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 Post subject: Re: Following Nakamura Sumire
Post #441 Posted: Mon Apr 04, 2022 11:52 am 
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pajaro wrote:
According to the WHR description as used in goratings.org, all games played by all players are taken into account. So, if Rui Naiwei played and won a lot, and then nearly stopped playing, she doesn't get a lot of punishment. The usual is that an active player wins more games in its prime, then loses more often, and naturally, the number of loses taken into account increase compared to the wins. The paper explaining the algorithm doesn't say that old games are discarded. Actually, in KGS, if you stop playing, your ranking doesn't drop. It is the server that marks you as ?. Then, you are off the ratings. In goratings, I just checked, Cho Chikun has rating and games from 1971.

What you are saying is not the most accurate:
-Rui Naiwei didn't nearly stop playing. Infact she played 45 games in 2021. (Could be more. Goratings doesnt have all games). For comparison she has 9 games for 1999 (her peak year).
-Rui Naiwei's rating has gone down 183 points from its peak (which was in the end of 1999). Her global (all gender) ranking dropped from #21 --> #366.
-Her rating went down 32 points in 2021.

Image

Here is a summary of her games in 2021:
Code:
Result   Games   AvgOppRtn MinOppRtg MaxOppRtg
Loss     19      3133      2859      3324
Win      26      3007      2754      3246
Total    45      3060      2754      3324

Her rating at the end of the year 2021 was 3119. Is it inflated? Maybe a bit? Hard to say how much because she won a bit more than she lost. But at least it is not as dramatically wrong as you could imagine, is it?

Quote:
According to the WHR description as used in goratings.org, all games played by all players are taken into account.

This doesn't mean that all games are given an equal weight for all years. I mean, how else can you create a rating graph that reflects a player's strengh development in different years? Most likely games from 1990 have the biggest effect on the rating in 1990 and most likely they have a very small effect on the rating in 2020. And the other way around. Right?

Source for data: https://www.goratings.org/en/players/115.html

Edit. I re-read your post and realized that you probably used her as a hypothetical example. Sorry for misunderstanding. To find out how the rating system works in the scenario that you described, I tried to find a player who has nearly stopped playing and also became weaker, but couldn't find a good example. Do you have anyone in mind? :scratch:

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 Post subject: Re: Following Nakamura Sumire
Post #442 Posted: Mon Apr 04, 2022 4:49 pm 
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If there is an algorithm that actually tries to model what is happening with regards to »strength«, I think WHR is one that is by far closer than anything ELO-based.

However, I deeply suspect that there simply is not enough data (i. e. game results) by at least two orders of magnitude to make any such algorithm actually work to the displayed precision.

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 Post subject: Re: Following Nakamura Sumire
Post #443 Posted: Tue Apr 05, 2022 1:31 am 
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There are people here who seem to have a fascination with whether a player has gone up from 54th place to 51st in the ratings list. I suspect this is a tiny minority (maybe not of people here but of those in the wider world). There was a good example from that wider world yesterday. I am not a golf fan, but I read a piece about how excited golf fans are that Tiger Woods may play in the Augusta Masters. It made no bones about his slim chances of winning, but said the news had given golf a great fillip. In the course of the article, the world's current No. 1 was mentioned. That made no impression on me whatsoever, and I now can't remember his name at all or anything else about him. But I do know Tiger won lots of majors.

In similar vein we could have the fan test, of a different kind, in go. If you were offered a free fan signed by Iyama Yuta, holder of seven major titles and dominant force n Japanese go for over a decade or another by Pyeon Sang-il, who is far above him in the ratings list, which fan would you choose? I, and I believe the vast majority who have no desire to demonstrate sheer perversity, would choose Iyama. Hiw many go players have even heard of Pyeon?

Similarly, I would choose Sumire over Rui, even though Rui's calligraphy is much, much, much better.

