Japanese earthquake

kirkmc · #1

I awoke this morning and saw the news on TV. The footage of the tsunami is devastating. My thoughts go out to all those in Japan and in neighboring countries who will get hit by the relentless waters in the coming hours...

EdLee · #2

Yes, kirkmc, it's very bad. My area is currently under "tsunami warning";
the estimated arrival time is about 5 hours from now.
Hawaii, Australia, and New Zealand, too.

Tsuyoku · #3

At least they have experience with this kind of thing.

Not that a decent rescue response, with competent medical care and so on does anything for the ones who were killed.

I feel so sad.

Joaz Banbeck · #4

EdLee wrote:

Yes, kirkmc, it's very bad. My area is currently under "tsunami warning";
the estimated arrival time is about 5 hours from now.
Hawaii, Australia, and New Zealand, too.

Ed, you should be ok; the coast around Santa Barabara faces southward enough that most of the force of the tsunami should sweep past almost parallel to the coast.
Here in LA we appear to be protected by the Channel Islands.
But for a bad combination of population density, perpendicular coast, and undersea formations focusing the water, I'd say the worst in California will be Monterey and the small towns like Marina just north of it.

EDIT: I recall some flat beaches south of Morro Bay...they have golf courses just inland because it floods easily...

EDIT2: a photo from a cove north of Santa Cruz where I stopped to surf a few years ago:

fwiffo · #5

Magnitude 8.9 is extremely strong, I believe in the top 10 strongest recorded with instrumentation. I called my Sister who lives on the beach in the San Francisco area, fortunately she's at work which is a safe distance. She's been told to expect 3 feet, which is definitely enough to ruin her stuff. She heard about it on the way to work so she's trying to get a hold of a friend to get her pug out.

HKA · #6

So many friends in Japan, but like many go players, I suffer from the common go player "social disease" where the first thing I ask is what someone's strength is, instead of their names. I like to think I am not as bad as some about this - I generally get folk's names and where they live - but "Japan" is usually my stopping point. Its not like I am ignorant of Japanese geography - but I have no clue where my friends live.

the watchful blossoms
symbols of fragile nature
one with their viewers

Joaz Banbeck · #7

Worldwide earthquakes in the past 24 hours

Code:

