Finally a real tournament

Javaness2 · #1

It's been years, but the only true tournament format has made a come back. This year, the pro qualification will be run as a round robin.
https://eurogofed.org/proqualification/index_2025.html
45 minutes with 20 seconds Fischer style might be a bit on the fast side, but who cares when you will have a proper crosstable to enjoy at the end of the event.

There are currently nine EGF professionals. A third of them have regressed back into amateur ratings , whilst one is banned from competition because he comes from Russia.
https://www.eurogofed.org/pros/
Who will the tenth be?

I would guess either Lukas Podpera, because he has to win eventually. Or Lukas Neirynck, because although the weakest player he seems to be in form.

kvasir · #2

Javaness2 wrote:

45 minutes with 20 seconds Fischer style might be a bit on the fast side, but who cares when you will have a proper crosstable to enjoy at the end of the event.

The time control seems similar to other tournaments with two rounds per day.

Round robin seems like the right way. Having everyone play everyone else not only seems fair it is also a good opportunity for the players to grow. I think some of the players might not even have played a tournament game with each other for a few years and that is about to change.

For predictions one could start with a list of the players by rating.

jlt · #3

Javaness2 wrote:

I would guess either Lukas Podpera, because he has to win eventually. Or Lukas Neirynck, because although the weakest player he seems to be in form.

The correct spelling is Lucas Neirynck.

Javaness2 · #4

I normally get his surname wrong instead.

Ferran · #5

Javaness2 wrote:

I normally get his surname wrong instead.

Actually.. when I read Jlt's answer I kept checking and thinking... "I don't see it. Did he already correct it? Is it edit... Oh! The forename"

Take care.

jlt · #6

The list of players is here:
https://eurogofed.org/proqualification/ ... ml#players

A bit surprised not to see Valerii Krushelnytskyi, recent winner of the Grand Prix finale.

Javaness2 · #7

Maybe he can't afford to invest a week playing there

Wolfhtt · #8

Since i'm learning how to code, i've dedided to write a python script to simulate the most likely winners of this tournament as an exercise.

The simulation takes into consideration the winning chances that the players have to win against each other based only on their GOR rating difference. For those interested, you can find the formula HERE.
It's not meant to be a 100% realistic prediction since there are many more factors to take into account (e.g. some players may have a rating that does not represent their current strength, some might feel the pressure of such an important tournament more than others, some might have better/worse odds to beat another specific player because of their playing style match-up and so on...).

That said, these are the results after 10 million simulations:

Code:

PLAYER              N. OF TOURNAMENTS WON:   WIN %:       NUMBER OF VICTORIES PER TOURNAMENT:
Lukáš Podpěra       4,372,607                43.73%       1 / 2.29
Benjamin Dréan-G.   1,962,310                19.62%       1 / 5.1
Ashe Vazquez        1,781,555                17.82%       1 / 5.61
Dominik Bővíz       434,108                  4.34%        1 / 23.04
Viktor Lin          384,173                  3.84%        1 / 26.03
Jonas Welticke      367,656                  3.68%        1 / 27.2
Rémi Campagnie      251,537                  2.52%        1 / 39.76
Matias Pankoke      123,403                  1.23%        1 / 81.04
Lucas Neirynck      152,638                  1.53%        1 / 65.51
Benjamin Teuber     100,795                  1.01%        1 / 99.21
Yuze Xing           31,484                   0.31%        1 / 317.62
Vsevolod Ovsiienko  37,734                   0.38%        1 / 265.01

Also, here are the number of players tied for 1st place at the end of the round-robin (before tie-breaks):
N. PLAYERS TIED:   N. OF TIMES:  %
One                6,948,103     69.48%
Two                2,188,134     21.88%
Three              640,347       6.406%
Four               167,288       1.673%
Five               46,059        0.461%
Six                8,992         0.08992%
Seven              864           0.00864%
Eight              162           0.00162%
Nine               47            0.00047%
Ten                4             0.000004%
Eleven             0             0%

Chances that tie-break matches will have to be played: 4.6% (happens when 3 players are tied and they all have 1 win and 1 loss against the other two or when there are 4+ players tied)

Chances that Lukáš will lose in a tie-break final (only way there is for him to lose yet another pro qualification final with this round robin format): 1.04%

Javaness2 · #9

Your predictions table is certainly fun to read, but shouldn't you use the updated formula for Go Rating?

Wolfhtt · **#10**

Javaness2 wrote:

Your predictions table is certainly fun to read, but shouldn't you use the updated formula for Go Rating?

You are 100% right. For some reason i thought that the new formula only affected the gor changes after tournament games and not the expected winrate. I edited my previous post with the new simulation.

kvasir · **#11**

There are 5 players that are still in the run for 1st place after round 7. Tomorrow (today) will have 4 games between these players.

DamirMedak · **#12**

It is getting very tense in Vienna, Go7 club.

In 10th round of the Qualification tournament for 10th European professional player, decisive games are being played on the first two tables:

https://eurogofed.org/proqualification/index_2025.html

Benjamin DG (on 8/10), Lukas Podpera and Remi (on 7/10) are having chances to clinch the 1st place.
Currently, Lukan is playing with Benjamin and Remi is playing Lucas Neirynck.

The 11th round has the following pairings for the top three:

Benjamin Drean-Guenaizia 7d (b) vs. Ashe Vazquez 7d (w)
Yuze Xing 6d (b) vs. Lukas Podpera 7d (w)
Remi Campagnie 6d (b) vs. Jonas Welticke 6d (w)

EDIT: In a dramatic middlegame Benjamin Drean-Guenaizia, 7d, from France won the game against Lukas Podpera (7d) from Czechia. At the same, time Remi Campagnie (6d), from France, lost the game against Lucas Neirynck, 6d, from Belgium. These results allowed Benjamin to take a two points lead before the last round and claim the title of 10th European Go Professional player!

The 8th European Professional Championships is entering the second half: 7 pros are playing 7 rounds.

https://eurogofed.org/epc/2025.html

In case of a three-way tie (for any of the places), professionals will play tie-break after the round 7 tomorrow.

jlt · **#13**

19.62% won. Congratulations Ben0!

Javaness2 · **#14**

The only player on record as saying he didn't want to turn professional. Well, sometimes you mess up.

kvasir · **#15**

Javaness2 wrote:

The only player on record as saying he didn't want to turn professional. Well, sometimes you mess up.

wuwei

Finally a real tournament

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