Ratings fans talk about strength. They just mean a changeable number. It is safer to talk about significance. It is certainly more attuned to the wider public. Years ago, in Japan everyone except babies in cots, knew the name of shogi champion Oyama Meijin even if they didn't know how a knight moves in shogi. They didn't even known his given name - he was just Oyama Meijin. A bit later everyone knew the Honinbo, even if they didn't know he was actually called Takagawa, because he won it 9 years on the trot. Then everyone knew the full name of Sakata. He won so many different titles they didn't tag a title onto his name. He got his full name. Except he dodn't. Most people, reading it only in the newspapers, though he was (initially, at least) Sakata Hideo, a commoner reading for Eio.

None of this vast public knew, or cared, what rating numbers were attached to their names. It was their general significance that mattered.

Now that ratings proliferate, it's hard to escape them, but still there are various ways of looking at them. My feeling, bolstered by what I see in the chess world, is that what matters most, to most people, is the peak rating. For some, but only within the chess world itself, there are landmarks such as a 2800-player (but even that jus means an "elite player."

My question earlier, about whole-history ratings, is whether that way of looking at ratings obscures the significance of players (forget daily strength). It seems to me, prima facie, that it brings in troughs as well as peaks, and so flattens out a player's profile. Very wrongly, I feel. If you look at Yi Ch'ang-ho that way, he "only" won over 140 titles, including many world titles, and once had an annual score well over 80%. Greatest player ever? Where is he in the ratings list now? His form has been abysmal in recent years, and ratings lists "accurately" reflect that, but what if we measure his "significance" instead.

A quite different way of looking at ratings, and more "honest" n the baseball sense, is to say they measure "current strength". I don't know if they do, hence my earlier question. But, again at a prima facie level, I suspect current can be distorted by having too much weight put on historical results (e.g. Rui Naiwei, but even also Yi Ch'ang-ho for that matter).

I'm no statistician, but I do recall Disraeli's aphorism: there are lies, damned lies, and statistics. And in go, I tend to think there are lies, damned lies and rating lists.

The very title of this thread, and its length, points to the truth that many of us are interested in a mere 2-dan, Nakamura Sumire. Where is the thread on Pyeon Sang-il, NINE dan? Or even, Sin Chin-seo or Ke Jie, when we do have a thread on SEVEN CROWNS Iyama Yuta.

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 Post subject: Re: Following Nakamura Sumire
Post #444 Posted: Tue Apr 05, 2022 1:53 am 
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> How many go players have even heard of Pyeon?

Few people have heard of Pyeon Sang-il. Quite a lot know Byun Sangil.

Seven of Byun's games have been reviewed on Youtube (see https://senseis.xmp.net/?ProGameReviewsOnYoutube). That's vs thirteen of Iyama's and three of Sumire's. (Of course, the list is not complete.)

I agree with the point you're making, but Byun is not popularly obscure.

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 Post subject: Re: Following Nakamura Sumire
Post #445 Posted: Tue Apr 05, 2022 5:25 am 
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John Fairbairn wrote:
My question earlier, about whole-history ratings, is whether that way of looking at ratings obscures the significance of players (forget daily strength). It seems to me, prima facie, that it brings in troughs as well as peaks, and so flattens out a player's profile. Very wrongly, I feel. If you look at Yi Ch'ang-ho that way, he "only" won over 140 titles, including many world titles, and once had an annual score well over 80%. Greatest player ever? Where is he in the ratings list now? His form has been abysmal in recent years, and ratings lists "accurately" reflect that, but what if we measure his "significance" instead.

A quite different way of looking at ratings, and more "honest" n the baseball sense, is to say they measure "current strength". I don't know if they do, hence my earlier question. But, again at a prima facie level, I suspect current can be distorted by having too much weight put on historical results (e.g. Rui Naiwei, but even also Yi Ch'ang-ho for that matter).
I think you have slightly misunderstood the WHR. It doesnt sum up the whole history into just one number. Not at all! It shows the history as history. Ie. it doesn’t just show the “current strength” but the strength at any single date in their whole career.

Take a look at these:
https://www.goratings.org/en/history/
https://www.goratings.org/en/ladies/
Lee Changho 16 years as #1.
Rui Naiwei 26 years as #1.

