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| probability question http://www.lifein19x19.com/viewtopic.php?f=8&t=11570 |
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| Author: | entropi [ Fri Mar 06, 2015 5:54 am ] |
| Post subject: | probability question |
If you choose an answer to this question at random, what is the chance you will be correct? (A) 25% (B) 50% (C) 60% (D) 25% |
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| Author: | Amelia [ Fri Mar 06, 2015 5:59 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: probability question |
It depends. |
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| Author: | Bill Spight [ Fri Mar 06, 2015 6:01 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: probability question |
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| Author: | EdLee [ Fri Mar 06, 2015 6:07 am ] |
| Post subject: | |
Question X: Please first define Question X. |
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| Author: | schawipp [ Fri Mar 06, 2015 6:10 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: probability question |
To make things more desperate you should extend this to ... Quote: If you choose an answer to this question at random, what is the chance you will be correct? (A) 20% (B) 50% (C) 60% (D) 20% (E) 0% |
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| Author: | entropi [ Fri Mar 06, 2015 6:52 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: |
EdLee wrote: Question X: Please first define Question X. EdLee, the question refers to itself. So, "this question" is the question you read. |
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| Author: | DrStraw [ Fri Mar 06, 2015 7:09 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: probability question |
entropi wrote: If you choose an answer to this question at random, what is the chance you will be correct? (A) 25% (B) 50% (C) 60% (D) 25% Zero. Without further information we can only assume that all answers are possible. Therefore the choices form a finite subset of an infinite number of possible answers. The density is zero. If, on the other hand, all possible correct answers are listed and each is considered equally likely then the probability is one third. |
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| Author: | RBerenguel [ Fri Mar 06, 2015 7:13 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: probability question |
DrStraw wrote: entropi wrote: If you choose an answer to this question at random, what is the chance you will be correct? (A) 25% (B) 50% (C) 60% (D) 25% Zero. Without further information we can only assume that all answers are possible. Therefore the choices form a finite subset of an infinite number of possible answers. The density is zero. If, on the other hand, all possible correct answers are listed and each is considered equally likely then the probability is one third. Measure or (in some cases, depending on the use) capacity is zero. A set does not have density, but is either dense or not (depending on a metric.) |
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| Author: | DrStraw [ Fri Mar 06, 2015 7:16 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: probability question |
RBerenguel wrote: DrStraw wrote: entropi wrote: If you choose an answer to this question at random, what is the chance you will be correct? (A) 25% (B) 50% (C) 60% (D) 25% Zero. Without further information we can only assume that all answers are possible. Therefore the choices form a finite subset of an infinite number of possible answers. The density is zero. If, on the other hand, all possible correct answers are listed and each is considered equally likely then the probability is one third. Measure or (in some cases, depending on the use) capacity is zero. A set does not have density, but is either dense or not (depending on a metric.) Agreed. But most people here are not mathematicians. As I was writing in English I used a term which I would expect to be clearer to everyone. |
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| Author: | RBerenguel [ Fri Mar 06, 2015 7:28 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: probability question |
Got it, I just read it in mathematician eyes but now I think of it I can't find a clearer English word aside from density. Weird, I bet there should be one... |
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| Author: | RobertJasiek [ Fri Mar 06, 2015 7:50 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: probability question |
Since it may be any random distribution with any probability, there are an infinite number of such probabilities but only a finite number of available answer probabilities. Hence the answer is: "almost 0". With a model of an increasing number of distributions and finally infinitely many, the answer is: "converges to 0 from its positive side". |
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| Author: | Fedya [ Fri Mar 06, 2015 7:59 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: probability question |
I'm reminded of the mathematician joke that ends with the punchline, "The mathematician picks up the flamethrower and sets the house on fire, thereby reducing the problem to a case previously solved." |
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| Author: | Bill Spight [ Fri Mar 06, 2015 9:10 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: probability question |
RobertJasiek wrote: Since it may be any random distribution with any probability, there are an infinite number of such probabilities but only a finite number of available answer probabilities. Hence the answer is: "almost 0". With a model of an increasing number of distributions and finally infinitely many, the answer is: "converges to 0 from its positive side". In English "to choose at random" means to choose so that each option has the same probability of being chosen. |
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| Author: | Joelnelsonb [ Fri Mar 06, 2015 9:23 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: probability question |
%0.0 Chance given that the correct answer is not actually listed. |
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| Author: | RobertJasiek [ Fri Mar 06, 2015 10:46 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: probability question |
Bill Spight wrote: In English "to choose at random" means to choose so that each option has the same probability of being chosen. I'd say that "to choose at random uniformly / with a uniform distribution" would mean this. At least in (precise) German, one needs to say "gleichverteilt zufällig wählen". |
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| Author: | Bill Spight [ Fri Mar 06, 2015 10:50 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: probability question |
RobertJasiek wrote: Bill Spight wrote: In English "to choose at random" means to choose so that each option has the same probability of being chosen. I'd say that "to choose at random uniformly / with a uniform distribution" would mean this. At least in (precise) German, one needs to say "gleichverteilt zufällig wählen". Quote: Deutlich ist Deutschlich. 
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| Author: | ez4u [ Fri Mar 06, 2015 5:04 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: probability question |
Bill Spight wrote: RobertJasiek wrote: Since it may be any random distribution with any probability, there are an infinite number of such probabilities but only a finite number of available answer probabilities. Hence the answer is: "almost 0". With a model of an increasing number of distributions and finally infinitely many, the answer is: "converges to 0 from its positive side". In English "to choose at random" means to choose so that each option has the same probability of being chosen. So you believe the statement, "He played at random", indicates that the 1-1 points were as likely to be chosen as Tengen? I believe that English in the hands, hmmm... in the mouths that is, of us normal folks has nothing like the precision that can be ascribed to mathematical jargon.
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| Author: | mitsun [ Fri Mar 06, 2015 6:07 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: probability question |
What is the correct answer to this question? (A) Answer B is correct. (B) Answer A is correct. |
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| Author: | DrStraw [ Fri Mar 06, 2015 6:24 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: probability question |
mitsun wrote: What is the correct answer to this question? (A) Answer B is correct. (B) Answer A is correct. They are both correct. If A is the correct answer then it says that B is the correct answer, which is fact true. And vice versa. Alternatively, neither are correct. If A is wrong then it says B is not the correct answer, so A is wrong. And vice versa. Take your pick. |
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| Author: | mitsun [ Fri Mar 06, 2015 6:31 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: probability question |
(A) Statement B is true. (B) Statement A is false. |
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