Thu Mar 10 08:54:45 PST 2011   Off The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (38.05, 143.25)   5.2   4.7km
Thu Mar 10 09:08:37 PST 2011   Bali Sea (-6.86, 116.76)   6.5   508.1km
Thu Mar 10 10:10:05 PST 2011   Virgin Islands Region (19.64, -64.16)   3.4   8.0km
Thu Mar 10 11:06:11 PST 2011   Mindoro, Philippines (13.74, 120.72)   5.0   127.0km
Thu Mar 10 11:44:35 PST 2011   Andreanof Islands, Aleutian Is., Alaska (51.42, -173.69)   2.5   11.3km
Thu Mar 10 12:49:08 PST 2011   Central California (36.65, -121.26)   2.8   3.4km
Thu Mar 10 13:49:47 PST 2011   Off The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (38.59, 143.08)   4.7   26.0km
Thu Mar 10 14:44:26 PST 2011   Off The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (38.84, 143.0)   4.9   34.2km
Thu Mar 10 16:14:51 PST 2011   Southern East Pacific Rise (-54.36, -116.8)   5.3   10.0km
Thu Mar 10 16:25:29 PST 2011   Dominican Republic (18.89, -68.85)   4.0   166.1km
Thu Mar 10 16:53:59 PST 2011   Hawaii Region, Hawaii (19.35, -154.98)   2.5   9.0km
Thu Mar 10 17:02:00 PST 2011   Hawaii Region, Hawaii (19.34, -154.98)   2.8   10.2km
Thu Mar 10 18:32:09 PST 2011   Hawaii Region, Hawaii (19.34, -154.98)   2.5   11.1km
Thu Mar 10 18:52:08 PST 2011   Hawaii Region, Hawaii (19.34, -154.98)   2.9   10.7km
Thu Mar 10 18:55:42 PST 2011   Hawaii Region, Hawaii (19.36, -154.99)   2.6   9.3km
Thu Mar 10 20:05:41 PST 2011   Revilla Gigedo Islands Region (19.58, -109.13)   4.5   10.2km
Thu Mar 10 20:28:21 PST 2011   Kuril Islands (47.84, 154.24)   4.8   39.6km
Thu Mar 10 20:51:25 PST 2011   Central California (35.34, -118.56)   3.4   8.6km
Thu Mar 10 21:46:24 PST 2011   Near The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (38.32, 142.36)   8.9   24.4km  <<<<<<<<<<<
Thu Mar 10 22:06:11 PST 2011   Near The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (39.02, 142.31)   6.4   25.1km
Thu Mar 10 22:07:22 PST 2011   Near The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (36.4, 141.86)   6.4   35.4km
Thu Mar 10 22:15:40 PST 2011   Near The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (36.18, 141.19)   6.8   35.0km
Thu Mar 10 22:18:04 PST 2011   Hawaii Region, Hawaii (19.35, -154.99)   3.2   9.5km
Thu Mar 10 22:25:51 PST 2011   Off The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (38.1, 144.55)   7.1   19.7km
Thu Mar 10 22:48:47 PST 2011   Off The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (37.99, 142.76)   6.3   22.3km
Thu Mar 10 22:57:15 PST 2011   Near The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (35.75, 140.99)   6.3   30.2km
Thu Mar 10 23:11:00 PST 2011   Off The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (37.89, 142.73)   5.8   30.0km
Thu Mar 10 23:13:47 PST 2011   Off The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (36.05, 142.34)   5.9   28.5km
Thu Mar 10 23:14:59 PST 2011   Near The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (36.64, 141.81)   6.3   25.0km
Thu Mar 10 23:25:33 PST 2011   Off The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (37.91, 144.62)   6.1   15.0km
Thu Mar 10 23:28:12 PST 2011   Near The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (36.8, 141.91)   6.1   24.0km
Thu Mar 10 23:32:13 PST 2011   Southern California (33.5, -116.57)   3.2   9.0km
Thu Mar 10 23:38:27 PST 2011   Near The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (39.25, 142.78)   5.9   29.1km
Thu Mar 10 23:42:55 PST 2011   Near The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (36.4, 141.91)   5.8   29.9km
Thu Mar 10 23:54:45 PST 2011   Near The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (37.74, 141.56)   5.7   45.3km
Thu Mar 10 23:56:16 PST 2011   Off The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (37.13, 142.3)   5.6   34.0km
Fri Mar 11 00:01:59 PST 2011   Off The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (37.07, 142.73)   5.9   22.6km
Fri Mar 11 00:10:31 PST 2011   Near The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (36.39, 140.63)   5.5   30.4km
Fri Mar 11 00:12:05 PST 2011   Near The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (36.6, 141.55)   6.2   19.8km
Fri Mar 11 00:15:41 PST 2011   Off The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (37.03, 144.61)   6.2   27.8km
Fri Mar 11 00:19:24 PST 2011   Off The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (36.2, 142.0)   6.5   19.9km
Fri Mar 11 00:31:08 PST 2011   Near The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (37.42, 141.2)   6.1   25.0km
Fri Mar 11 00:40:56 PST 2011   Near The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (37.46, 141.12)   5.9   38.6km
Fri Mar 11 00:46:48 PST 2011   Off The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (37.42, 142.45)   5.5   37.3km
Fri Mar 11 00:52:26 PST 2011   Near The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (36.76, 141.91)   5.4   35.8km
Fri Mar 11 00:58:26 PST 2011   Hawaii Region, Hawaii (19.34, -154.99)   4.6   9.3km
Fri Mar 11 01:00:20 PST 2011   Near The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (37.05, 141.96)   5.2   20.0km
Fri Mar 11 01:03:38 PST 2011   Hawaii Region, Hawaii (19.34, -154.95)   3.3   31.4km
Fri Mar 11 01:04:10 PST 2011   Off The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (37.29, 142.65)   5.4   30.5km
Fri Mar 11 01:05:23 PST 2011   Island Of Hawaii, Hawaii (19.37, -155.0)   2.8   8.5km
Fri Mar 11 01:07:01 PST 2011   Hawaii Region, Hawaii (19.34, -154.98)   2.5   0.1km
Fri Mar 11 01:09:15 PST 2011   Off The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (37.71, 143.26)   5.5   36.2km
Fri Mar 11 01:10:26 PST 2011   Island Of Hawaii, Hawaii (19.35, -155.0)   2.8   5.4km
Fri Mar 11 01:14:36 PST 2011   Hawaii Region, Hawaii (19.32, -154.97)   2.8   11.0km
Fri Mar 11 01:24:53 PST 2011   Hawaii Region, Hawaii (19.35, -154.99)   2.9   8.7km
Fri Mar 11 01:33:58 PST 2011   Island Of Hawaii, Hawaii (19.38, -155.01)   3.0   7.6km
Fri Mar 11 01:37:08 PST 2011   Near The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (35.87, 141.58)   5.4   29.9km
Fri Mar 11 01:42:22 PST 2011   Near The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (39.43, 142.74)   5.2   30.2km
Fri Mar 11 01:45:07 PST 2011   Hawaii Region, Hawaii (19.29, -154.94)   2.7   10.8km
Fri Mar 11 01:47:02 PST 2011   Near The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (39.68, 142.93)   5.5   29.7km
Fri Mar 11 01:59:57 PST 2011   Off The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (36.7, 142.2)   5.2   41.6km
