OK. Well, finally, back to the question of confidence in thermography. Thermography is a proven method for finding the average value of any finite combinatorial game. In go terms, that means any non-ko position. Berlekamp extended thermography to most ko and superko positions, and I extended it to multiple ko and superko positions. However, the values of ko and superko thermography are not guaranteed to be average values. Berlekamp called them mast values, not average values.
But that's not the question before us, which is about the non-ko theory. The theory concerning the average values is proven. So any real doubts must be about the walls of the thermographs. The walls of the thermograph are defined for each temperature as the result of minimax play at that temperature, depending on who plays first. Here is the game which first raised doubts.
Gérard TAILLE wrote:
Let's take a very simple example:
- Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Bc
$$ -----------------
$$ | . . b a . . . |
$$ | X X X O . O O |
$$ | . . X O . O X |
$$ | . X X X O O X |
$$ | . . . X X X X |
$$ | . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . |
$$ -----------------[/go]
if you claim a go player that the position above has a miai value = 1 she will have some difficulty with the credibility of the theory.
We'll get to the difficulty below. First, let's write the game using slash notation.
- Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Wc
$$ -----------------
$$ | . 2 1 3 . . . |
$$ | X X X O . O O |
$$ | . . X O . O X |
$$ | . X X X O O X |
$$ | . . . X X X X |
$$ | . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . |
$$ -----------------[/go]
White to play plays the hanetsugi, for a net score on the top of -4; i.e., 4 points for White from Black's point of view. The right side of the game looks like this:
-4}
- Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Bc
$$ -----------------
$$ | . . 3 1 2 . . |
$$ | X X X O . O O |
$$ | . . X O . O X |
$$ | . X X X O O X |
$$ | . . . X X X X |
$$ | . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . |
$$ -----------------[/go]
Black to play can play this hanetsugi, for a net score of -2. So far the game looks like this.
{-2|-4}
The vertical slash separates the Black follower or followers from the White follower or followers.
- Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Bc
$$ -----------------
$$ | . . 1 2 a . . |
$$ | X X X O . O O |
$$ | . . X O . O X |
$$ | . X X X O O X |
$$ | . . . X X X X |
$$ | . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . |
$$ -----------------[/go]
Black can also play the sagari with sente, for a net score of -3.
Edit: It turns out that the sagari is dominated by the oki at
a. When I wrote this, I was under the misapprehension that they were equivalent.
- Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Bc
$$ -----------------
$$ | . . 1 . 3 . . |
$$ | X X X O . O O |
$$ | . . X O . O X |
$$ | . X X X O O X |
$$ | . . . X X X X |
$$ | . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . |
$$ -----------------[/go]

kills the White group, for a net score of +21.
Edit: My mistake, which Schachus caught. The oki threatens to kill, but not the sagari.
Edit: The correct analysis of the game follows.
- Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Bc Oki
$$ -----------------
$$ | . . 3 2 1 . . |
$$ | X X X O 4 O O |
$$ | . . X O . O X |
$$ | . X X X O O X |
$$ | . . . X X X X |
$$ | . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . |
$$ -----------------[/go]

threatens to kill.

captures the

stone for a net local score of -3.
- Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Bc Oki, White variation
$$ -----------------
$$ | . . 5 3 1 4 . |
$$ | X X X O 2 O O |
$$ | . . X O . O X |
$$ | . X X X O O X |
$$ | . . . X X X X |
$$ | . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . |
$$ -----------------[/go]
White can also live with this

. If Black saves the

stone the net local score is 0, but Black takes gote.
- Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Bc Oki, White variation, White follow-up
$$ -----------------
$$ | . 5 4 6 1 . . |
$$ | X X X O 2 O O |
$$ | . . X O . O X |
$$ | . X X X O O X |
$$ | . . . X X X X |
$$ | . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . |
$$ -----------------[/go]
If Black omits

