How is your positional judgement?

Bill Spight · **#61**

Hmmmm. No discussion. Is this one too easy?

Bill Spight · **#62**

My discussionn of Game 8.

Sakata Elo, 9 dan (White) vs. Iwamote Kaoru, 8 dan, 1956.
GoGoD 1956-00-00c.sgf. Komi = 4½ pts.

After :w30:

White has a winrate estimate of 93½% (17.9k playouts). However, Black, Iwamoto, won by resignation.

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$Wc White is ahead. $$ --------------------------------------- $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . X . O . . . . . O . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . , . . O . . , . . . . X , X . . | $$ | . . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . X . . . . . . . . . . X . X . . | $$ | . . X , O . . . . , . . . . . X O . . | $$ | . . . X O . . . O . . . . . X O O O . | $$ | . . . X . . . . . . . . . . . X O . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$Bcm31 Elf's main continuation (43.9k playouts) $$ --------------------------------------- $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . X . O . . . . . O . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . , . . O . . , . . . . X , X . . | $$ | . . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . 3 . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O . O 4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . X . . . . . . . . . . X . X . . | $$ | . . X , O . . . . , 2 . . . . X O . . | $$ | . . . X O . . . O . . . . . X O O O . | $$ | . . . X . . . . . . . . . . . X O . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

cuts two White groups apart. Then White has many options. :w32:

is Elf's top choice, but it has only 8.3k playouts. After :w34:

I guess the number of playouts dropped below 1.5k, which is why Elf stops there.

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$Bcm9 Jump to the 3-3 loses 14% $$ --------------------------------------- $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . X , X . . | $$ | . . a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . | $$ | . . X , . . . . . , . . . . . 3 . . . | $$ | . . . . O . . . . . . . . . . O 1 4 . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

Elf reckons that :b9:

loses 14% by comparison with the approach to the top left corner at a.

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$Bcm13 Joseki play loses 19½% $$ --------------------------------------- $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . X , X . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 . X . . | $$ | . . X , . . . . . , . . . . . X 2 . . | $$ | . . . . O . . . . . . . . . 1 O B O . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 O . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

@

According to Elf :b13:

loses 19½% by comparison with connecting at 14. At the time :b13:

was considered to be joseki, the connection was not.

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$Bcm13 Elf's mainline variation for $$ --------------------------------------- $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . X , X . . | $$ | . . 7 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . | $$ | . . X , . . . . . , . . . . . X 1 . . | $$ | . . . . O . . . . . . . . . 2 O X O . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 3 O 5 . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 . 8 . | $$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

is an interesting sacrifice. After :w18:

approaches the top left corner. Then :w20:

captures

.

makes a base with sente. OC, Elf does not consider this result as good as approaching the top left corner with :b9:

.

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$Bcm29 Sagari loses 13½% $$ --------------------------------------- $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . X . W . . . . a 2 . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . , . . W . . , . . . . X , X . . | $$ | . . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . X . . . . . . . . . . X . X . . | $$ | . . X , O . . . . , . . . . . X O . . | $$ | . . . X O . . . O . . . . . X O O O . | $$ | . . . 1 . . . . . . . . . . . X O . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

secures the corner, but Elf thinks it loses 13½% by comparison with the attack at a on the :wc:

stones.

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$Bcm29 Elf's mainline variation for $$ --------------------------------------- $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . X . O . . . . 1 . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . , . . O . . , . . . . X , X . . | $$ | . . X . 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . X 3 4 6 . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . 5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . X . . . . . . . . . . X . X . . | $$ | . . X , O . . . . , . . . . . X O . . | $$ | . . . X O . . . O . . . . . X O O O . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X O . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

After

White makes eye shape.

Knotwilg · **#63**

A short discussion:

Joaz Banbeck · **#64**

Knotwilg wrote:

...

