Are pros being underestimated?

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John Fairbairn
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Re: Are pros being underestimated?

Post by John Fairbairn »

It is not about pro versus ai.
I don't see that anyone is making that argument here. My own argument is that some, and maybe too many, people are making that argument implicitly, in favour of AI, by being overattracted by the AI bling and throwing the pro baby out with the bath water. They are therefore neglecting a highly valuable resource.
They complement each other beautifully.
I obviously agree with the first part of that sentence. How well they complement each other has yet to be determined, however. I personally haven't seen much in the chess world that suggests chess pros have learnt much beyond the highly esoteric variations of some openings and endgames. Early indications in the go world seem similar to me.

I am always suspicious of those amateurs who claim to have improved X grades by spending Y hours studying with AI, in go or in chess. My first hypothesis is usually that the improvement is due to the Y hours, not the AI, and that similar improvement could be expected if they spent Y hours using some other means of study. It's the hours that count. Of course if the bling or the availability of AI gives you the motivation to put in the Y hours, then more power to your elbow. But, unless you can prove it, don't pretend it's the machine that did it.

At the pro level, I think you can make a case that the machine did effect some improvement, but not because it was a machine. Rather it was through demonstrating possible new moves and thus erasing blind spots: moves of the type "Oh, I didn't know you could do that!" The early 3-3 invasion was an example of that. But this is exactly what happened when Shuwa started playing 4-4, when Shuho started playing on the 4th line, when Shuei emphasised the centre, when Go Seigen played the keima from 4-4 instead of ogeima, when Kitani played weird josekis, when Takagawa played early caps (just like AI's early shoulder hits), when Sakata played 3-3 in empty corners, when Takemiya went to the moon, etc etc. They weren't machines but they all had similar effects to what is going on now. And not every other pro at the respective times had much idea of how to explain why these new ideas worked. In essence, I'd say it was just a case of pros increasing their vocabulary of go (or making the tool-box bigger, or whatever analogy you prefer). The main complementary effect of AI that I see is that it confirms the acceptability of each new "word" much, much faster than the trial error of previous generations. Pros can therefore now become stronger quite quickly by having a bigger go vocabulary. They have long ago mastered the grammar of go (for most of them it was a mother tongue learnt young). They are now just expanding their range. The fact that they still don't really understand how that helps them (no more than anyone really understood what effect Shin Fuseki had) is independent of that, in just the same way that even a scholar who writes well can't really explain why Shakespeare is a better writer than J K Rowling (or if he really is).

But that's for pros. Amateurs still need to learn the grammar of go, and pros are the best and maybe the only source for that, though they do seem to believe that playing over lots of games (putting in the Y hours) and building up intuition is really the only reliable way to do that. Amateurs learning go by just learning esoteric "vocabulary" items from AI is just as daft as a beginner learning dirty or obscure words in a real language. One thing that gives Japanese people a good smirk is when a swaggering gaijin shows them he can write ringo (apple) in kanji, which not all that many Japanese can do. Of course the Japanese are "only 9-dans" at their own language and the poor gaijin wouldn't be able to tell them anything useful, such as their postilions have been struck by lightning. But it seems there are plenty of amateurs who want to be a ringo gaijin in go.

AI charts are a useful gimmick in presenting go games, of course. But those little green round things may be apples, you know :)
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Re: Are pros being underestimated?

Post by dfan »

John Fairbairn wrote:I personally haven't seen much in the chess world that suggests chess pros have learnt much beyond the highly esoteric variations of some openings and endgames.
If you would like a few hundred pages of interesting evidence to the contrary, I recommend the entertaining and educational book Game Changer: AlphaZero's Groundbreaking Chess Strategies and the Promise of AI by GM Matthew Sadler and WIM Natasha Regan.
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Re: Are pros being underestimated?

Post by John Fairbairn »

Thx, will hunt it out, though the title doesn’t seem to say quite what you imply
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Re: Are pros being underestimated?

Post by RobertJasiek »

KGS shows such graphs after my games, which are byoyomi only. Quite a few games have the "pro" graphs. Some games with wild fights have frequently changing percentage winners. It is mainly a matter of thinking time. With long time, there would be by far fewer upsets even in fighting games.

"endgame play is close to perfect": Although pro endgame is strong, this is an over-interpretation. Another possible interpretation is that both players make about the same sizes of mistakes as the game progresses. (Presuming AI would only make small mistakes.)
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Re: Are pros being underestimated?