Can you see that the significance of their career there? Both of these are produced by the WHR. Their past accomplishments are not lost. They are there in WHR.

John Fairbairn wrote:
But, again at a prima facie level, I suspect current can be distorted by having too much weight put on historical results (e.g. Rui Naiwei, but even also Yi Ch'ang-ho for that matter).
Do you have any evidence to support your claim? All the data from goratings seems to point to the opposite direction, ie that WHR doesn't seem to put too much weight on historical results when it calculates the current strength.

You can find a summary of Rui Naiwei's games in 2021 in my earlier post above. Is her current rating really that much off?

Here is a summary of Lee Changho in 2021:
Code:
Result   Games     AvgOppRtn MinOppRtg MaxOppRtg
Loss     24        3426      3701      3201
Win      20        3263      3536      3032
Total    44        3352      3701      3032

His rating at the end of the year was 3334. Is it accurate? Well, I cannot say it is completely accurate, but at least it doesnt seem to be very significantly off. At least not very badly distorted by historical games, is it?

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 Post subject: Re: Following Nakamura Sumire
Post #446 Posted: Tue Apr 05, 2022 6:11 am 
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Quote:
I think you have slightly misunderstood the WHR.


I freely admit I may have probably massively understood WHR, but I also start from the premise that I don't like obsession with numbers. And I note with approval that the pro go world takes relatively little interest in ratings, especially in Japan.

I can see for myself that the likes of Yi Ch'ang-ho, Rui Naiwei, Cho Chikun are not achieving what they used to achieve, so to say to me that their current ranking is not much different from an older ranking goes in one ear and straight out the other. It has no meaning for me. I like to admire people for what they achieved and like to remember them as they were at their peak, not as Darby & Joans. The company of D & Js can be wonderful, but in a quite different way.

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 Post subject: Re: Following Nakamura Sumire
Post #447 Posted: Tue Apr 05, 2022 9:34 am 
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My intuition about WHR is the following:

Take a big physical table (you know, the wooden kind). Mark the years in one direction and »strength« in another (no need to put any numbers here, you can regard this as unitless).

Then for each player, take a somewhat flexible, springy rod. These tend to be straight, but you can bend them with force (and they will straighten when the force goes away). They are as long as each player's career. Put them on the table, roughly in the time direction.

Then for each game, take a slider: two rails (loser and winner) gliding against each other, but with a spring inside that applies a force when the loser rail is higher than the winner rail. Fix these to the rods at the time of the game, winner to winner rail, loser to loser rail.

When all these forces are balanced out, you get strength graphs for the players.

Of course, how it looks exactly depends on e. g. the springiness and the stiffness of the rods, and the force of the connector springs.

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 Post subject: Re: Following Nakamura Sumire
Post #448 Posted: Tue Apr 05, 2022 10:12 am 
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I do appreciate this attempt to get rid of numbers, but as far as I can visualise this contraption, the numbers still seem be lurking there - in their dozens, allegedly just like the lurkers on SL. So, in the end, it's mutton dressed as lamb. 'A' for effort and bonus points for creativity, nevertheless!

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Post #449 Posted: Tue Apr 05, 2022 12:04 pm 
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I prefer to rank players like one of those problems from grade school.
  • Fan Tingyu played black and lost to Iyama Yuta.
  • Shin Jinseo has black hair, wears black glasses, and beat Park Junghwan.
  • Ke Jie has black hair, black glasses, played black, and beat Fan Tingyu with black hair and wearing black glasses.
What colors are Mi Yuting's hair and glasses?


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 Post subject: Re: Following Nakamura Sumire
Post #450 Posted: Wed Apr 06, 2022 1:18 am 
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Toukopouko wrote:
Edit. I re-read your post and realized that you probably used her as a hypothetical example. Sorry for misunderstanding. To find out how the rating system works in the scenario that you described, I tried to find a player who has nearly stopped playing and also became weaker, but couldn't find a good example. Do you have anyone in mind? :scratch:


I used Rui Naiwei as an example, because previously John had used her too. I don't follow her, and I just took a peek in her data to write the post.