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$B $$ --------------------------------------- $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . O . . X . . X . . . . . . X . . | $$ | . . . O X . . . . , . . X . . , . . . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . . . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . X . O . O X . . . | $$ | . . O X . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O O X . . . . . . 3 . . . . X O . | $$ | . . O X . . . . . . . . . . . . X O . | $$ | . . O , . . . . . , . . . . . 1 O . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O . . | $$ | . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . X O O . . . . . O . . . . . , X . . | $$ | . X X X O O O . . . . . . . X . . . . | $$ | . . . . X X . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

...

I tend to agree with Knotwilg that black is the obvious winner, although I would do more to impede white's possible growth in the lower left.

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$B $$ --------------------------------------- $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . O . . X . . X . . . . . . X . . | $$ | . . . O X . . . . , . . X . . , . . . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . . . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . X . O . O X . . . | $$ | . . O X . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O O X . . . . . . . . . . . X O . | $$ | . . O X . . . . . . . . . . . . X O . | $$ | . . O , . . . . . , . . . . . 1 O . . | $$ | . . . . 3 . . . . . . . . . . . 2 . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O . . | $$ | . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . X O O . . . . . O . . . . . , X . . | $$ | . X X X O O O . . . . . . . X . . . . | $$ | . . . . X X . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

If I did think that killing the two loose white stones was more important, I would not force him to fight near my weak stones:

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$B $$ --------------------------------------- $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . O . . X . . X . . . . . . X . . | $$ | . . . O X . . . . , . . X . . , . . . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . . . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . X . O . O X . . . | $$ | . . O X . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O O X . . . . . . 3 . . . . B O . | $$ | . . O X . . . . . . . . . 4 . . B O . | $$ | . . O , . . . . . , . . . . . 1 O . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O . . | $$ | . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . X O O . . . . . O . . . . . , X . . | $$ | . X X X O O O . . . . . . . X . . . . | $$ | . . . . X X . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

instead, I would kill while strengthening those stones

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$B $$ --------------------------------------- $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . O . . X . . X . . . . . . X . . | $$ | . . . O X . . . . , . . X . . , . . . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . . . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . X . O . O X . . . | $$ | . . O X . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O O X . . . . . . . 4 . . . X O . | $$ | . . O X . . . . . . . . . 3 . . X O . | $$ | . . O , . 6 . . . , . 5 . . . 1 O . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O . . | $$ | . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . X O O . . . . . O . . . . . , X . . | $$ | . X X X O O O . . . . . . . X . . . . | $$ | . . . . X X . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

Bill Spight · **#65**

Knotwilg wrote:

A short discussion:

I disagree that bots prefer territory, but that discussion would take us too far afield, and is too abstract for my liking right now. We can just ask the bots in any particular position what they like.

Bill Spight · **#66**

Game 10.

With the usual assumptions, after :w38:

Elf estimates a winrate of 91% (119.7k playouts) for one player. Which one is it?

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$Wcm38 Black to play $$ --------------------------------------- $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O . O . . . . . . . . O . . . . . | $$ | . . X O . . . . . . . X . O . O O . . | $$ | . . X , O . . X . , . . . X X X X . . | $$ | . . . X O O . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . X O X X . . . . . . . . O . . | $$ | . . . X . X O . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X . . X O . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . X O O . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O , X . . . . , . . . . . , . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

Enjoy.

Kirby · **#67**

Knotwilg · **#68**

Joaz Banbeck · **#69**

I agree with Knotwilg that black is better, and I like :b1:

and

as they make territory and eye space while attacking.
But :b5:

, while very shapely, seems the wrong direction.

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$B $$ --------------------------------------- $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . 4 O . O . . . . . . . . O . . . . . | $$ | . 2 X O . 1 . . . . . X . O . O O . . | $$ | . 3 X , O . . X . , . . . X X X X . . | $$ | . . . X O O . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . X O X X . . . . . . . . O . . | $$ | . . . X . X O . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X . . X O . 5 . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . X O O . . . . . . . . . 7 . . | $$ | . . O , X . . 6 . , . . . . . , . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

If white wants to run, black actually prefers that he run eastward, for then a move like :b7:

below is a double attack.