Post by dfan »

John Fairbairn wrote:Thx, will hunt it out, though the title doesn’t seem to say quite what you imply
Leaving the title aside (although I thought the word "strategies" was a hint that it supported my description of the content), here's an excerpt from the introduction that lists a few topics where recent AI engines have changed the ways that top-level professional players think about the game (no openings or endgames included, esoteric or otherwise):
  • Outposts (Chapter 7): we examine the variety of ways in which AlphaZero secures valuable posts for its pieces, from the knight and bishop all the way up to the king itself.
  • Activity (Chapter 8): AlphaZero is skilled in maximising the mobility of its own pieces and restricting its opponent’s pieces. We pay particular attention to the ways that AlphaZero restricts the opposing king.
  • The march of the rook’s pawn (Chapter 9): AlphaZero frequently advances its rook’s pawn as part of its attack and plants it close to the opponent’s king.
  • Colour complexes (Chapter 10): Matthew explains AlphaZero’s fondness for positions with opposite-coloured bishops.
  • Sacrifices for time, space and damage (Chapter 11): AlphaZero makes many brilliant sacrifices for long-term positional advantage.
  • Opposite-side castling (Chapter 12): we consider some stunning examples in which castling queenside was the prelude to a dangerous AlphaZero attack.
  • Defence (Chapter 13): we learn about the contrasting defensive techniques of AlphaZero and Stockfish.
Of course none of the things listed here are entirely new tools, but pros' opinions of their applicability and relative importance changed after AI demonstrations. My understanding is that the Go world is similar.
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Re: Are pros being underestimated?

Post by John Fairbairn »

I've already ordered the book, thank you.

This made me smile:
The march of the rook’s pawn (Chapter 9): AlphaZero frequently advances its rook’s pawn as part of its attack and plants it close to the opponent’s king.
When I was working on computer shogi, I attended lots of major chess events (as a journalist) and met lots of top players. My basic spiel was always "why don't you try shogi" of course. Conversations about the differences in shogi would often ensue, and one of them is that it is very common to push the edge pawns early in shogi - moves than can seem mysterious to weaker players. I can't remember who it was, but one grandmaster leapt on that with pleasure because he'd noticed early pushes of the rook's pawns was a distinctive feature of Bent Larsen's play that had intrigued him, and he wondered where it had come from. Another person said he knew that Larsen had at least looked at shogi.

Another shogi feature that excited grandmasters was the shogi technique of castling in which the king goes on a march. This became a fairly common tactic/strategy in chess around then but I have no idea if it was borrowed from shogi.

I remember standing next to Karpov as he analysed games in the press room (i.e. seeing the game from the same angle as him) and being struck both in his play and comments by a resemblance with pro shogi talk (of which I had the good fortune to get a lot).

Chess people told me that many of them had looked at shogi, found it fascinating and had probably borrowed ideas from it. Larsen may have done this, but he wasn't around for me to ask. I did ask various players why they didn't give shogi a try professionally - the money's much better in Japan - and I think Walter Browne summed the general reaction best: "I've spent a lifetime getting this far in chess. Why should I give all that up?"

Later on, there were a couple of cases where shogi and chess pros did try the other game at a high level. Larry Kaufman was then not quite the chess grandmaster he is now but he was almost certainly the strongest western shogi player, yet he found it impossible to get beyond being a strong amateur. The other way round, Habu Yoshiharu, a shogi sensation (think Sin Chin-seo in go), tried out pro chess and got to FIDE Master level. I'm not sure what represents but it's clearly not Grandmaster level. So my earlier assumptions that top pros in one chess variant could transfer their skills to another were, in practice, probably too optimistic.
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Re: Are pros being underestimated?

Post by gowan »

There is a lot of talking to the effect we can't learn well from AI because they can't teach by explaining things the way humans do. There is a common teaching technique that is used by masters teaching disciples by telling them that what they are doing is wrong without explaining why. Apparently the idea is that the pupil is required to figure out for him or her self what is "right". This could be frustrating for the student but if one figures things out for one's self it will be well understood and could even lead to creativity.
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Re: Are pros being underestimated?

Post by kvasir »

gowan wrote:There is a lot of talking to the effect we can't learn well from AI because they can't teach by explaining things the way humans do. There is a common teaching technique that is used by masters teaching disciples by telling them that what they are doing is wrong without explaining why. Apparently the idea is that the pupil is required to figure out for him or her self what is "right". This could be frustrating for the student but if one figures things out for one's self it will be well understood and could even lead to creativity.
In the end it is always the student that learns. Reminds me of Meno's paradox. Also if pro knowledge can be overwritten by AI knowledge is this then a sign that this was all only true believe?
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Re: Are pros being underestimated?

Post by Knotwilg »

gowan wrote:There is a lot of talking to the effect we can't learn well from AI because they can't teach by explaining things the way humans do. There is a common teaching technique that is used by masters teaching disciples by telling them that what they are doing is wrong without explaining why. Apparently the idea is that the pupil is required to figure out for him or her self what is "right". This could be frustrating for the student but if one figures things out for one's self it will be well understood and could even lead to creativity.
Adding to that, I don't know how one could advocate "replay pro games" as a well tested method to improve while warning against "learning from AI", which is essentially watching a pro playing live.

Also, pros learn from and with AI. What's good for the pros is not always the best diet at the recreational level, so I'd agree that as a beginner or whatever digit kyu or low dan it's best to learn from a guide, who can articulate things and can pace out the learning curve, but as one grows stronger, there is definitely a case to be made for learning more like pros do. I'm not watching over the pro's shoulders as they learn, so I accept they will often revert to old masters games, as a way of finding fresh ideas, or calibrating the AI "truth" for its fundamental or specific aspect. But AI is a fundamental part of their study, so we can't be too far off if we do that ourselves, not farther off than anything else we do as mere amateurs.
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Re: Are pros being underestimated?

