have the human players so much trouble with the time?

3min 5x15sec


well, they say the computer gains one stone in strength by doubling the time. how much loses a human by playing in such a blitz mode? more than one i guess. i mean can they read a fight over ladder breakers at such time limit - for how much moves? add the real timeouts (as opposed to those preferring to see a lost by time over an resignation) ... still a feat, but i would be way more impressed by this rank at 15min 3x30sec or something like that.

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 Post subject: Re: The Shodan Go Bet
Post #15 Posted: Mon Dec 20, 2010 5:24 pm 
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palapiku wrote:
Magicwand wrote:
if you like betting i will bet $100 and play him 3 stone.
are you so confident that you will win?

No :)

But you said ten years... I'm sure that within ten years a computer will be able to beat you in an even game at any time setting.


yes ten years.
personally i dont think computer will beat me in my life time.
i am 43 years old and planning to live upto 100.
i guess you have 57 more years :)

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 Post subject: Re: The Shodan Go Bet
Post #16 Posted: Mon Dec 20, 2010 5:45 pm 
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Zen19b [3d] plays 0+5x:10
Zen19 [3d] plays 3+3x:15
Zen19n [2d] plays 20+5x:30

So it looks like humans benefit more than Zen19 from longer thinking times.

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 Post subject: Re: The Shodan Go Bet
Post #17 Posted: Mon Dec 20, 2010 5:47 pm 
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Magicwand wrote:
personally i dont think computer will beat me in my life time.
i am 43 years old and planning to live upto 100.
i guess you have 57 more years :)

As much as I would like your words to become true - you are too optimistic here. You (and I) have no idea about the progress that information technology will bring in the next decades.

THE SINGULARITY IS NEAR

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 Post subject: Re: The Shodan Go Bet
Post #18 Posted: Tue Dec 21, 2010 1:08 am 
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tapir wrote:
zen has a suspicious number of wins by time. something like 20% (no losses by time). at what time limits are the games played, why have the human players so much trouble with the time?


I would guess bots gain at least a stone (perhaps even 2) by always playing to their ability (i.e. they don't make blunders, they don't get bored, they don't get drunk, they don't get distracted, etc).

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 Post subject: Re: The Shodan Go Bet
Post #19 Posted: Tue Dec 21, 2010 1:55 am 
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I dunno, I think the statistic "A computer gains one stone by doubling their time" is a little misleading, I don't think Zen gains that much with repeated doubling of computing time. Human players, otoh, can lose substantially more than one stone by halving their time.

If you include the sampling bias that players who beat a bot are less likely to play it in future, I suspect that the Zenbot is taking advantage of "Time-fish".

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 Post subject: Re: The Shodan Go Bet
Post #20 Posted: Tue Dec 21, 2010 2:16 am 
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shapenaji wrote:
I dunno, I think the statistic "A computer gains one stone by doubling their time" is a little misleading, I don't think Zen gains that much with repeated doubling of computing time. Human players, otoh, can lose substantially more than one stone by halving their time.


I think what the quote means is that the computer gains one stone by doubling its time, all other things being equal (in other words, the opponent doesn't get to double their time). Put another way, the program gains one stone compared to a known and stable set of fixed rank opponents, e.g. gnugo version x with thinking time y.

So yes, I agree it is misleading.

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