About the use of old and new games in the algorithm, I'd like to explain something better:
from what I read in the paper, all games taken into account have the same weight in the result of the algorithm. goratings.org is based on that paper. But maybe the implementation is a bit different. I don't know this. I might even be wrong about what I understood in the paper. I used KGS to explain that they used the same algorithm, but also a way to remove games. In KGS, an inactive player is marked as ? after some time, and that player's games are out of the algorithm. This affects the result of the algorithm in other players (not only direct opponents). Maybe goratings.org keeps all games of every player (you can see it, I used Cho Chikun as an example of a long history), but perhaps only games newer than some time are taken into account when running the algorithm. Again, I don't know this kind of details, and again, sorry for any mistake in my English.

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 Post subject: Re: Following Nakamura Sumire
Post #451 Posted: Wed Apr 06, 2022 1:25 am 
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I found this article in twitter:

https://www.nihonkiin.or.jp/etc/writer/column20220405.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Google translator gives a decent translation, and I more or less understood it.

It has been discussed recently what makes a top player a champion or a forever candidate. Cho U comments about Sumire's win against Zhou Hongyu 6-dan in a recent international game. According to Cho, Sumire was in a desperate position, but she keep fighting and won the game. Yes, Zhou made a mistake, but you have to be there to take advantage of it.


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Post #452 Posted: Wed Apr 06, 2022 3:02 am 
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pajaro wrote:
About the use of old and new games in the algorithm, I'd like to explain something better:
from what I read in the paper, all games taken into account have the same weight in the result of the algorithm. goratings.org is based on that paper.
pajaro wrote:
but perhaps only games newer than some time are taken into account when running the algorithm. Again, I don't know this kind of details, and again, sorry for any mistake in my English.

Ok. I think what may help you understand it: Goratings (or WHR) is not only about calculating the current rating. It is about calculating a rating for every single day of a player's career. If you navigate to a player's profile (eg. Cho Chikun's), you can see a graph on top of the page. That's all derived by WHR.

To produce that, it of course needs to take into account both older and newer games. They are given equal weight (ie no game is negletted or treated less important). However of course when you calculate a rating for 1975-01-01, the games that took place at around that date have more importance to the rating at that day (compared to games that happened in 2020's). And If you calculate a rating for 2022-01-01, then recent games have more importance than games that happened 30 years ago. Isn't it just logical?

To sum it up: when they say that "all games taken into account have the same weight in the result of the algorithm", the result they are referring to isn't just the current ratings. It is all ratings at all days of the player's career. Because that's the actual result of the algorithm. Even if we just mainly follow the current day's ratings.


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 Post subject: Re: Following Nakamura Sumire
Post #453 Posted: Sat Apr 09, 2022 4:34 am 
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I know she lost against Fujisawa Rina in the international but I still think she can win the Meijin, although I think it's only about 10% chance Sumire wins. Fortunately for Fujisawa I'm not sure how she'll handle her first title match, but I must revise my statement. Nakamura is already as strong as Fujisawa was in 2014. If this was 2010 or 2014 or 2018 she'd have been the second strongest female pro in Japan, about Choi Jung's level at the same age, and Choi Jung is obviously a Japanese Honinbo League, Japanese Meijin League, and Japanese Kisei S-League player, capable of winning any of the titles, today, about as strong as Shibano Toramanu, today, so it's officially not cringey to make predictions anymore. Given that in seven years perhaps only Ichiriki and Shibano will be stronger than her at that time, we may speculate whether we'll see another teenage Meijin in 2029! Or maybe the first teenage Honinbo?

Fujisawa Female Meijin 2-0 56%, 72.25%
Fujisawa Female Meijin 2-1 28%, 21.75%
goratings, mamumamu
Nakamura 2 dan 2-1 9%, 4.25%
Nakamura 2 dan 2-0 6%, 2.25%

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 Post subject: Re: Following Nakamura Sumire
Post #454 Posted: Sat Apr 09, 2022 5:30 am 
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I'd like you to be right. Sumire put up a good fight against Rina, but I still think that Rina will win 2-0. Experience is important, and in this case it might be the main deciding factor. The gap in strength exists, but is not very wide. Rina, btw, lost to Ueno Asami. What must be inside her head?