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$B $$ --------------------------------------- $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . 4 O . O . . . . . . . . O . . . . . | $$ | . 2 X O . 1 . . . . . X . O . O O . . | $$ | . 3 X , O . . X . , . . . X X X X . . | $$ | . . . X O O . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . X O X X . . . . . . . . O . . | $$ | . . . X . X O . . . . 7 . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X . . X O . . 6 . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . X O O . . . . . . . . . 5 . . | $$ | . . O , X . . . . , . . . . . , . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

Bill Spight · **#70**

Game 9, discussion of Elf commentary

Takagawa (W) - Rin Kaiho, Meijin Final, Game 3, 1969-09-09a. Komi = 5+ pts. (I.e., 5 pts. with White winning jigo.)

After :w44:

Elf gives Black an estimated winrate of 90½% with 33.8k playouts. However, White, Takagawa, won by 8 pts.

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$Wcm44 Black is ahead. $$ --------------------------------------- $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . O . . X . . X . . . . . . X . . | $$ | . . . O X . . . . , . . X . . , . . . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . . . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . X . O . O X . . . | $$ | . . O X . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O O X . . . . . . . . . . . X O . | $$ | . . O X . . . . . . . . . . . . X O . | $$ | . . O , . . . . . , . . . . . , O . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O . . | $$ | . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . X O O . . . . . O . . . . . , X . . | $$ | . X X X O O O . . . . . . . X . . . . | $$ | . . . . X X . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

Elf's recommended continuation of the game.

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$Bcm45 Elf's mainline continuation $$ --------------------------------------- $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . O . . X . . X . . . . . . X . . | $$ | . . . O X . . . . , . . X . . , . . . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . . . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . X . O . O X . . . | $$ | . . O X . X . . . . . 6 . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O O X . . . . . . 4 5 . . . X O . | $$ | . . O X . . . . 0 8 . . 3 . . . X O . | $$ | . . O , . . . . . 9 7 . . . . 1 O . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O . . | $$ | . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . X O O . . . . . O . . . . . , X . . | $$ | . X X X O O O . . . . . . . X . . . . | $$ | . . . . X X . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

leans on the White group on the right side; then :b47:

tops the tree, capping the White center stones. As White runs out, Black's attack promises to erase White's potential in the left center.

Earlier in the game:

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$Wcm16 "Obvious" block loses 10%, says Elf $$ --------------------------------------- $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . O . . X . . X . . . . . . X . . | $$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . . . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O , . . . . . , . . . . . , O . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . 1 O . . . . . O . . . . . , X . . | $$ | . . X . . . . . . . . . . . X . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

Which side to block the 3-3 invasion from is a question I cannot always answer. Usually the difference is small, but in this case it is 10%, and Elf recommends the opposite alternative to the one that appears to be the correct direction of play. (Takagawa would know.

) How come?

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$Wcm16 Elf's variation for $$ --------------------------------------- $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . O . . X . . X . . . . . . X . . | $$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . . . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O , . . . . . , . . . . . , O . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . 8 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O . . | $$ | 0 5 6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . 4 3 7 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . 9 2 O . . . . . O . . . . . , X . . | $$ | . . X 1 . . . . . . . . . . X . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

Here is a clue. Instead of the traditional joseki (now obsolete) taking outside strength, White plays the two step hane and takes the corner.

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$Wcm26 Elf's variation for continued $$ --------------------------------------- $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . O . . X . . X . . . . . . X . . | $$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . . 8 . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . W , . . . . . , . . . . . , O . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O . . | $$ | X . X 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . X O O 4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . O X O . 5 . . . W . . . . . , X . . | $$ | . 1 X O . . . . . . . . . . X . . . . | $$ | . 7 6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

White does not make outside strength to work with the :wc:

stones. Instead, Black has a weakish group in hostile territory. :w28:

secures territory while attacking the Black group. Black makes elbow room with sente and then turn to his territorial framework in the top right quadrant.