, White can play the hanetsugi for a net local score of -4.
- Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Bc Black kills
$$ -----------------
$$ | . . . 3 1 . . |
$$ | X X X O . O O |
$$ | . . X O . O X |
$$ | . X X X O O X |
$$ | . . . X X X X |
$$ | . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . |
$$ -----------------[/go]
Finally, if Black kills the net local score is 21.
Here is how we write the game.
{{21||-3,{0|-4}},-2|||-4}
This looks a bit complicated. I have added some slashes to help me keep track of the number of moves.
Let's construct the thermograph. The easy way is to do that graphically, but for the purpose of illustration, let's figure out minimax play at different temperatures. We start at temperature 0, i.e., no tax. OC, White to play moves to a net score of -4. Black to play does better with the gote option instead of the sente option and moves to a net score of -2.
Now let's apply a tax of ½ point per move. The resultant game is
{{20||-3,{-½|-3½}},-2½|||-3½}
White to play gets a net score of -3½, Black to play gets a net score of -2½.
We can see where this is going. Let's apply a tax of 1 point per move. The resultant game is
{{19|-3,{-1|-3}},-3|-3}
Bingo. We have found the average value of the game, -3, at temperature 1. Below temperature 1 Black prefers the gote option, but above temperature 1, rising 11 points more, Black can play the sente. We indicate that fact by coloring the mast blue up to temperature 12. This game is ambiguous. You can see the thermograph at #49.
https://www.lifein19x19.com/viewtopic.p ... 84#p260684----
Now let's look at the doubts.
Gérard TAILLE wrote:
Why?
Simply because instead of "a" {the Black hanetsugi} she will clearly see the possibility black "b" {the Black sente} which could very interesting if the environment looks like a tedomari situation with only one remaining 2 gote points (all 1 gote points being miai).
Edit: Now we know that the sente is the oki instead of the sagari, but that does not alter the question.
IOW, if there is another gote on the board that gains 1 point for either player, such as another first line hanetsugi, then Black will prefer to play the sente and then take that gote at temperature 0. The problem being that the thermograph does not reflect that possibility.
Quote:
How can you ignore the adding value of such possibility when, for other situations, you estimate a value with a precision of 1/16 if not still better? She is not wrong is she?
I replied that the thermograph does indicate the possibility of playing the sente by the fact that the mast is colored blue up to temperature 12. I think I should have done more, however. I should have simply added the hanetsugi to the current game and derived the thermograph for it. Maybe this thermograph by itself does not reflect the possibility that the skeptic brought up, but thermography is part of combinatorial game theory, and combinatorial game theory sure does.

Combinatorial games add and subtract, as the name indicates.
Let's add the two games together.
Edit: Derivation corrected for the oki.
{{21||-3,{0|-4}},-2|||-4} + {-1|-3}
I have chosen to make the hanetsugi {-1|-3}, because Gérard added that position himself in #51.
https://www.lifein19x19.com/viewtopic.p ... 89#p260689Now let's find the sum at temperature 1, by applying the tax. That give us
{{19||-3,{-1|-3}},-3|||-3} + {-2|-2}
The average value of this game is -3 - 2 = -5, and the mast is blue up to temperature 12. To draw the thermograph all we have to do now is to find the minimax values at temperature 0. Let's do that on the go board.
- Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Wc White first
$$ ----------------------------------------
$$ | . . 6 4 5 . . O X . . X . 2 1 3 . . .|
$$ | X X X O O O O O X . . X X X X O . O O|
$$ | . . X O . O X X X . . . . . X O . O X|
$$ | . . X X O O X . . . . . . . X X O O X|
$$ | . . . X X X X . . . . . . . . X X X X|
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .|
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .|
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .|[/go]
Gérard pointed out that

dominates

, so this is the only result: a net score of -5.
- Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Bc Black first
$$ ----------------------------------------
$$ | . . 7 5 6 . . O X . . X . . 3 2 1 . .|
$$ | X X X O O O O O X . . X X X X O 4 O O|
$$ | . . X O . O X X X . . . . . X O . O X|
$$ | . . X X O O X . . . . . . . X X O O X|
$$ | . . . X X X X . . . . . . . . X X X X|
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .|
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .|
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .|[/go]
He has also pointed out that the sente is best at temperature 0, so this is the result: a net score of -4.
The thermograph is in #53.
https://www.lifein19x19.com/viewtopic.p ... 92#p260692Note that the sente is reflected in the left wall of the thermograph from temperature 0 to temperature 12, not just in the mast.

This is a better answer to the skeptic, because, while the sente was not reflected below temperature 1 in that thermograph, it was in this one. The point is that each thermograph is for only one game. Every non-dominated option in a game will be represented in at least one thermograph, if not in the thermograph of that game, then in the thermograph of that game plus or minus some other game.
