97% in 27 moves!!! And I think I actually agree with ELF here - in a casual game, I might just resign very soon as white. What did white even do to get to a position this bad? What did black do to coax out the mistake? I can't tell how this shape could have happened at all.

Not easy. I like moyos better but in this case, White's bottom side stone is oddly placed. In the sgf I'm more comfortable about Black than White.But this is by no means a won game to me.

Another one where I changed my mind midstream. First instinct is black, because white has put all their eggs in one basket, and it reminds me of positions from my own games where I've tried to make a big moyo and watched it shrink. But then again, there's some aji in the lower right corner, so black's territory is smaller than it looks. And white has sente. I find myself wanting to play D14 (although wouldn't the bots invade the 3-3 instead?). Leaning towards white now.

I've been trying judge all the problems posted so far, without reading, just pure instincts and judgement. I'm a territorial player, and I think Black is the one with high win%.

Reason: Despite the aji in the corner, all White stones are projecting a big moyo, but in all positions Black can invade and make sabaki. However for Black, the territory counts are already secured. Even if Black loss the bottom right corner, Black can fight for a wall which will eat into White's moyo. Anyway the winning side is Black.

Elf, assuming area scoring and 7½ pt. komi, estimates a winrate for one player after of 97% with 106.3k playouts. Which player is it?

It's Black.

The game is GoGoD 1933-10-94a, a no komi oteai game between Kitani Minoru, 5 dan (White) and Hasegawa Akira, 5 dan. It was one of the early New Fuseki games, the first game with sanrensei by White. White, Kitani, won by resignation.

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[go]$$Bcm27 Black is ahead, but White won
$$ ---------------------------------------
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . X . . . . . , . . . . X , X . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . O . X . . . |
$$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . , X . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O O . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . O O X X . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . O . O X . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O X X . . |
$$ | . . . O . . . . . O . . . O X O . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

Each player has captured one stone.

Game continuation

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[go]$$Wcm28 Game continuation
$$ ---------------------------------------
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . X . . . . . , . . . . X , X . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . O . X . . . |
$$ | . . . 5 . . . . . , . . . . . , X . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O O . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . O O X X . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . O . O X . . |
$$ | . . . . . 7 . . . . . . . . O X X . . |
$$ | . . . O . . . . . O . . . O X O . . . |
$$ | . . 8 9 . 6 . . . . . . . 1 X 4 . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 2 . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

All of these move are either Elf's top choice or within 1½% of Elf's top choice. and are New Fuseki plays.

Earlier in the game

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[go]$$Bcm5 High flying White
$$ ---------------------------------------
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . b . . . . |
$$ | . . . X . . . . . , . . . a 5 , X . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 . 3 . . . |
$$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . , 1 . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 . . |
$$ | . . d . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 c . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . O . . . . . 4 . . . . . O . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

is unusual, but only a minor error, according to Elf, which recommends the two space high enclosure at a. As the first player, Black has a bit more leeway than White. , on the fifth line, is a definite error, losing 11% to the approach at b. is a common local response to , but is a minor error. Elf recommends approaching the bottom right corner at c, after which White approaches the top right corner at b. , making sanrensei, is another minor error. , another New Fuseki play, is also only a minor error. Elf recommends enclosing the bottom left corner at d. Through White has built a large sphere of influence.

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[go]$$Bcm13 Blunders
$$ ---------------------------------------
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . X . . . . . , . . . . X , X . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . O . X . . . |
$$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . , X . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O 2 . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 4 3 X . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 5 O 9 . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 7 . . . |
$$ | . . . O . . . . . O . . . . . O . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

punches at the gap in White's border. is a small error, perhaps planning the subsequent play. looks like a tesuji, but it is a blunder, losing 23% to par. is also an error, losing 12% to par. Then is another blunder, losing 25% to par. The remaining diagrams show Elf's recommended variations.

is not an error, but Elf prefers another play.

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[go]$$Bcm13 Elf's mainline for
$$ ---------------------------------------
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . X . . . . . , . . . . X , X . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . O . X . . . |
$$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . , X . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 B . . |
$$ | . . 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . O . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . O . . . . . O . . . . . O . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . 5 . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

Elf prefers the calm enclosure for . and strengthen White's wall and cut off the stone. Then invades the bottom right.

