I suspect that moving the probabilities discussion to another thread is a good idea, but since I am not an admin I cannot.

Pippen, you are simply incorrect in your assertions. By the fallacious arguments you are putting forward, it is evident that you do not understand statistics and probability. There are a number of real issues here, but I am going to focus on only two.

1. In terms of raw probabilities, you are absolutely wrong. A coin toss is a 50/50 proposition no matter how many consecutive heads have come up. Period. This is demonstrable, provable, and a simple consequence of the most fundamental laws of probability. A sequence going 100T, followed by H and then T is just as likely as 100T followed by T then H. Count tosses are completely independent events. One toss does not in any way whatsoever affect the next. It is physically impossible - perhaps you wish to advance some sort of paranormal connection? I doubt you would argue that.

As such, then, given the fact that the probability of 100T + 1H + 1T = that of 100T + 1T + 1H, the chances of H or at on the 101st throw is 50/50. By your arguments a string of 10H after 100T would be more probable than a mix of 5T and 5H.

2. go games aren't coin tosses. Even if Gu Li and Lee Sedol are evenly matched, there are psychological impacts of a long run of wins or losses - and therefore real chances of any one game is probably not 50% for either party.

_________________
Todd K. Pedlar
Associate Professor of Physics, Luther College
Decorah, IA