I'm currently 4k on kgs (borderline 5k, though). Been playing for a little over a year now (started when i was 18), and have around 200-250 games played on kgs, including free "screwing around" games. I have confidence that I can reach dan level if I put the effort into it; there's not really much else that would stop me, I think. The problem is the effort, though. I am usually pretty lax about doing tsumego and studying - I generally learn by playing. I'm hoping to take advantage of the summer break from school to start seriously studying, and get as close to dan level as possible (wouldn't it be nice to reach dan by the end of summer? probably a pipe dream, though). We'll see how this works out for me.

I believe that anyone can get to at least dan strength, no matter what your situation. It may require more or less effort for you than for others, but there's no glass ceiling, per se. Natural talent, I think, is only a discriminating factor near high dan / pro level.

A friend of mine once said, "You know, I believe everybody can reach 5 Dan." However, he was probably referring to the minimum potential of each person, starting at a young age, etc.

I do believe most people can at least get 1d. 1d is really not much, not to insult anybody.

I don't think there's a usual plateau at 1d, it's just that some people randomly have blocks at certain levels.

There's nothing special about 1d, just like there's nothing special about star points. People only play on Tengen all the time as a middle game 'best guess' reduction move sometimes because they are attracted to the dot! It's just a dot! It's probably not the perfect spot for the reduction.

Here's proof of how arbitrary these 'plateaus' are. Once you get to 1d, I'm telling you now, unless you're abnormally optimistic, you'll think you are still very weak. If and when you get to 5 Dan, be it American 5 Dan (weak), Chinese 5 Dan (a lot less weak), or what have you, still, you will think you suck at this game and have a great deal of learning ahead of you. I'll tell you this very bluntly:
I'm 5 Dan KGS (usually ><) and in Canada, and 7 Dan on Oro... I suck badly! Still so weak! Yesterday, I actually read the kibitz of a Kyu player who said "They're so strong, I wish I could be like them one day." I admit that I was happy to read it, because I thought just like that like 3 years back when I watched 2 Kyu games with great awe, and asked them how to get so strong after the game.

Hehe, all ranks in Go are just as special as 1d or 5d, or 7d. I was very happy when someone told me I had leveled up to 24 Kyu.

To answer the original question of the thread - I boldly believe I can reach 7D/KGS9D/Pro level.
Take into account that, having recently finishing high school, I've been focusing my life on only Go. I play and do some studying every day, and I'm working a new job in order to raise funds for Guo Juan's learn Go in China thing. I also spent 5 months at KBC in Korea studying Go, until last December. I intend to continue my training for a few years more, if that's what it takes, focusing only on Go.
I started when I was almost 17. Too old! But it seems I can't complain

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I think about this very often. When I was 25k or so and played almost exclusively with some 20-something kyu friends, we were all shocked and amazed at the strength of our 17k "teacher". Of course at that time, 5k players were incomprehensibly strong, right up there with pros. Jump ahead a few years and I am 5k - yikes! I'm terrible at Go, haha. I have my goal of shodan, and sure, when I make it I will still consider myself weak. However, it's the improvement that counts, and I'm happy as long as I'm moving forward (or, at least, not falling back )

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Good to hear you're doing tsumego, now I can drop that pet peeve

I took a look at some of your games and while I'm only slightly stronger I think I can tell that you would probably benefit from reading and thinking about "Direction of play". It wasn't an eye opener for me like some books but it made me think in those terms and I think that has helped.

Also, don't play forcing moves out of habit. If you don't see a good outcome of a sequence, don't play it. You'll strengthen your opponent in the process, and that gives him strength to fight in other areas. After the game, ask yourself "what was it that got me into this mess?". Often the mistake is earlier than one thinks.