No resistance

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[go]$$Wcm14 plays elsewhere
$$ ---------------------------------------
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . 1 2 . . . . . . . . a . . . . . . |
$$ | . . 3 X . . . . . , . . . . X , X . . |
$$ | . . 5 6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . 7 4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . W . X . . . |
$$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . , X . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . W . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 B . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X 0 . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O 9 . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . O . . . . . O . . . . . O . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

For Elf recommends not resisting , but invading the top left corner. breaks into White's sphere of influence, cutting off the floating stones. Then bolsters the bottom right corner with sente. Next, approaches the top right corner at a. White's play is quite light. But pour moi, it goes against the grain to let the stones get cut off and become floating.

Cutting Black in two

is a skillful tactic to build a strong wall, but Elf judges that it is better strategy to cut Black in two.

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[go]$$Wcm16 Difficult fight
$$ ---------------------------------------
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . X . . . . . , . . . . X , X . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . O . X . . . |
$$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . , X . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 4 O O 1 . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 X . . 9 . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 8 X X . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 O . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 . . . . . |
$$ | . . . O . . . . . O . . . 3 . O . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

pushes through the Black position, threatening both sides and starting a difficult fight. responds to . is a strong play, threatening to cut White in two or to give White bad shape. and provide a strong rejoinder. is myoushu.

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[go]$$Wcm26 Difficult fight, continued
$$ ---------------------------------------
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . X . . . . . , . . . . X , X . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 0 . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 . 8 . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . O 5 X . . . |
$$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . a X 7 . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . X X O O O . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . O X . . O . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 O X X X 4 . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X O . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . . . . |
$$ | . . . O . . . . . O . . 1 O . O . 3 . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

at a
secures the Black group. makes territory and threatens to connect to White's group. blocks the connection. Then White strengthens his group by threatening the stones.

is a natural atari, but Elf deems it better to push into the center and cut White in two, while also getting cut in two. But Black has the initiative in the fight.

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[go]$$Bcm17 Center fight
$$ ---------------------------------------
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . X . . . . . , . . . . X , X . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . O . X . . . |
$$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . , X . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 O O . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . 9 . 7 1 X 2 . 3 . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 O B B . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 5 O . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 . . . . |
$$ | . . . O . . . . . O . . . . . O . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

pushes into the center, cutting the White stones off. cuts off the Black center stones in return and threatens to cut off the stones. connects underneath. strengthens the White center stones and threatens the Black center stones. is a driving tesuji. The jump, , is a strong play that seizes the initiative.

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[go]$$Bcm27 Center fight, continued
$$ ---------------------------------------
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . X . . . . . , . . . . X , X . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . 7 . O . X . . . |
$$ | . . . , . . . . . 8 6 1 . . . , X . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . 9 . 3 2 4 O O O . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . X 5 X X X O . X . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . O O X X . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . O . O . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O . . . . |
$$ | . . . O . . . . . O . . . . . O . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

puts pressure on White. is tesuji, setting up the cut at . Black's main center group has more elbow room than White's.

is the play to form a wall, but, again, Elf thinks that White should separate the Black stones.

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[go]$$Wcm20 Let's make a deal
$$ ---------------------------------------
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . 7 8 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . 9 X . . . . . , . . . . X , X . . |
$$ | . . . 0 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . O . X . . . |
$$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . , X . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O O . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . O O X X 5 . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X O 1 3 . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 X 2 a . |
$$ | . . . O . . . . . O . . . . . O . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

saves the stones and leads to a nice exchange. takes sente and invades the top left corner. White can later play at a with sente.

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[go]$$Wcm30 Make a deal, continued
$$ ---------------------------------------
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . O X . . . . . . 8 . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . O X . . . . . , . . . . X , X . . |
$$ | . . 1 X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . 3 4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . 5 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . 7 6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . O . X . . . |
$$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . , X . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O O . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . O O X X O . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X O O O . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X X X . . |
$$ | . . . O . . . . . O . . . . . O . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

gives White a bit more territory in exchange for a stronger wall than usual, and then makes a large sphere of influence.

To me, the flexibility of Elf's play in these variations is impressive.

It seems W should block O3 in sente for Q2 and then ponder. B has a lot of territory, perhaps 40pts on the right and another corner with O8 (and maybe O9) aji.

W has 3 random moves at O10, P9, Q9 that barely do anything. Even if they were placed elsewhere, the lower right looks excellent for B. Hence I think B is leading by a lot.