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Who will win?
Poll ended at Mon Dec 27, 2010 12:07 pm
John Tromp 61%  61%  [ 22 ]
The Computer 19%  19%  [ 7 ]
Too close to call 6%  6%  [ 2 ]
Kasparov switches games to defend humanity 14%  14%  [ 5 ]
Total votes : 36
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 Post subject: Re: The Shodan Go Bet
Post #81 Posted: Thu Dec 30, 2010 8:04 am 
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i can not understand why people still think machine has a chance against human player.
in my opinion machine is around 3k if the player expose their weakness.

i remember 20 years ago i played against manyface 9 stone handycap.
my whole object were to kill every group on the board.
I WAS SUCCESSFUL exposing!

killing everything on the board is hard but winning is too easy.
unless machine make major update on their weakness it is too easy beat machine.

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 Post subject: Re: The Shodan Go Bet
Post #82 Posted: Thu Dec 30, 2010 9:06 am 
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Magicwand wrote:
killing everything on the board is hard but winning is too easy.
unless machine make major update on their weakness it is too easy beat machine.


Why don't you put your money down? John Tromp made a $1000 bet about the strength of computers in 2010. What are you prepared to wager regarding the strength of computers in 10 years?

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 Post subject: Re: The Shodan Go Bet
Post #83 Posted: Thu Dec 30, 2010 11:09 am 
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pwaldron wrote:
Magicwand wrote:
killing everything on the board is hard but winning is too easy.
unless machine make major update on their weakness it is too easy beat machine.


Why don't you put your money down? John Tromp made a $1000 bet about the strength of computers in 2010. What are you prepared to wager regarding the strength of computers in 10 years?


i dont mind putting 1G. 10 years later computer can not beat me in serious game for sure.
but who will monitor my bet?

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 Post subject: Re: The Shodan Go Bet
Post #84 Posted: Thu Dec 30, 2010 11:32 am 
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Mike Novack wrote:
No, as shapenaji was clear to point out, an insufficient number of games from which to draw any* statistical inference even were the games between a human 1 dan and a 2 dan. We need to also remember that the expectation that a 1 dan will win 1/3 of the games against a 2 dan is empirical and based upon human players.

* Consider an honest coin. If flipped four times the most likely (single) outcome is 2-2. But it is more likely than not the outcome will be one of the other possibilities (odds (5:3). In other words, looking at this in reverse, we should not express an opinion about the honesty of the coin based upon four trials because we do not expect the most likely result for an honest coin.


One thing I'm not certain you've taken into account with this statistical approach is that for the purposes of this bet, the bot and John were treated as equals--white received komi (7.5, I believe), and they alternated between black and white. For your statistical "1d vs 2d with 1d winning 1/3 of the games", the 1d would always be black and there would be no komi.

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 Post subject: Re: The Shodan Go Bet
Post #85 Posted: Thu Dec 30, 2010 11:42 am 
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LocoRon wrote:
For your statistical "1d vs 2d with 1d winning 1/3 of the games", the 1d would always be black and there would be no komi.


Really? I always thought the situation where the weaker player plays black with no komi, when the players are 1 rank apart, was the standard way of arranging what is effectively a "1 stone handicap" - so in theory would be expected to give the two players equal winning chances, as in any handicap game. I thought the figure of 1/3 winning chance for the weaker player applied only to even games (with whatever is currently thought to be the "correct" value of komi).

I'm not 100% sure about this (I'm relatively new to go), but it seems logical to me. Can anyone else comment? (I don't care whether it's to back me up or tell me I'm wrong :))

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 Post subject: Re: The Shodan Go Bet
Post #86 Posted: Thu Dec 30, 2010 11:52 am 
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Why don't you put your money down? John Tromp made a $1000 bet about the strength of computers in 2010. What are you prepared to wager regarding the strength of computers in 10 years?


I'm not sure I follow the argument that you have to put down money just to have an opinion. David Levy's famous bet in the chess computer world was nothing at all to do with putting his money where his mouth was or even with his opinions on chess computers. He made a very calculated gamble that the publicity from his bet would easily offset the cost if he lost. In fact, he miscalculated - it was worth far, far more than he dared hope, partly because chess computers took longer than he expected to make progress.

I don't think John Tromp had any such ulterior motive, but he very kindly gave a lot of us a good deal of entertainment nevertheless.

On a different tack, I was looking at a 1973 Go Review today and there was a survey of computing projects by Stuart Dowsey. I was surprised to see that a program playing strength of 10 kyu was being claimed, and that a tsumego project by Bill Mann of Massachusetts could "solve shodan problems without too much difficulty". If that's true, there's been much less progress in the last almost 40 years than I previously thought.

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 Post subject: Re: The Shodan Go Bet
Post #87 Posted: Thu Dec 30, 2010 12:08 pm 
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I agree that it's silly to say that you have to bet to have an opinion. The advantage of betting is that it slows down your thought processes, and makes you ask yourself "did I really mean the thing that I just said?" But if you're disciplined, you can do that without a bet.

The other advantage is that this bet resulted in a much cleaner comparison than some previous events.

John Fairbairn wrote:
David Levy's famous bet in the chess computer world was nothing at all to do with putting his money where his mouth was or even with his opinions on chess computers. He made a very calculated gamble that the publicity from his bet would easily offset the cost if he lost. In fact, he miscalculated - it was worth far, far more than he dared hope, partly because chess computers took longer than he expected to make progress.


I'm probably slow, but can you explain what you mean by saying it was worth more than he dared hope?

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 Post subject: Re: The Shodan Go Bet
Post #88 Posted: Thu Dec 30, 2010 12:33 pm 
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I'm probably slow, but can you explain what you mean by saying it was worth more than he dared hope?


