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 Post subject: LeelaZero yose evaluation
Post #1 Posted: Sat May 19, 2018 8:58 pm 
Lives in gote

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KGS: Tryss
I reviewed one of my game with lizzie when I found an interesting situation :

Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$ White to play
$$ ---------------------------------------
$$ | . . . . . O X . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . X X X . X O . O X . . . . O . . |
$$ | . . X X O O X X O O X X . . . X O . . |
$$ | . X . O . . O O O , . . . X . X . O . |
$$ | . X O . . O . X X X . X . . . . X O . |
$$ | . . X O . . . . . . X O . X . . X O . |
$$ | X . X O . . . O . O O . O . . X O O . |
$$ | . X O . . . . . . . . . . O . X O O X |
$$ | O X O . . O . . . O . . . . . X O X . |
$$ | . O O X . X O O . , . . O O . X X . . |
$$ | . . . . . X X O . X . X X X . . . X . |
$$ | . . O O . . . X X . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . O X O . O X . . . . . . . . . . X . |
$$ | . O X X O . . . . . . . X X . X X O . |
$$ | . O X . . . . O . O . . . O . . O . O |
$$ | . a X b O O O X O , . X X . . O . O . |
$$ | . X O X X X X X X O . O O O . . . . . |
$$ | . X O . . . . . X O . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ---------------------------------------[/go]


Try to guess how LZ evaluate a and b. What is better and by how much (in winrate)?

LZ prefer a

If White play a, LZ gives Black
3-4% chance to win


If white play b, LZ gives Black
40-50% chance to win (the exact percentage is very variable and change fast with playout)



What's interesting is that this gives you by how many points LZ think White is ahead.

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 Post subject: Re: LeelaZero yose evaluation
Post #2 Posted: Sun May 20, 2018 10:32 am 
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How do you translate the winrate information into points? I am not sure there is a way to do it, since the winrate is about the confidence in the win/loss binary outcome, not about by how many points it would win or lose.

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Sorin - 361points.com

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 Post subject: Re: LeelaZero yose evaluation
Post #3 Posted: Sun May 20, 2018 11:23 am 
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KGS: Tryss
Usually you can't. But here everything is just yose.


If white play a), LZ think white will win with near certainty (<5% winrate)

If white play b), LZ think both players are nearly equals and basically a tossup.

The only difference between both options is something like 5 points :

Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$W White play a
$$ ---------------------------------------
$$ | . . . . . O X . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . X X X . X O . O X . . . . O . . |
$$ | . . X X O O X X O O X X . . . X O . . |
$$ | . X . O . . O O O , . . . X . X . O . |
$$ | . X O . . O . X X X . X . . . . X O . |
$$ | . . X O . . . . . . X O . X . . X O . |
$$ | X . X O . . . O . O O . O . . X O O . |
$$ | . X O . . . . . . . . . . O . X O O X |
$$ | O X O . . O . . . O . . . . . X O X . |
$$ | . O O X . X O O . , . . O O . X X . . |
$$ | . . . . . X X O . X . X X X . . . X . |
$$ | . . O O . . . X X . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . O X O . O X . . . . . . . . . . X . |
$$ | . O X X O . . . . . . . X X . X X O . |
$$ | . O X . . . . O . O . . . O . . O . O |
$$ | . 1 X 2 O O O X O , . X X . . O . O . |
$$ | 5 X O X X X X X X O . O O O . . . . . |
$$ | 3 X O 4 . . . . X O . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . 6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ---------------------------------------[/go]


Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$W White play b
$$ ---------------------------------------
$$ | . . . . . O X . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . X X X . X O . O X . . . . O . . |
$$ | . . X X O O X X O O X X . . . X O . . |
$$ | . X . O . . O O O , . . . X . X . O . |
$$ | . X O . . O . X X X . X . . . . X O . |
$$ | . . X O . . . . . . X O . X . . X O . |
$$ | X . X O . . . O . O O . O . . X O O . |
$$ | . X O . . . . . . . . . . O . X O O X |
$$ | O X O . . O . . . O . . . . . X O X . |
$$ | . O O X . X O O . , . . O O . X X . . |
$$ | . . . . . X X O . X . X X X . . . X . |
$$ | . . O O . . . X X . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . O X O . O X . . . . . . . . . . X . |
$$ | . O X X O . . . . . . . X X . X X O . |
$$ | M O X . . . . O . O . . . O . . O . O |
$$ | M 2 X 1 O O O X O , . X X . . O . O . |
$$ | . X O X X X X X X O . O O O . . . . . |
$$ | . X O . . . . . X O . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ---------------------------------------[/go]



If I'm unconditionnally losing, but with 5 more points we're even, that means that I'm 5 points behind. I repeat, this is pure yose, so the remaining plays are mostly independant and there is no strategic consideration.

After that, the winrate swing were huge by just playing suboptimal yose


This post by Tryss was liked by: sorin
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