Well, on paper, both Japan and Korea still have a chance.

But... Murakawa has been slumping hard recently, with 11/32 (34%, src: goratings) in 2015 overall and 1-5 (17%) versus non-JP.

Such a shame Kono and Paku failed to make an impact. Gu Li is probably still laughing.

Who is Paku? Park Junghwan? If so, is that your nickname for him, or his?

Edit: This post was confused. As long as Gu beats Murakawa, then you probably end up with either Iyama or Lee facing the two remaining Chinese players.

Crap, I don't know how I thought the winner of the (probable) Iyama-Lee game would play Lian. Instead, the winner of the probable Lee-Lian game plays Iyama.

So the odds are actually pretty good that it's an Iyama/Lee final against Ke Jie (Lian has a 20-25% chance to sweep them, Gu has a slightly more than 10% chance to sweep). Then Lee/Iyama each have a better than 1/3 chance against Ke if we believe goratings.

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My predictions (without goratings) with a 3 point confidence scale:

Oh, I recently watched a YT-clip of one of Park's matches (with JP commentators) and they kept pronouncing his name "Paku". It sounds kind of endearing.

10th game;
Murakawa Daisuke defeated Gu Li by resign.

Remaining players;
Korea:Lee Sedol, Choi Cheolhan, Min Sangyeon, Baek Chanhee, Park Junghwan
China:Ke Jie, Lian Xiao, Wu Guangya, Fan Yunruo, Gu Li
Japan:Iyama Yuuta, Murakawa Daisuke,Ida Atzshi, Ichiriki Ryo, Kono Rin
bold - Remaining players.



3rd round: 3/1/2016~3/5/2016

I'll be first to comment.

Oh, now I've forgotten...

Oh, this shows my bad prediction capabilities.

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On Go proverbs:
"A fine Gotation is a diamond in the hand of a dan of wit and a pebble in the hand of a kyu" —Joseph Raux misquoted.

I really love the format of the Nongshim Cup, and this one has the possibility of producing some very exciting match ups. We might get both Iyama-Lee and Iyama-Ke in the same tournament! At the very least, Murakawa's win means every nation still has a fighting chance.

I was hoping, ahem, anticipating another Gu-Lee match up, but the next match I'm sure should be an important game for the Go world.

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On Go proverbs:
"A fine Gotation is a diamond in the hand of a dan of wit and a pebble in the hand of a kyu" —Joseph Raux misquoted.

It's funny: while Murakawa's win is exciting for him and for Japan, it barely helps Japan win the tournament. Unless he's on a surge and beats Lee, the situation is unchanged, and Iyama needs to win three straight to win for Japan.

To push it to the extreme, you could argue it helps Korea more than anyone, because we expect Lee to have a good edge against Murakawa. Not sure if it's really true that it helps Korea more than Japan, but it's within the realm of possibility.

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Oh, I thought that it clearly helps Korea more than Japan (by about half the worth of a Korean win against a Chinese player).

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On Go proverbs:
"A fine Gotation is a diamond in the hand of a dan of wit and a pebble in the hand of a kyu" —Joseph Raux misquoted.

It does help Japan a bit : Now, Lee will face Lian Xiao, and Iyama will only need two wins in a row instead of three.

I guess so; pound for pound, Japan is helped twice as much, but the relative chances of Korea winning v Japan means it actually helps Korea a lot more in terms of winning chances.

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On Go proverbs:
"A fine Gotation is a diamond in the hand of a dan of wit and a pebble in the hand of a kyu" —Joseph Raux misquoted.

Sure. Lee - Gu is 50/50 while Lee is likely to defeat Murakawa (well, I would have say the same about gu, so Murakawa might surprise us ^^). Korea is still in a tough position, but the odds are better now. For Japan it will depend on Iyama performance against top players. It will be really hard, but I wouldn't bury him too soon.

It's because of the hotel (see [1])!



"Gu has never won at this hotel. This is exactly the place where Gu Li lost to Won Seong-jin and Lee Sedol 9d at the Samsung Cup."

Said by some to be Gu Li's "Shanghai jinx" :-p

[1]http://cyberoro.com/news/news_view.oro?div_no=12&num=521349

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Clearly, Go Ratings must take the tournament location into account in calculating rankings.

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be immersed

So THAT's why Japan has been doing badly on the international scene for quite a few years...

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On Go proverbs:
"A fine Gotation is a diamond in the hand of a dan of wit and a pebble in the hand of a kyu" —Joseph Raux misquoted.

Ichiriki made the comment after winning three that he really wanted that fourth win. Winning three only evened up the field. Murakawa also helps make up for Kono and Ida going 0-2.

If Murakawa does win this one, it definitely leaves Japan in a better position.

Here is goratings prediction for each player left in the table:

Ke Jie beats Lee Sedol : 64.271 %
Ke Jie beats Lian Xiao : 70.098 %
Ke Jie beats Iyama Yuta : 61.314 %
Ke Jie beats Murakawa Daisuke : 92.115 %
Lee Sedol beats Lian Xiao : 56.582 %
Lee Sedol beats Iyama Yuta : 46.838 %
Lee Sedol beats Murakawa Daisuke : 86.656 %
Lian Xiao beats Iyama Yuta : 40.337 %
Lian Xiao beats Murakawa Daisuke : 83.286 %
Iyama Yuta beats Murakawa Daisuke : 88.053 %

Now some smart person tell me the odds for each team to win based on these...

There's something about this tournament that messes with my head--I keep making this kind of mistake.

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Occupy Babel!

Try cutting down on the ramen.

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be immersed