mhlepore wrote:
My intuition tells me that in human games, being 85% at move 200 would yield a higher ultimate win % than being 85% at move 50.
The more moves that remain, the more humans can screw things up and lose games that are supposed to be winnable. But it would be nice to test with actual data.
Realize that your intuition may be lying to you here. An 85% winrate at move 200 may be (probably is?) a half point lead. However, an 85% winrate at move 50 will be something quite different. Indeed katago's current 40-block calculates a winrate for Black of around 87% for the empty board with komi set to zero and "Japanese" rules.
_________________
Dave Sigaty"Short-lived are both the praiser and the praised, and rememberer and the remembered..."
- Marcus Aurelius; Meditations, VIII 21