About your predictions for the future and her strength today: to begin with, at 10 years old, she was stronger than all those players you mentioned. This is obvious. I am not saying that this means that in 7 years she will also be stronger than Shibano at 17, and a possible Meijin. I think that she has a bright future (again, obvious), but she has to work hard to make it happen. But she has also shown that she has the right qualities.


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Post #455 Posted: Sat Apr 09, 2022 5:29 pm 
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Surely experience helps, but the women's match seems more ordinary day to day than the Dog & Pony show that Iyama hosts across the country every few months.

I think Iyama has a bigger step up against his challenger than Fujisawa does against hers. If you read the news articles there's all sorts of picture taking and hand shaking they do. Meanwhile, the women's challenger is taking the same commute to the Kiin. Probably eating the same lunch too.

Anyway, seems like a women's challenger has less opportunity to be psyched out.

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 Post subject: Re: Following Nakamura Sumire
Post #456 Posted: Sun Apr 10, 2022 1:19 am 
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Dog & Pony show... that's a good way to put it. Indeed, Iyama is comfortable with 2-day matches and all the paraphernalia that comes with it. The challenger has to learn how to deal with it. I don't think they have lunch together, but I saw how everybody (players, commentators, time keepers...) took the same train to go back to Tokyo. It's a small world after all.

Even if the Meijin games look like regular games, they aren't. Maybe Rina can focus on the game easily, but this is a new situation for Sumire. She has shown that she can be focused too, but let's see what happens. I'd love to be proven wrong and see the match go to the 3rd game.

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Post #457 Posted: Sun Apr 10, 2022 3:03 am 
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There seems no obvious way to devise a scale to compare the rigours of one title match over another. Apart from the format of each event being different, each event is affected by the people in it. We can easily imagine, for example, more fuss being made over Sumire then even Iyama. Or Tiger Woods over whoever the world No. 1 golfer now is.

But we can draw a broad distinction between two groups of event which are so different that it becomes really a case of apples and pears.

Traditional prestige events like the Kisei are sponsored by newspapers. They do it to get full rights to the matches. That means, unless they deign to allow rival journalists in (which they often don't), reporting remains largely in-house. there is relatively little in the way of a media scrum.

In more modern times, non-media companies have entered the scene. They want publicity. They DEMAND a media scrum. This is the case with the Women's Meijin, where the giant Kamachi group wants a constant media presence for its hospitals, care homes and educational facilities. They like this nationwide, but it also goes down well in Hakata (Fukuoka), an area which is growing in self-esteem lately, even switching to use the local dialect on tv.

Are media scrums stressful. I've been in hundreds, so I'd say yes, though for go players not very much. As a go player, you are not often likely to run the risk of saying the wrong thing (or the right thing and having distorted by a sensationalist reporter), nor will photographers try to position you in compromising pictures. Nevertheless, there are strains. The notoriously misquoted "I don't like go" of Cho Chikun referred (as he himself explained) not to the game of go, but to the media circus, and in particular the need to kowtow and grovel to sponsors or local mayors and the like.

Having to struggle to sleep overnight in a two-day battle is a well attested major pressure, of course, and the lack of sleep is not limited to the night in the middle of the match. The night before is a problem, too. Typically, on the eve of the match, there will be a huge party hosted by the local dignitaries and the players will be expected to give speeches. There may also be autograph and fan-writing sessions.

Travelling to venues is not usually a problem for the players, but can be a headache for the organisers, such as when Takemiya and Kobayashi had to be sat far apart in the same bullet train. Or when a players says he will make his own way to the venue, and is delayed. Or (in the case of a famous shogi incident), a player doesn't like the board being used and so another one has to be sent on the overnight train from Tokyo to Hiroshima. It is tempting to infer, from such cases, that some players wage psychological warfare at these times. What if (heaven forfend) one lady were to say crushingly to her opponent: I like your dress - I had one like that last year. :)

After all, what it boils down to can be summed up in the words of (I think) chess-master Tarrasch: It's not enough to be a good player. You also have to play well.