One important aspect of doing tsumego is that it practices reading. You can't let your opponent get away with certain things. If he can be killed he should be killed (unless it's a 3pt kill or so). If you can up your reading a little so you can punish your opponent's overplays and think a little about the direction I believe you can take some steps up the kyu-ladder

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I started playing seriously/frequently at the age of 27, in July of 2008. At that time, my goal certainly was to reach 1 Dan. That goal did me a lot of harm. At some point I got single-mindedly fixated on rank. After a loss, I would feel miserable (are you this weak?) - but after a win, I would hesitate to play again for fear of spoiling the subtle rise in my rank graph (next game, you could lose it all).

Recently, I set a different goal not related directly to rank. The lack of self review has always been an issue for me. So, I plan to review 50 of my own games before the US go congress. That’s approximately 2 serious games and 2 self reviews for every three days that pass until the congress. Unlike goals related to rank, this is a goal I can make steady progress towards, and even put on the calendar.

The change in my outlook has been dramatic. Of course I still enjoy a win, but now I am also grateful for a loss. Because now every loss ends in a game review, and that game review gets me one step closer to my goal. I appreciate the opportunity my opponent has given me to find my mistakes - and hopefully avoid them in the future.

Strength is not everything.

"Everyone can make shodan" is a mantra I hear often. And it has value, as any goal can have value. It sells books and lessons and fuels ambition. But it also has a dark side.

Because most of us DO NOT get there. Admittedly, with the internet, and access to more players any time day or night, it is definitely easier, but most of us do not get there. The vast majority, actually that pick up the game do not get there, and most who play with some seriousness do not get there.

"Do not get there", I use this phrase because I reject the alternative. Because the other phrase that could be used is that these folks are not smart enough, or study badly, or are wasting their time - in short - they "fail".

I have made this argument on godisc - I looked back at the 40 odd kyu players at the 2nd Go Congress I knew and know - and half of them are still kyu players. These are guys who study, who are smart, who attend congresses and lectures and lessons and workshops. 25 years later, they did not get there.

They did NOT fail. These are the guys who run tournaments and clubs and support the AGA. They teach beginners and they open club and play the new guy and dont refuse to play weaker players. They certainly do not have tilde's on their ranks on KGS.

They are not stupid, they are not wasting their time, and they have not failed. They love the game in a way that many distracted by success will never understand.

We simply cannot afford to make them feel that this game is not for them, because it is.

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My days of not taking you seriously are certainly coming to a middle

When I started playing go, I had the ambition to get to shodan until summer 2012 when the European Go Congress would be in my home city. Now I know that this was utopian, because there has been no progress for the last 15 months - at that time it was the first time I could make it to the SDK ranks (on KGS), now I'm back to DDK - back to the roots!

I really want to find a way of double or triple liking this post somehow ... A wonderful way of putting a hugely important point.

So what will you do once you get to shodan? Just stop playing? Or set yourself another goal, like get to 3d?

And what will you do once you definitely plateau and stop improving? Just stop playing?

Or do you think Go will be more fun when you get to shodan? It won't. It will be the exact same game. Like Alakazam said, you won't feel strong when you're shodan. If anything, you will feel you're weaker. I haven't seen any cocky shodans. I'm only SDK myself but I've heard from many very strong people that ranks up to even KGS 5d are very weak, in the sense of their game being erratic and full of holes. If you feel that right now your game is erratic and stupid - you will still feel that when you're 5d.

Sure, you will know you're stronger than a 5k, but that will only give you as much satisfaction as being stronger than 15k gives you now.

Personally, I have a strength-based goal too. My goal is to play the biggest point.

I started playing Go when I was 30-31 or so, pretty fast, maybe one year, I got to around 6k and then nothing.
I wasn't too disturbed, except for that I suddenly wasn't able to beat my old "rivals".
I "realized" that I probably never would reach dan level, and just kept playing for fun.
Playing every week at the club, teaching beginners and watching them pass me in strength...
But then a couple of years later I got a stone stronger, and next year another stone.