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$Wcm16 Elf recommended line after $$ --------------------------------------- $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . O . . X . . X . . . . . . X . . | $$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . . . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O , . . . . . , . . . . . , O . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . 1 O 7 . . . . W . . . . . , X . . | $$ | . . X 2 3 6 . . . . . . . . X . . . . | $$ | . . . 9 4 5 8 . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . 0 . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

Takagawa played :w20:

at 21, but Elf says to play the two step hane here, as well. (The difference only comes to 1%, however.)

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$Wcm26 Elf recommended line after continued $$ --------------------------------------- $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . O . . X . . X 6 9 . . . . X . . | $$ | . . . , . . . . . , 5 7 . . . , . . . | $$ | . . . O . . . . 8 . . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O , . . . . . , . . . . . , O . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O O O 4 . . . W . 0 . . . , X . . | $$ | . 2 X X O X . . . . . . . . X . . . . | $$ | . 3 1 O X . X . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

In this variation the :wc:

stone is weak. :w30:

reduces the Black framework in the top right, while Black attacks the :wc:

stone. On balance, this is better for Black than when he makes a weak group on the left side.

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$Bcm27 White loses more ground $$ --------------------------------------- $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . O . . X . . X . . . . . . X . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . . . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . 8 3 . 7 . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . 6 4 5 . . . . . . . . . . . X . . | $$ | . . 2 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . W , . . . . . , . . . . . , O . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O . . | $$ | . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . X O O . . . . . W . . . . . , X . . | $$ | . X X X O O O . . . . . . . X . . . . | $$ | . . . . X X . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

In the actual game Black played the hane-and-connect in the bottom left corner, which was joseki before the AI era. In this case that is Elf's choice, too, probably because White ends up overconcentrated, given the :wc:

stones.

reduces the left side. But :w30:

loses 16½% and then :w34:

loses 11%. Each side made smaller errors, but White made three significant mistakes that gave Black a commanding lead.

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$Wcm30 Elf mainline for $$ --------------------------------------- $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . O . . X . . X 6 . . . . . X . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . , 5 . 7 . . , . . . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . . . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . 9 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . 8 . . . . 4 . . . . . . . . X . . | $$ | . . O X 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O 1 . . . . . , . . . . . , O . . | $$ | . . . . . 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O . . | $$ | . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . X O O . . . . . O . . . . . , X . . | $$ | . X X X O O O . . . . . . . X . . . . | $$ | . . . . X X . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

and

make territory with the White wall. Black enlarges the Black moyo and then :w34:

and

reduce it. :b37:

blocks on the third line with eye shape. Then :w38:

secures the corner and threatens to connect underneath.

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$Wcm34 Elf's mainline for $$ --------------------------------------- $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . O . . X . . X . . . . . . X . . | $$ | . . . 7 6 . 5 8 . , . . . . . , . . . | $$ | . . . O . . 9 0 . . . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . . . 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . X 2 X . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O O X . . . . . . . . . . . X . . | $$ | . . O X . . . 4 . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O , . 3 . . . , . . . . . , O . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O . . | $$ | . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . X O O . . . . . O . . . . . , X . . | $$ | . X X X O O O . . . . . . . X . . . . | $$ | . . . . X X . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

Takagawa's underneath connection surprised me. It seemed too territorial. I expected something like Elf's :w36:

in this diagram. :b37:

is on the frontier of moyos.

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$Wcm44 Elf's mainline for continued $$ --------------------------------------- $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . O . 2 X . . X . . . . . . X . . | $$ | . . . O X . O X . , . . . . . , . . . | $$ | . . . O . . O X . . . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . . . O 4 1 3 . 5 . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . X X X . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O O X . . . . . . . . . . . X . . | $$ | . . O X . . . X . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O , . O . . . , . . . . . , O . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O . . | $$ | . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . X O O . . . . . O . . . . . , X . . | $$ | . X X X O O O . . . . . . . X . . . . | $$ | . . . . X X . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

threatens to cut the four White stones off, but White turns and then boldly jumps into Black's moyo. OC, Black still has around an 80% advantage.

Bill Spight · **#71**

Game 11.

