10/16 1st game: Ahn Kukhyun vs Toramaru Shibano
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| 20th Nongshim Cup http://www.lifein19x19.com/viewtopic.php?f=13&t=16027 |
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| Author: | trout [ Sun Sep 02, 2018 12:32 pm ] |
| Post subject: | 20th Nongshim Cup |
Players are set for 20th Nongshim Cup. Korea:Park Junghwan, Lee Sedol, Choi Cheolhan, Shin Minjoon, Ahn Kukhyun China:Ke Jie, Shi Yue, Gu Zhihao, Fan Tingyu, Dang Yifei Japan:Iyama Yuuta, Kyo Kagan, Ichiriki Ryo, Katsuya Motoki, Toramaru Shibano Schedule, !st round - 10/16, 17, 18, 19 2nd round - 11/18 3rd round - 2/19 |
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| Author: | trout [ Mon Oct 15, 2018 8:15 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 20th Nongshim Cup |
10/16 1st game: Ahn Kukhyun vs Toramaru Shibano
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| Author: | hyperpape [ Mon Oct 15, 2018 7:34 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 20th Nongshim Cup |
Two years ago, I wrote a program to calculate winning probabilities. I resurrected it this year: Since I don't know how the teams will order their players, I assume they put stronger players last, excepting Shibano, who has been announced as the first for Japan. Assuming my program works (verifying it's correct for large teams is a pain), the odds are: Japan wins: 6.8% Korea wins: 29.8% China wins: 63.4% Code: Shibano Toramaru: 3386 Motoki Katsuya: 3317 Kyo Kagen: 3373 Ichiriki Ryo: 3421 Iyama Yuta: 3504 Ahn Kukhyun: 3418 Choi Cheolhan: 3429 Lee Sedol: 3449 Shin Minjun: 3451 Park Juhnghwan: 3639 Dang Yifei: 3420 Shi Yue: 3540 Gu Zihao: 3561 Fan Tingyu: 3564 Ke Jie: 3612 China has a noticably stronger team, but also the advantage of starting last, which is big. Japan's team members are all among their best players, and it makes sense to give up a little bit to give younger players international competition. While China's team is not its absolute best, they have four top ten players. The Korean team differs a lot from the strongest team you could hand-pick, but it is fun to see Choi's name up there. |
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| Author: | Uberdude [ Tue Oct 16, 2018 2:10 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 20th Nongshim Cup |
Game 1 so far. Elf says Ahn (white) did well to move 50, getting up to 90% but the ko trade was great for black who was at 90% himself by move 80 and not much change to now. Let's see what happens to that big white dragon. |
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| Author: | trout [ Tue Oct 16, 2018 7:15 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 20th Nongshim Cup |
10/16 1st game: Toramaru Shibano defeated Ahn Kukhyun by resign. 10/17 2nd game: Toramaru Shibano vs Fan Tingyu Korea:Park Junghwan, Lee Sedol, Choi Cheolhan, Shin Minjoon, Ahn Kukhyun China:Ke Jie, Shi Yue, Gu Zhihao, Fan Tingyu, Dang Yifei Japan:Iyama Yuuta, Kyo Kagan, Ichiriki Ryo, Katsuya Motoki, Toramaru Shibano Bold case - remaining players |
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| Author: | oren [ Tue Oct 16, 2018 1:23 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 20th Nongshim Cup |
Hyperpape, you should rerun after each game. It would be interesting to see. |
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| Author: | macelee [ Tue Oct 16, 2018 1:57 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 20th Nongshim Cup |
What happens to those rates if one team put its strongest player first? |
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| Author: | hyperpape [ Tue Oct 16, 2018 2:33 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 20th Nongshim Cup |
oren: I'll try to do so. macelee: I'm not sure. I was thinking about that earlier today, and I'll try it out. |
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| Author: | hyperpape [ Tue Oct 16, 2018 6:26 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 20th Nongshim Cup |
Updated numbers. Note that the "previous" figures don't match my earlier post because I moved Fan Tingyu to first position. Japan: 9.5% (previously 6.6%) Korea: 24.8% (29.7) China: 65.6% (63.7) Rotating Ke Jie to be first gives: Japan 6.8% Korea: 30.2% China: 63.0% Rotating Park Junghwan to first gives: Japan 6.6% Korea: 26.4% China: 67% Rotating Iyama to first gives: Japan 6.3%, Korea: 28.8% China: 64.8% If Shibano had lost: Japan 4.3% China: 62.1% Korea: 33.7% |
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| Author: | ez4u [ Tue Oct 16, 2018 6:51 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 20th Nongshim Cup |
Note that moving the number 1 players to first gives them more chances to be 'randomly' knocked out by a weaker opponent. |
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| Author: | hyperpape [ Tue Oct 16, 2018 7:26 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 20th Nongshim Cup |
I think that's it, but I think it's only true if there's more than two teams. With two teams, it appears to me that you'll get the same results regardless. I started to write a long explanation of why this was intuitive, but halfway through I decided I didn't understand or believe it. My intuition for probability sucks. =\ |
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| Author: | Tryss [ Tue Oct 16, 2018 11:49 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 20th Nongshim Cup |