Fri Mar 11 02:10:35 PST 2011   Near The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (39.24, 142.77)   6.0   28.9km
Fri Mar 11 02:20:27 PST 2011   Off The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (36.96, 142.28)   5.6   21.7km
Fri Mar 11 02:28:44 PST 2011   Off The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (39.44, 143.53)   5.9   29.3km
Fri Mar 11 02:35:36 PST 2011   Near The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (37.04, 141.29)   5.3   25.8km
Fri Mar 11 02:45:46 PST 2011   Off The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (38.46, 143.59)   5.5   41.1km
Fri Mar 11 02:52:08 PST 2011   Off The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (38.53, 143.34)   5.0   29.9km
Fri Mar 11 02:56:23 PST 2011   Oklahoma (35.49, -97.09)   3.2   4.7km
Fri Mar 11 02:58:06 PST 2011   Near The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (39.06, 142.21)   5.1   30.3km
Fri Mar 11 03:00:51 PST 2011   Near The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (37.81, 141.48)   5.6   28.7km
Fri Mar 11 03:10:58 PST 2011   Near The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (35.53, 141.85)   5.5   27.7km
Fri Mar 11 03:13:12 PST 2011   Near The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (36.45, 141.78)   5.5   18.2km
Fri Mar 11 03:16:51 PST 2011   Near The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (36.61, 141.89)   5.5   36.6km
Fri Mar 11 03:21:02 PST 2011   Near The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (35.75, 140.91)   5.7   25.2km
Fri Mar 11 03:36:39 PST 2011   Near The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (39.27, 142.52)   6.5   11.6km
Fri Mar 11 03:44:28 PST 2011   Off The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (36.7, 142.23)   5.8   31.0km
Fri Mar 11 03:46:47 PST 2011   Near The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (36.03, 141.05)   5.8   47.5km
Fri Mar 11 03:54:02 PST 2011   Off The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (36.98, 142.53)   5.1   45.0km
Fri Mar 11 03:56:16 PST 2011   Near The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (36.35, 141.5)   5.5   39.4km
Fri Mar 11 04:04:16 PST 2011   Off The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (36.35, 142.7)   5.1   38.4km
Fri Mar 11 04:12:53 PST 2011   Near The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (38.05, 142.54)   5.9   21.6km
Fri Mar 11 04:24:37 PST 2011   Near The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (36.52, 141.7)   5.3   27.8km
Fri Mar 11 04:28:45 PST 2011   Near The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (36.16, 141.66)   5.2   29.3km
Fri Mar 11 04:33:19 PST 2011   Near The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (38.37, 142.59)   5.2   29.7km
Fri Mar 11 04:34:22 PST 2011   Off The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (36.91, 143.73)   5.3   39.0km
Fri Mar 11 04:49:01 PST 2011   Near The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (36.15, 141.71)   5.6   25.0km
Fri Mar 11 04:54:52 PST 2011   Near The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (38.5, 142.12)   5.4   36.7km
Fri Mar 11 04:59:21 PST 2011   Near The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (36.12, 141.76)   5.3   24.9km
Fri Mar 11 05:02:43 PST 2011   Near The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (36.75, 141.88)   5.3   30.2km
Fri Mar 11 05:05:36 PST 2011   Northern California (38.84, -122.76)   2.5   2.1km
Fri Mar 11 05:15:45 PST 2011   Near The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (37.39, 141.88)   5.1   30.1km
Fri Mar 11 05:16:50 PST 2011   Near The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (36.3, 141.73)   5.8   30.1km
Fri Mar 11 05:21:37 PST 2011   Central Alaska (64.12, -147.32)   2.5   17.1km
Fri Mar 11 05:31:55 PST 2011   Near The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (39.15, 142.83)   5.1   25.0km
Fri Mar 11 05:34:36 PST 2011   Near The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (36.24, 141.85)   5.6   35.5km
Fri Mar 11 05:42:27 PST 2011   Off The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (37.41, 142.0)   4.9   25.3km
Fri Mar 11 05:43:10 PST 2011   Off The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (38.97, 144.2)   5.6   25.2km
Fri Mar 11 05:48:38 PST 2011   Off The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (38.42, 143.06)   5.3   25.1km
Fri Mar 11 05:55:28 PST 2011   Near The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (38.03, 142.83)   5.2   24.9km
Fri Mar 11 05:58:50 PST 2011   Near The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (36.68, 141.77)   4.9   25.3km
Fri Mar 11 06:00:38 PST 2011   Near The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (36.15, 140.84)   5.5   30.8km
Fri Mar 11 06:10:39 PST 2011   Near The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (37.57, 141.96)   5.2   25.5km
Fri Mar 11 06:18:29 PST 2011   Arkansas (35.27, -92.33)   2.6   4.0km
Fri Mar 11 06:20:20 PST 2011   Off The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (37.94, 143.18)   5.1   25.2km
Fri Mar 11 06:26:31 PST 2011   Off The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (37.43, 142.25)   5.4   13.2km
Fri Mar 11 06:44:08 PST 2011   Near The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (36.65, 140.76)   5.1   25.1km
Fri Mar 11 06:54:04 PST 2011   Near The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (35.91, 141.81)   5.4   24.9km
Fri Mar 11 06:56:16 PST 2011   Near The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (35.97, 141.36)   5.8   25.0km
Fri Mar 11 07:01:39 PST 2011   Near The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (39.08, 142.38)   5.0   26.0km
Fri Mar 11 07:13:15 PST 2011   Near The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (35.99, 141.79)   6.2   18.9km
Fri Mar 11 07:19:38 PST 2011   Near The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (36.23, 141.85)   5.6   25.0km
Fri Mar 11 07:32:34 PST 2011   Off The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (37.21, 142.23)   5.2   25.0km
Fri Mar 11 07:36:16 PST 2011   Near The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (38.9, 142.72)   4.9   24.9km
Fri Mar 11 07:42:05 PST 2011   Near The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (36.06, 141.51)   5.4   15.8km
Fri Mar 11 07:46:02 PST 2011   Near The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (36.02, 141.95)   5.0   19.7km
Fri Mar 11 07:50:59 PST 2011   Off The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan (37.4, 142.21)   5.0   24.9km