Pretty recently, after 10 years of playing, I reached 2k, which is a "magic" rank here in Sweden, because up to 2k we can chose our ranks ourselves, but to get to 1k you have to "earn points" by winning more than you lose in tournaments. (I actually used the same system from 6k on, so that nobody could question my rank, but as 2k it's more "for real").

Now, I'm positive that I will reach 1d one day. It may take a couple of years, especially since I rarely study or do tsumego, or even review my games.
I just enjoy playing, and I am too impatient to read books that I tend to find quite boring. (Maybe I could become 1d now if I could get myself to use the time, I rarely use more than 15-20 min out of the 60 min or so available.)

When people asks me for advice on books, I usually say that they should buy a book about something they enjoy reading about, not about what they want to improve in.
And this is my approach to Go: I like to play so I play. I doubt I'll ever get tired of playing, unless I get too concerned about my rank and start doing things I dislike just to improve, eg reading booring books.

/Mats

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I think there is value in choosing a concrete goal like "I will reach 1d", as a way to spur yourself on and gauge your progress. A goal like "I want to feel like I play good moves" may be more noble, but it's much harder to judge success. I'm 3k now on KGS, and I have a goal set for when I'll reach 2k (July). I think setting goals like rubin427 suggested of reviewing a certain number of games or maybe doing a certain number of tsumego are also good. You could also set a goal of winning a tournament of some kind. But all these things have a common element: you know at the end whether you've meet your goal or not. In fact maybe just saying "I will reach 1d someday" is too loose!

For instance, your goal could be to win the WAGC.

I have noted similar numbers. I think that it is wonderful that half of them are dan players now.

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Interesting (to me anyway ) philosophical question: Would you still found it as wonderful if you knew for a fact that that half of them enjoyed the game less now because of the attitude change they may have required to gain that strength?

It's an aside obviously, but for me the wonderful-ness is the passion and enjoyment they get from playing and being there, regardless of whether they are 6 dan or 20 kyu. If that passion has gone up, that's great even if their rank has gone down

I helped you with that

This has been an interesting read. Starting as I have in my 50s, the thought did cross my mind of just how far would I be able to advance. With steady study, play, and problems it looks like that SDK isn't a pipe dream and could actually be achievable. I'm not obsessing over rank but as long as I'm putting in the same amount of study, play, etc., might as well get some credit for all the work.

I appreciated the comments of even if you hit SDK, shodan or above, how you feel weak at Go. At least I understand now that even with advancement there isn't some magical power or knowledge that is imparted. Reading the comments on the Malkovich games and listening to Josh on his videos confirm this. I don't feel so bad now as I worry and ponder moves to be made on my DGS games. With advancement you just worry at a higher level.

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I assume you are referring to my goal. Please don't get the wrong impression; I am well aware that I will still feel weak at shodan level, just as I feel weak now though I used to worship 5-kyus, as I mentioned earlier. Ultimately I play Go for fun, but like emeraldemon said, having a goal is a way to motivate me to improve more. After shodan, who knows? Of course I will not stop playing, maybe I will set a goal of 2d or 3d. My goals, and all numeric ranks for that matter, are only secondary to enjoyment of the game.

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@ Topazg: What is this "attitude change" to which you are referring? Are you implying that some people only get stronger by gritting their teeth and turning what used to be a fun game into hard work? If so, is this something you've often observed, or was this just a purely "philosophical" inquiry?

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Patience, grasshopper.

Ok, I will confess it was a slightly contrived way of making a point. However, I have someone in mind who really enjoyed the game at 13-14k, strived very hard to get stronger, and went through a patch of improvement to about 9-10k where they weren't enjoying the game so much. It's all been about getting to SDK or wherever the target is, and has become hard work. At 9-10k they stop working at it so hard and play to enjoy again, and have stopped improving but are enjoying playing - however, no more than they did at 13-14k.

I suppose the point I was trying to make is I'd rather see more players, all happy and enjoying themselves, than the same players that have gotten stronger.