After :w34:

Elf gives one player a winrate estimate of 90½% (28.3k playouts). Which player is it?

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$Wc Black to play. $$ --------------------------------------- $$ | . . . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X X O X . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X O O X . . . . . . X . . . . . . | $$ | . X X O . X . . X , . . . . . X . O . | $$ | . . O . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O . . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X , . . . . . , . . . . . , O . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . X O . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . | $$ | . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . O . O . . . , . . . . . , X . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . O . . . . X . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

Enjoy!

Knotwilg · **#72**

No Lizzie

Joaz Banbeck · **#73**

The hottest region on the board is clearly the left side. My first reaction is that black should play there.
But white has two good options: the connection at 'a' or the capture at 'b'.

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$Wc Black to play. $$ --------------------------------------- $$ | . . . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X X O X . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X O O X . . . . . . X . . . . . . | $$ | . X X O . X . . X , . . . . . X . O . | $$ | . . O . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O . . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X , . . . . . , . . . . . , O . . | $$ | . b . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . X O . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . | $$ | . O a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . O . O . . . , . . . . . , X . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . O . . . . X . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

Because of those, black comes out badly regardless of how he plays on the right. ( Knotwilg has shown us at least one such unpleasant outcome )

So, in a fit of desperation, I would treat all three stones as light, and tenuki. The tenuki would of, course, have to create a situation of an even higher temperature, otherwise white would ignore it and play the connection.

Ideally, I would try to tenuki in such a manner that I might be able to make white commit to a course of action that would tell me which of my left side stones might be worth investing in, and which should be abandoned.

Fortunately for black, such a move exists.

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$Bc $$ --------------------------------------- $$ | . . . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X X O X . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X O O X . . . . . . X . . . . . . | $$ | . X X O . X . . X , . . . . . X . O . | $$ | . . O . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O . . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X , . . . . . , . . . . . , O . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . X O . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . | $$ | . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . O . O . . . , . . . . . , X . . | $$ | . . 1 . . . . . . O . . . . X . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

I'm not sure which of the variations below are best, but all look better for black than trying to fight immediately on the left side.

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$Bc $$ --------------------------------------- $$ | . . . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X X O X . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X O O X . . . . . . X . . . . . . | $$ | . X X O . X . . X , . . . . . X . O . | $$ | . . O . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O . . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X , . . . . . , . . . . . , O . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . X O . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . | $$ | . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . 6 X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . 4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . 3 2 O . O . . . , . . . . . , X . . | $$ | . 5 1 . . . . . . O . . . . X . . . . | $$ | . . . . 7 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$Bc $$ --------------------------------------- $$ | . . . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X X O X . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X O O X . . . . . . X . . . . . . | $$ | . X X O . X . . X , . . . . . X . O . | $$ | . . O . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O . . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X , . . . . . , . . . . . , O . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . X O . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . | $$ | . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . 9 X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . 4 6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . 3 2 O . O . . . , . . . . . , X . . | $$ | . 5 1 . . . . . . O . . . . X . . . . | $$ | . . . . 7 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$Bc $$ --------------------------------------- $$ | . . . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X X O X . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X O O X . . . . . . X . . . . . . | $$ | . X X O . X . . X , . . . . . X . O . | $$ | . . O . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O . . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X , . . . . . , . . . . . , O . . | $$ | . 4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | 6 X O . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . | $$ | . O 5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . 3 X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . 7 O . O . . . , . . . . . , X . . | $$ | . . 1 2 . . . . . O . . . . X . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

When the dust finally settles, I think that I prefer black - but not strongly enough to predict a win rate of 90+ percent.

Knotwilg · **#74**

Lizzie

TelegraphGo · **#75**

This thread has been very enlightening for me. It's surprising how challenging it is to tell the balance of a game when you don't know how it was played! I think I'm getting the hang of it as we go on, starting to figure it out faster and faster. Personally, the only thing that would make this thread any better for me would be the inclusion of "even" as a possibility. After all, when I'm playing a game, it's just as likely to be even as lopsided!