The aftershocks keep hitting in a pattern that doesn't decline in frequency as much as one normally expects. This suggests that the so-calle 'main' earthquake is just one of many foreshocks to something bigger. I fear that we may see something in the 9 or even 10 range within the next week, somewhere along the western edge of the Pacific plate, from Alaska to the Pilipines.

fwiffo · #8

That's a lot of strong aftershocks. That 7.1 aftershock was stronger than the catastrophic earthquake in Haiti last year. Thank goodness Japan is much better prepared, though with an earthquake and tsunami this size, there's no way to avoid large amounts of devastation.

HermanHiddema · #9

Joaz Banbeck wrote:

The aftershocks keep hitting in a pattern that doesn't decline in frequency as much as one normally expects. This suggests that the so-calle 'main' earthquake is just one of many foreshocks to something bigger. I fear that we may see something in the 9 or even 10 range within the next week, somewhere along the western edge of the Pacific plate, from Alaska to the Pilipines.

That is an extraordinary prediction, do you have any expertise in this area? There is no record in human history of an earthquake in the 10 range, the worst ever recorded was 9.5, and this 8.9 is up in the top 10 worst earthquakes ever recorded.

BaghwanB · **#10**

BBC is claiming it is the biggest earthquake to hit Japan in 150 years.

Last year I drove up the West Coast highway and saw the tsunami warning signs at the low points in the road all the way from Redwoods to Olympic Peninsula. Glad I'm not daring to drive it today.