I think you get the same result only if the team are equals. See this simple exemple : Team AB against A'B' A win 55% of the time against A', and 65% against B' B win 40% of the time against A', and 50% against B' That means that A is the strongest player, followed by A', and B and B' are equals Case 1 : Suppose B' play first, then A' If A play first : A win both matchs : 0.65*0.55 = 35.75% A win first match, lose second against A', and B win the last game : 0.65*0.45*0.4 = 11.7% A lose first match, and B win both matches : 0.35*0.4*0.5 = 7% Team AB win against B'A' with probability 54.45% If B play first : B win both games : 0.5*0.4 = 20% B win first match, lose second, A win last : 0.5*0.6*0.55 = 16.5% B lose first, A win both : 0.5*0.65*0.55 = 17.875% Team BA win against B'A' with probability 54.375% Case 2 : if A' play first : If A play first : A win both matchs : 0.55*0.65 = 35.75% A win first match, lose second against B', and B win the last game : 0.55*0.35*0.5 = 9.625% A lose first match, and B win both matches : 0.45*0.4*0.5 = 9% Team AB win against A'B' with probability 54.375% If B play first : B win both games : 0.4*0.5 = 20% B win first match, lose second, A win last : 0.4*0.5*0.65 = 13% B lose first, A win both : 0.5*0.65*0.55 = 21.45% Team BA win against A'B' with probability 54.45% So, in this situation, the ' team wants to have A' in the same position as A, while the no' team want to have A in the same position as B' 
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| Author: | Uberdude [ Wed Oct 17, 2018 1:59 am ] | ||
| Post subject: | Re: 20th Nongshim Cup | ||
Shibano resigned in middlegame (153 not played), he played an unusual move (p2) in the lower right joseki which lead to him feeling the need to invade and extricate his group from the lower side; Elf preferred to just d7 turn and d3 in sente (they threaten to invade the lower side with attitude because you can counterattack white's lower left if white ignores) and give it to white. Elf wanted c8 and d9 because then when the game trade happens (Elf sometimes struggles to see white's f5 tesuji but recognises it as very good when played) black can e10 hane to grow the left white's taking white's liberties. Shibano was down to 5% when he started the centre fight at m7. I thought this was a particularly interesting shape lesson that both Elf and LZ agreed Shibano got wrong: when white haned at 1 black played the classic good shape net of 2. Instead he should have empty triangled. White 3 is sente now (just as it is with the good shape net, but that also gives white choice of n8 sente as Fan used well in the game), which we normally think of as painful in this shape but a lot of that's because usually the next push at a is also sente (it's not with the net, so net only gives them one forcing move) but here it's not sente yet (if white pushes black connects at b and is attacking the corner) so white has to capture and then black invades the lower side. During that fight it white pushes at a black can consider ignoring and allowing the painful hane because he can capture the 4 white stones in reply (and white's hane still has a cut, and white lost a little endgame in the corner). Also black could make the thick turn at a (a bit slack) and because 2 filled a white liberty moves like black c are more powerful in the future. Compare with the net if white takes the m7 sente (aji keshi, n8 might be better) and black plays a gote (less need for black to play a gote here as less reverse sente to it, white's push doesn't have the sente hane follow-up):
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| Author: | trout [ Wed Oct 17, 2018 4:50 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 20th Nongshim Cup |
10/17 2nd game: Fan Tingyu defeated Toramaru Shibano by resugb, 10/18 3rd game: Fan Tingyu vs Shin Minjoon Korea:Park Junghwan, Lee Sedol, Choi Cheolhan, Shin Minjoon, Ahn Kukhyun China:Ke Jie, Shi Yue, Gu Zhihao, Fan Tingyu, Dang Yifei Japan:Iyama Yuuta, Kyo Kagan, Ichiriki Ryo, Katsuya Motoki, Toramaru Shibano Bold case - remaining players |
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| Author: | hyperpape [ Wed Oct 17, 2018 9:56 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 20th Nongshim Cup |
I don't see how the tesuji at F5 works after Black plays atari on the outside, can anyone explain? |
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| Author: | explo [ Wed Oct 17, 2018 10:03 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 20th Nongshim Cup |
hyperpape wrote: I don't see how the tesuji at F5 works after Black plays atari on the outside, can anyone explain? If black plays atari from the outside, white can play atari at F7 and black can't connect, or white will squeeze and capture even more stones. |
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| Author: | hyperpape [ Wed Oct 17, 2018 7:26 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 20th Nongshim Cup |
Now Japan: 6.5% Korea: 23.1% China: 70.4% Previously Japan: 9.5% Korea: 25.0% China: 65.5% |
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| Author: | Uberdude [ Thu Oct 18, 2018 2:38 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 20th Nongshim Cup |
Shin ended up in a bad position and never recovered with what seemed like a not so hard direction of play problem. Here's the position, can you do better? Here's my commentary/analysis: What Shin played: Update: Shin indeed resigned in early endgame. |
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| Author: | clemi [ Thu Oct 18, 2018 3:20 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 20th Nongshim Cup |
FYI, according to sina.com, Fan Tingyu is just 3 victories away from top victory holder Xie He (15 in total) in Nongshim cup for China. |
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| Author: | Uberdude [ Thu Oct 18, 2018 3:28 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 20th Nongshim Cup |
Yes, this was some sweet revenge for Fan: 2 years ago he got 7 wins in a row (stopped by Park Junghwan), but then last year he lost the first round to Shin, who then went on to win 5 more (stopped by Dang Yifei who got 5 wins that year). I could see Fan getting several more this year: heavy favourite against the non-Iyama Japanese and >60% vs Iyama if he gets that far, and Lee Sedol is in poor form so favourite there, saving grace for Korea is Choi has a great 7-1 record against Fan (though last was 2015) so if he Choi can bring his top attacking game vs in-form Fan that's my prediction for where his run ends. |
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With this sequence Elf v1 said Shin went from 63% to 16%.