Bill Spight · **#76**

Game 10. Discussion of Elf's commentary

GoGoD 1956-00-00a. Miyashita Shuyo, 8 dan (W) vs. Fujisawa Kuranosuke, 9 dan, 4½ pt. komi

After :w38:

Black's estimated winrate: 91% (119.7k playouts). Black, Fujisawa, won by resignation.

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$Wcm38 Black is ahead $$ --------------------------------------- $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O . O . . . . . . . . 1 . . . . . | $$ | . . X O . . . . . . . X . O . O O . . | $$ | . . X , O . . X . , . . . X X X X . . | $$ | . . . X O O . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . X O X X . . . . . . . . O . . | $$ | . . . X . X O . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X . . X O . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . X O O . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O , X . . . . , . . . . . , . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$Bcm39 Elf's continuation of the game $$ --------------------------------------- $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O . O 6 7 . . . . . . O . . . . . | $$ | . . X O . 5 . . . . . X . O . O O 2 . | $$ | . . X , O . . X . , . . . X X X X 1 . | $$ | . . . X O O . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . X O X X . . . . . . . . O . . | $$ | . . . X . X O . . . . . . . . 3 . . . | $$ | . . X . . X O . . 4 . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . X O O . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O , X . . . . , . . . . . , . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

Black plays sente against the White corner and then plays a shoulder hit against White's orphan in the top right. White bolsters his center group and then Black puts pressure on the White group on the top side.

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$Wcm46 Elf's continuation of the game, II $$ --------------------------------------- $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O . O O X . . . . . . O . . . . . | $$ | . . X O . X . . . . . X . O . O O O . | $$ | . . X , O . . X . , . . . X X X X X . | $$ | . . . X O O . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . X O X X . . . . . . . . O . . | $$ | . . . X . X O . . . . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . X . . X O . . O . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . X O O . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O , X . . . . , . . . . . 6 . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . 4 X 2 . . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . . . . . . . 3 1 . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

invades the bottom right corner. After :b51:

Black's advantage seems fairly apparent to me.

Earlier play.

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$Bcm17 Loss of 10½% $$ --------------------------------------- $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . , O . . . . , . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . . X O O . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . X O X 1 . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . X . X O . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

The natural looking :b17:

loses 10½% according to Elf.

BTW, when I say that a move loses a certain percentage, I mean by comparison with Elf's recommended play, not with Elf's winrate estimate of the previous position, as is often the custom with other comentators.

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$Bcm17 Elf's mainline variation for $$ --------------------------------------- $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . , O . . . . , . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . . X O O . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . X O X . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . X . X O . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . 6 5 0 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . 4 1 2 9 . . . , . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . 3 O 7 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . 8 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

Black tenukies to probe the bottom left corner, leading to a complicated fight.

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$Bcm27 Elf's mainline variation for II $$ --------------------------------------- $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . , O . . . . , . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . . X O O . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . X O X . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . X . X O . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . 7 8 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . 4 3 9 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . 0 O 1 5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O X O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O X O X . . . , . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . X O X 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . O 6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

White secures a large corner in exchange for outside strength.

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$Bcm37 Elf's mainline variation for III $$ --------------------------------------- $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . 4 O . . . . , . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . 2 X O O . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . 3 6 X O X . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . X . X O . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . | $$ | . . 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . X O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . O X X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . O O X X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O X O 5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O X O X . . . , . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . X O . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . O O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

Then White makes a ko in the top left.

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$Wcm18 Elf's recommended variation for $$ --------------------------------------- $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . . . . . 2 . . . . . | $$ | . . . , O . . 0 . , . . 9 . . X . . . | $$ | . . 1 X O O . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . X O X X . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . X . X O . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 . . . | $$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . 6 X 4 . . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . . . . . . . 5 3 . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

After the clamp of :w18:

in the top left, :b19:

encloses the top right corner. Then :w20:

invades the bottom right corner, leading to Black building a large sphere of influence on the right side into the center. :w26:

makes a shoulder hit against the top right corner, and :b27:

starts a large scale attack against :w26:

. Bear in mind that Elf considers this around 10% worse for Black than the previous variation.