HI seemed to make it through OK for the most part.

My thoughts go out to those affected around the whole Pacific Rim.

Bruce "Weatherman" Young

Kirby · **#11**

HKA wrote:

...I generally get folk's names and where they live - but "Japan" is usually my stopping point. Its not like I am ignorant of Japanese geography - but I have no clue where my friends live...

Does "Sendai" ring a bell? It looks like they were hit pretty hard in the northeast.

(Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Senda ... nd_tsunami)

Joaz Banbeck · **#12**

HermanHiddema wrote:

Joaz Banbeck wrote:

The aftershocks keep hitting in a pattern that doesn't decline in frequency as much as one normally expects. This suggests that the so-calle 'main' earthquake is just one of many foreshocks to something bigger. I fear that we may see something in the 9 or even 10 range within the next week, somewhere along the western edge of the Pacific plate, from Alaska to the Pilipines.

That is an extraordinary prediction, do you have any expertise in this area? There is no record in human history of an earthquake in the 10 range, the worst ever recorded was 9.5, and this 8.9 is up in the top 10 worst earthquakes ever recorded.

No formal expertise, just the knowledge of a amateur science geek who has lived for decades in one of the other earthquake prone areas.
One of the rules of thumb that has been rather durable is that the frequency of aftershocks for N days after the quake is 1/N. That is, there should be half as many aftershocks on the second day, 1/10 on the tenth day, etc. So far, as we approach the second day, there are too many aftershocks to fit that pattern. Whether or not they are statistically significant, I can't say. We would need a few more days' worth of data to be sure.

rubin427 · **#13**

Does anyone know of any major Japanese news outlets that also have English translations? Specifically, I am looking for coverage of the quake from Japaneses sources (in English).

I know a couple places for reading Korean news in English (i.e: http://english.chosun.com/svc/list.html?catid=5 ), but I don't know any similar Japanese sources.

Kirby · **#14**

rubin427 wrote:

Does anyone know of any major Japanese news outlets that also have English translations? Specifically, I am looking for coverage of the quake from Japaneses sources (in English).

I know a couple places for reading Korean news in English (i.e: http://english.chosun.com/svc/list.html?catid=5 ), but I don't know any similar Japanese sources.

I like Nikkei:
http://e.nikkei.com/e/fr/freetop.aspx

In Japanese:
http://www.nikkei.com/

(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nihon_Keizai_Shimbun)

Of course, there are many others.

hyperpape · **#15**

Joaz: how reliable is this rule of thumb? Unless it's perfect, you can't tell much just because 9.5 or 10 earthquakes are so incredibly rare.

Perception · **#16**

rubin427 wrote:

Does anyone know of any major Japanese news outlets that also have English translations? Specifically, I am looking for coverage of the quake from Japaneses sources (in English).

I know a couple places for reading Korean news in English (i.e: http://english.chosun.com/svc/list.html?catid=5 ), but I don't know any similar Japanese sources.

The Mainichi Shimbun, Asahi Shimbun, and Yomiuri Shimbun have some news in English.
http://mdn.mainichi.jp/
http://www.asahi.com/english/
http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/

EdLee · **#17**

From the Associated Press-- http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110311/ap_ ... ke_science

Quote:

Two days earlier, the region was rattled by a magnitude-7.2 quake that scientists now consider a foreshock.
Foreshocks are basically earthquakes and are only identified as precursors
after another quake follows them. After such an event,
there's only a 5 percent chance of an even bigger quake coming later.

(Emphasis added.) Let's hope the AP is correct.

stalkor · **#18**

I just read that this earthquake created a crack in the earth's crust, 290 km long and 90 km wide, so analysed by the USGS.

Joaz Banbeck · **#19**

stalkor wrote:

I just read that this earthquake created a crack in the earth's crust, 290 km long and 90 km wide, so analysed by the USGS.

A crack? Created by a subduction fault? Do you have a link for that?

stalkor · **#20**

David Applegate, a senior science adviser for earthquake and geologic hazards for the U.S. Geological Survey, said the 8.9-magnitude quake ruptured a patch of the earth's crust 150 miles long and 50 miles across.

extremely difficult to find a good source but here is the link in english

http://www.ajc.com/news/nation-world/us ... 69048.html

Japanese earthquake

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