I can't remember his exact words, but it was along the lines of getting publicity over more years than he had expected, and that publicity, if he'd had to pay for advertisements or hiring PR companies or taking people out to dinner, would have cost an awful lot more.

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 Post subject: Re: The Shodan Go Bet
Post #89 Posted: Thu Dec 30, 2010 12:42 pm 
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Why are you guys trying to shut down another epic bet?

Who will step up and go against Magicwand? Let's look forward to 2021!

:mrgreen:

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 Post subject: Re: The Shodan Go Bet
Post #90 Posted: Thu Dec 30, 2010 1:03 pm 
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Magicwand wrote:
i can not understand why people still think machine has a chance against human player.
in my opinion machine is around 3k if the player expose their weakness.

i remember 20 years ago i played against manyface 9 stone handycap.
my whole object were to kill every group on the board.
I WAS SUCCESSFUL exposing!

killing everything on the board is hard but winning is too easy.
unless machine make major update on their weakness it is too easy beat machine.


20 years ago !!! (in this matter 2 years can be a long time)

You think ManyFaces is playing at around 3k? How about expressing this in terms of handicap stones? How many stones do you think you could allow Manyfaces 12.021 playing on a "standard" computer (4-5 ECU)? I have MFOG 12.021 here at home running on a computer of that power. Get to play lots of games against it. Now I am a much weaker player than you are but I know both how many stones I need to have a fair chance against the program compared to how many I need against various human players of known rank at our local go club.

In other words, how many stones can you offer a human 3k and still win? (and at one more would lose most of the games). How about a human 1k or a human 1 dan?

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 Post subject: Re: The Shodan Go Bet
Post #91 Posted: Thu Dec 30, 2010 1:09 pm 
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robinz, you're right. ^_^;;

My bad!

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 Post subject: Re: The Shodan Go Bet
Post #92 Posted: Sat Jan 01, 2011 1:27 pm 
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Magicwand wrote:
i can not understand why people still think machine has a chance against human player.
in my opinion machine is around 3k if the player expose their weakness.

i remember 20 years ago i played against manyface 9 stone handycap.
my whole object were to kill every group on the board.
I WAS SUCCESSFUL exposing!

killing everything on the board is hard but winning is too easy.
unless machine make major update on their weakness it is too easy beat machine.


You're applying linear logic to what is predominantly an exponential field.

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 Post subject: Re: The Shodan Go Bet
Post #93 Posted: Sat Jan 01, 2011 3:04 pm 
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shapenaji wrote:
Magicwand wrote:
i can not understand why people still think machine has a chance against human player.
in my opinion machine is around 3k if the player expose their weakness.

i remember 20 years ago i played against manyface 9 stone handycap.
my whole object were to kill every group on the board.
I WAS SUCCESSFUL exposing!

killing everything on the board is hard but winning is too easy.
unless machine make major update on their weakness it is too easy beat machine.


You're applying linear logic to what is predominantly an exponential field.


what i believe is that computer go get's harder to program exponentially as rank goes up.

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 Post subject: Re: The Shodan Go Bet
Post #94 Posted: Sat Jan 01, 2011 3:13 pm 
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Magicwand wrote:
what i believe is that computer go get's harder to program exponentially as rank goes up.


just like it gets harder to improve for humans when their rank goes up ;-) .

increasing difficulty will slow down computer improvemtnt, but they will improve when people keep investingh time in them

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 Post subject: Re: The Shodan Go Bet
Post #95 Posted: Mon Jan 03, 2011 9:02 am 
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robinz wrote:
LocoRon wrote:
For your statistical "1d vs 2d with 1d winning 1/3 of the games", the 1d would always be black and there would be no komi.


Really? I always thought the situation where the weaker player plays black with no komi, when the players are 1 rank apart, was the standard way of arranging what is effectively a "1 stone handicap" - so in theory would be expected to give the two players equal winning chances, as in any handicap game. I thought the figure of 1/3 winning chance for the weaker player applied only to even games (with whatever is currently thought to be the "correct" value of komi).

I'm not 100% sure about this (I'm relatively new to go), but it seems logical to me. Can anyone else comment? (I don't care whether it's to back me up or tell me I'm wrong :))


It is more complicated than this.

in general a 2 dan has an average ELO rating of 2200
and a 1 dan a rating of 2100

On the difference in ELO rating (100 )
under normal situations the lower player is supposed to win 36.3% so around 1 in 3 games (33%)

This is for even games as they are normally played (with nothing done to compensate the rating difference)

see
http://senseis.xmp.net/?EloRating
and
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ELO_rating_system

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 Post subject: Re: The Shodan Go Bet
Post #96 Posted: Mon Jan 03, 2011 9:12 am 
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willemien wrote:
It is more complicated than this.

in general a 2 dan has an average ELO rating of 2200
and a 1 dan a rating of 2100

On the difference in ELO rating (100 )
under normal situations the lower player is supposed to win 36.3% so around 1 in 3 games (33%)

This is for even games as they are normally played (with nothing done to compensate the rating difference)

see
http://senseis.xmp.net/?EloRating
and
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ELO_rating_system


The ratings you mention are those as used by the EGF, but the EGF does not use the basic Elo rating system as it is used in Chess. FOr an overview on how the EGF version works, and a table of predicted winning percentages, see: EGFRatingSystem

For 2d vs 1d, the EGF predicts that the 1d will win 26.9% of games. But those numbers are not necessarily correct. According to the EGF database historic records at EGFWinningStatistics, 1 dans won 37.6% of their games against 2 dans. Of course, those statistics are biased upwards by the widespread use of McMahon tournaments. Personally, I think the truth is somewhere in the middle, and 1 in 3 games is not an unreasonable rough estimate.

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