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$Wcm18 loses 25% $$ --------------------------------------- $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . 2 O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . , O . . . . , . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . . X O O . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . X O X X . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . X . X O . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . X 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

After

loses 10½% :w18:

returns the favor in spades, losing 25%, a real blunder. :blackeye:

was the 3-3 attachment in the top left corner. Elf agrees with that choice of plays.

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$Wcm20 Elf's mainline after $$ --------------------------------------- $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . 8 6 . 5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . 7 X O . . . 0 . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . 9 1 2 O . . . . , . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . 3 X O O . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . 4 X O X X . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . X . X O . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . X O . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

We have already seen Elf's recommendation for :w18:

, the attachment at C-15. This variation shows Elf's recommended continuation for White after the blunder of :w18:

.

cuts off the 3-3 stone. :b25:

is played as a sacrifice. :b29:

makes some strength on the top side in exchange for the corner sacrifice.

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$Wcm30 Elf's mainline after II $$ --------------------------------------- $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | 5 X X . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . O X O . . . X . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . O O X O . . . . , . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . O X O O . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . X X O X X . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . X . X O . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . X O . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . 2 1 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . , 4 . . . . , . . . . . , . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . 9 6 8 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O 7 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

Next White bolsters his center and then nails down the top left corner. Then Black leans on the bottom left corner to strengthen his group on the left.

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$Wcm26 Loss of 11% $$ --------------------------------------- $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X , O . . X . , . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . . X O O . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . X O X X . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . X . X O . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . a X O . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . X O 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

A little later in the game, Elf thinks that the solid connection, :w26:

, loses 11% by comparison with a.

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$Wcm26 Kikashi first $$ --------------------------------------- $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X , O . . X . , . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . . X O O . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . X O X X . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . X 2 X O . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . 1 X O . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . 6 4 X O 7 . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . 5 3 . . . . , . . . . . , . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

Elf says to play this kikashi first. When you see it, it looks kind of obvious. I doubt that Miyashita overlooked this. The bots seem to be less concerned than humans about aji keshi.

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$Wcm26 Elf's recommended play after $$ --------------------------------------- $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X , O . . X . , . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . . X O O . . . . 4 . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . X O X X . . . . . . . . 0 . . | $$ | . . . X . X O . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . X O . . 3 . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . X O O . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . a , 2 . . . . , . . . . . , . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . 8 X 6 . . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . . . . . . . 7 5 . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

In the game :w28:

was played at a. Elf prefers the jump in the center by 1%, which is well within any margin of error, but I thought that this variation was of interest. To my mind, leaving the four White stones just sitting there is almost an admission that White's recent play in the center was erroneous.

Bill Spight · **#77**

TelegraphGo wrote:

Personally, the only thing that would make this thread any better for me would be the inclusion of "even" as a possibility. After all, when I'm playing a game, it's just as likely to be even as lopsided!

I agree that even is an important category. However, I think that these problems are hard enough as is.

For reference, I am providing some examples which Elf evaluates as even. Hidden out of courtesy.

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$Wcm28 Cho Hun-hyeon, 9 dan (W) - Lee Chang-ho, 7 dan, 1995-09-23a $$ --------------------------------------- $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . , . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . X . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . X O . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . O . . . X . X O . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . X O . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . O X . . X O O . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . O . X . X O , X . . 1 . X . . . | $$ | . . . . . X O O . O X . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

Black winrate 51% (28.6k playouts)

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$Wcm28 Cho Chikun, 9 dan (W) - O Rissei, 9 dan 1998-09-09a $$ --------------------------------------- $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . , . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . X . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . , . X . . . O X O . . O O X X . | $$ | . . O . . . . . X X O X . . O X O O . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . O 1 . . . X X O . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . | $$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

Black winrate 49½% (112.5k playouts)