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Post #458 Posted: Sun Apr 10, 2022 4:07 am 
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John Fairbairn wrote:
After all, what it boils down to can be summed up in the words of (I think) chess-master Tarrasch: It's not enough to be a good player. You also have to play well.


I agree with this. There are people who can play well, and people who can compete well. Those people aren't always the same.

I'd like to add something.

If you ask players who are NOT playing, what event do you find more stressful, the Kisei or the female Meijin, there may be different answers.
If you ask players who are playing (any game, any event), what do you find more stressful, the Kisei, the female Meijin or your own game, there is only one answer.

In the end, Fujisawa vs. Nakamura will be apples or oranges or whatever, but that's what it is. We can compare, or chat, or wait for the blood. But for the players, whatever happens in other cases is not important.


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Post #459 Posted: Sun Apr 10, 2022 8:10 pm 
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pajaro wrote:
I'd like you to be right. Sumire put up a good fight against Rina, but I still think that Rina will win 2-0. Experience is important, and in this case it might be the main deciding factor. The gap in strength exists, but is not very wide. Rina, btw, lost to Ueno Asami. What must be inside her head?


Well, in Japanese Female tournaments Fujisawa Rina has been clearly beyond Ueno Asami, but outside of Japanese Female tournaments Ueno being stronger has been the norm recently, so I don't think it would affect Fujisawa so much . . .

pajaro wrote:
. . . About your predictions for the future and her strength today: to begin with, at 10 years old, she was stronger than all those players you mentioned. This is obvious . . .


Are you sure? I guess I must be very bad at this sort of thing since I've seen no evidence whatsoever that she's stronger than any of the players. The only counterpoint to that might be the statement from the head of her Korean dojang but unless he actually taught Choi Jung, I don't think that statement should be taken at face value. Every teacher would think their student is more impressive than another one at the same age that they never properly knew at the time. Okay, well there's another counterpoint, Iyama Yuuta's statement. But he didn't imply that she was that much stronger than him at the same age, and his statement could also be interpreted as meaning he's confident she wasn't weaker than him since it wouldn't be surprising for him to make a humble statement while being polite to the young genius. This is the person who told Umezawa (at the time) Yukari that if he's lucky he hopes might win a title or maybe two and look what happened.

So yes she's a genius but is not even in the same universe as Shin Jinseo or Kie Jie, at least in my perception, or comparable at all to Shin Minjoon or Byung Sangil, as you seem to imply. Ichiriki seems a bit above her in potential; she seems to be at exactly the same level of ability as Iyama and Shibano, which is enough to challenge for an international title in your late twenties to early thirties, or something like that, probably if she keeps working as hard as she has been before. Although now I'm worried that my impression all this time has been wrong and that I've been underestimating her a little and now you've exposed my ignorance, :oops:! I'll concede Choi Jung seems moreso comparable in ability to Yu Zhengqi and Cho U (the international competition in his day wasn't what it is now, mainly thanks to the emergence of strong pros from the Beijing-controlled part of China) than Iyama and Shibano so I guess the head of the Korean dojang was right. Although by the time she's at her peak there's no reason to think that the competition wil still increase so it will be way more difficult to win an international title than when Iyama Yuta made the LG finals. Considering she'd probably be one of only 4 or so Japanese pros playing at an international level it looks bleak for Japan, although Korea won't be doing much better)

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 Post subject: Re: Following Nakamura Sumire
Post #460 Posted: Mon Apr 11, 2022 12:33 am 
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Elom0 wrote:

pajaro wrote:
. . . About your predictions for the future and her strength today: to begin with, at 10 years old, she was stronger than all those players you mentioned. This is obvious . . .


Are you sure? I guess I must be very bad at this sort of thing since I've seen no evidence whatsoever that she's stronger than any of the players.


At 10, she was pro. The other players weren't. That's all. My analysis wasn't deeper than that.

I can't judge anyone's strength based on games I watch. I am not strong enough. I just see results, evolution... things like that.

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