Hi guys,
I put some research into this and here's my attempt at an answer.
As background, I've played chess since I was 7, just on and off, and I'm about a 1500 rating, and I've played go on and off (with some periods of heavy study) for the past 15-years, and I'm currently a 3k on OGS. So this topic has been of interest to me for a long time.
My intuition was that I've put more work into go than chess and therefore I'm stronger, and I think my research confirms that.
I looked at this from a couple different angles: first comparing OGS to chess.com, then comparing top pros in each, and then comparing OGS to USCF ratings.
My conclusion at the end.
Online servers: OGS compared to chess.comChess.com shows a small distribution next to your own rating:
Attachment:
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It says the avg rating is 800
There's a distribution of the rankings on OGS (albeit unoficial):
https://forums.online-go.com/t/unofficial-ogs-rank-histogram-2021/35705Attachment:
OGS2.png [ 76.82 KiB | Viewed 6515 times ]
Here the average rank is 9 kyu.
The problem with this comparison is that it's different populations. Chess is much more popular than go (about 800 million players compared to 40 million). And chess.com is way more popular than any go server. The population of chess.com is more "players who know how to play," where the population of OGS is closer to "players who actively play and study."
My own experience doesn't match this either. As a 10-year old, I knew the rules but not much else and I played around an 800 level at online chess, but it took me over a year of playing and some study to reach 9k in go.
Top player comparisonA better comparison would be to look at the progression of top players in each game and compare. The problem here is I couldn't find anything that showed the progression of top Asian go players, so I had to use EGF pros.
here's a great article on chess.com looking at the progression of several top GMs: [url]https://www.chess.com/article/view/chess-grandmaster-hours
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Top GMs study about 4 hours/day, 5 days a week, for about 1,000 hours per year.
Here's my chart:
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chess gms.png [ 49.6 KiB | Viewed 6515 times ]
Here's the average of their progression:
Age Rating
7... 700
8... 1100
9... 1600
10... 1850
11... 2050
12... 2175
13... 2275
14... 2350
15... 2425
16... 2500
17... 2575
18... 2650
I then looked at several of the top EGF players and did my own analysis of their progression:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/11oUpQrIRzYlEP90TEySb4XHonupCzLN9/view?usp=sharingAverage of their progression:
Age.... Go rank
6.... 20k
7.... 14k
8.... 16k
9.... 10k
10.... 5k
11.... 3k
12.... 1k
13.... 2d
14.... 2d
15.... 3d
16.... 4d
17.... 5d
18.... 5d
19.... 6d
20.... 6d
21.... 6d
22.... 6d
23.... 1p
Comparing the data yields this:
Age, Go Rank, Chess Rank
7 | 14k | 700 |
8 | 16k | 1100 |
9 | 10k | 1600 |
10 | 5k | 1850 |
11 | 3k | 2050 |
12 | 1k | 2175 |
13 | 2d | 2275 |
14 | 2d | 2350 |
15 | 3d | 2425 |
16 | 4d | 2500 |
17 | 5d | 2575 |
18 | 5d | 2650 |
Took the EGF players a little longer to reach pro than the GMs, but again, not an exact population match. The chess GMs above are top players, "super GMs," while the European Go players, no offense, are closer to average or below average Go professionals.
So I would say the chess ratings here are comparatively stronger than the go ratings for the same age.
Still, I think we're getting somewhere. Especiacially when you consider that "average" chess GMs reach GM level at about age 18:
https://chess.stackexchange.com/questions/9891/what-is-the-average-age-to-become-a-grandmaster#:~:text=For%20players%20born%20after%201945,average%20is%2021%20years%20oldhere's another good article discussing the GM progression in chess:
https://coloradomasterchess.com/informant-ratings-and-expectations/Magnus Carlsen Compared to Lee SedolWhen you look at two of the best ever at their game, in similar eras, I think it yields a good comparison. Problem is, I couldn't find data on Sedol below 1p.
But here's a summary:
Carlsen
- Age 14: Achieved GM (2500)
- 15: 2625
- 16: 2710
- 18: 2801
- 19: #1 rating in the world
- 23: World champion (probably could have been earlier)
Lee Sedol
- 12: 1p
- 15: 2p
- 17: 3p
- 20: 6p, LG Cup winner
- 20: 7p
- 20: 9p, won Fujitsu cup
Pretty similar arcs.
From this I think we can conclude 1p and GM (2500 rating) are pretty comparable, and it still takes many years for even the best to go from 1p/GM to world champion.
OGS compared to USCF ratingsFinally, I looked at a chart of rating distribution from the US Chess Federation:
http://www.uschess.org/archive/ratings/ratedist.phpThis data, to me, is the best comparison to the OGS data. I think the populations are closer: people who actively play and study. It also it lines up better with the conclusions from above and my own experience and intuition.
So, here's the final concise comparison I put together comparing OGS and USCF:
Percentile, Go rank, Chess rating
1% | 35k | 0 |
10% | 25k | 200 |
20% | 20k | 400 |
37% | 15k | 700 |
50% | 12k | 1000 |
60% | 10k | 1200 |
74% | 7k | 1450 |
82% | 5k | 1600 |
92% | 2k | 1800 |
96% | 1d | 2000 |
99% | 3d | 2200 |
100% | 9d | 2700 |
No perfect, but I think this is the best comparison I've seen.
Yes, I spent way too much time on this. No, I don't have anything better to do.