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$Bcm27 Kudo Norio, 9 dan (W) - Kyo Kagon, 9 dan, 1923-12-05a $$ --------------------------------------- $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X X . X . . . . . . . . . . O . . | $$ | . . . O . X O . . , . . . . O , X . . | $$ | . . . . O O 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . X X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X X O O . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . O X . . . . , . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . . O . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

Black winrate 49½% (89.2k playouts)

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$Bcm33 Hashimoto Utaro, 8 dan (W) - Sakata Eio, 7 dan 1951-05-31a $$ --------------------------------------- $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . X . O . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . O . . . . . . . . . . . O O O . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . X . X . . . . O X . X . O . | $$ | . . . O . . . X O O O . . . . , X . . | $$ | . . . . O X . O X X X O . . . X . . . | $$ | . . . . . X . O . . . 1 . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

Black winrate 50½% (92.5k playouts)

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$Bcm35 Ryu Shikun, 9 dan (W) - Yoda Norimoto, 9 dan 2016-09-01e $$ --------------------------------------- $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . O . . . . O . . . . O O X . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . , . . . . O , X . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . | $$ | . . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . X . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . | $$ | . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . X X O O O . X . , . . . O . X . . . | $$ | . . O X X O X . . O . . . . O O X . . | $$ | . . . X . X 1 O . . . . . . . . X . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

Black winrate 51% (30k playouts)

Bill Spight · **#78**

Game 12.

After :b29:

Elf estimates a winrate of 96½% (8.8k playouts) for one player. Which player is it?

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$Bcm29 White to play $$ --------------------------------------- $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X , O . . . . O . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . . X X X . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . | $$ | . X . O . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . | $$ | . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O X . . . . . , . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . O X . . . X . O . . . X . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

Enjoy!

TelegraphGo · **#79**

96.5%?!

It will be quite embarrassing if I'm backing the wrong horse here. I'm tempted to double-check my analysis with an AI before sounding like an idiot, but I'm really confident to take white every time here. The black wall in the upper left is perfectly nullified by the surrounding white stones - not only can B not play anywhere good to gain locally, but W has the possibility of C14 later, after which every W stone is optimal and B is in pain.

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$cm1 W will probably get to play this later. $$ --------------------------------------- $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X , O . . . . O . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . . X X X . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . Q . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . | $$ | . X . O . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . | $$ | . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O X . . . . . , . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . O X . . . X . O . . . X . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

Also, it is white's move, so W will take sente in the fight on the bottom. I expect that one of the best ways is attaching on top at H4, aiming at making B stupidly overconcentrated. B can resist the following variation, but will still be in similar amounts of pain.

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$Wcm30 B makes about 5 points. $$ --------------------------------------- $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X , O . . . . O . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . . X X X . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . | $$ | . X . O . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . | $$ | . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O X M . 2 1 3 , . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . O X M M 4 X . O . . . X . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . M M . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

Also, there's no good direction for B to attack the right side two-space for W right now, so it's much stronger than it looks. Weakness needs to be converted to territory at some point! Also, B will need to spend another move in both the top right and the bottom right if he wants secure territory. It's easy to see that W should take control of the game, with every single interesting area having a good followup for W and not for B. I would evaluate this board as worth maybe 2-3 handicap stones in W's favor.

Still, 96.5% is more than I've seen in some mathematically winning endgames! I wonder if the ELF is so secure in saying that W is better precisely because of W's whole-board control. In most games, evaluation is really just a balance of one player's advantages versus their opponent's advantages. In this game, B has no clear advantages :oops:

so it's easy to say that W must be winning with perfect play. I didn't think that neural networks 'thought' like this, though, so I'm a little curious as to the implications.
Suppose we replaced W's light two-space on the right side with a heavier weak group, and either the bottom or the top became more worth development by attack, but W is given approximately appropriate compensation on the left somewhere. The intent is that B would have an area of hope somewhere to counter W's advantages globally. Does ELF's evaluation go down, even if the optimal play has one side leading by a similar margin of points? I know bots have a high value on 'initiative' or general control over the flow of the game, but this example in particular seems obscene. Fascinating, though!

Uberdude · **#80**

@TelegraphGo et al

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