Post by jlt »

I've taken a few lessons with pros and high dan amateurs, and use AI on a regular basis. I felt I learnt with both. Not because pros can't show the same things as AI, but because AI talks to me much more often. However I only spend a few minutes to review each game. Go is just a hobby and I prefer to spend most of my time playing, without caring too much to improve. The AI is just there to fill my need for explanations: what was the joseki move? Was there a way to kill the black group at move 124? How to defend at move 146? What happens if Black cuts at move 157?
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Re: Are pros being underestimated?

Post by John Fairbairn »

Dieter, it’s not just replaying pro games, it’s doing that in a very specific manner, namely from a single diagram (and not clicking through an sgf file). The idea is to turn every move into a next-move problem Doing that enhances the experience (apparently - I’ve never really tried it against the clock, though I have done a lot of transcribing.

Also it is misleading to talk about a warning against AI. As far as I am concerned, the danger I is throwing the baby out with the bath water as nd forgetting the valuable human pro resource. This is especially likely to happen when people say to themselves AI is free but pro resources cost money.
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Re: Are pros being underestimated?

Post by Knotwilg »

John Fairbairn wrote:Dieter, it’s not just replaying pro games, it’s doing that in a very specific manner, namely from a single diagram (and not clicking through an sgf file). The idea is to turn every move into a next-move problem Doing that enhances the experience (apparently - I’ve never really tried it against the clock, though I have done a lot of transcribing.
OK - thanks for reminding and restating that challenge. I might give it a try.
John Fairbairn wrote: Also it is misleading to talk about a warning against AI. As far as I am concerned, the danger I is throwing the baby out with the bath water as nd forgetting the valuable human pro resource. This is especially likely to happen when people say to themselves AI is free but pro resources cost money.
Also fair.

I have taken lessons with Guo Juan, who could articulate pro understanding to a certain extent. I eventually opted out of it because I didn't get what I expected from it - which is my responsibility not hers. The best articulated pro level understanding I've ever come across was that by Kang Minue which took a hybrid form of KGS lessons, sgf outtakes and articles on SL.

As I've probably already recalled too many times, my most tangible progress came from self review, 20 years ago. Now that could be a combination of relatively young age (30) or the fact that 2k-2d is easier to cross than 2d-3d. But indeed it could be due to my approach at the time, which was void of any influence and using the physical goban for review and replaying from memory, rather than letting the sgf take care of that and browse through it.

With your repeated hinting at the dangers of AI-only based progress attempts, I may actually return to the slow, goban based analysis, without permanent supervision by AI which both inflates the impression of good review and degrades the actual work the brain must do.
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Re: Are pros being underestimated?

Post by Elom0 »

John Fairbairn wrote:I've already ordered the book, thank you.

This made me smile:
The march of the rook’s pawn (Chapter 9): AlphaZero frequently advances its rook’s pawn as part of its attack and plants it close to the opponent’s king.
When I was working on computer shogi, I attended lots of major chess events (as a journalist) and met lots of top players. My basic spiel was always "why don't you try shogi" of course. Conversations about the differences in shogi would often ensue, and one of them is that it is very common to push the edge pawns early in shogi - moves than can seem mysterious to weaker players. I can't remember who it was, but one grandmaster leapt on that with pleasure because he'd noticed early pushes of the rook's pawns was a distinctive feature of Bent Larsen's play that had intrigued him, and he wondered where it had come from. Another person said he knew that Larsen had at least looked at shogi.

Another shogi feature that excited grandmasters was the shogi technique of castling in which the king goes on a march. This became a fairly common tactic/strategy in chess around then but I have no idea if it was borrowed from shogi.

I remember standing next to Karpov as he analysed games in the press room (i.e. seeing the game from the same angle as him) and being struck both in his play and comments by a resemblance with pro shogi talk (of which I had the good fortune to get a lot).

Chess people told me that many of them had looked at shogi, found it fascinating and had probably borrowed ideas from it. Larsen may have done this, but he wasn't around for me to ask. I did ask various players why they didn't give shogi a try professionally - the money's much better in Japan - and I think Walter Browne summed the general reaction best: "I've spent a lifetime getting this far in chess. Why should I give all that up?"

Later on, there were a couple of cases where shogi and chess pros did try the other game at a high level. Larry Kaufman was then not quite the chess grandmaster he is now but he was almost certainly the strongest western shogi player, yet he found it impossible to get beyond being a strong amateur. The other way round, Habu Yoshiharu, a shogi sensation (think Sin Chin-seo in go), tried out pro chess and got to FIDE Master level. I'm not sure what represents but it's clearly not Grandmaster level. So my earlier assumptions that top pros in one chess variant could transfer their skills to another were, in practice, probably too optimistic.
Even more than philosopho-strategic advancement AI has brought about in Chess, of which I already am very interested, I wonder about AI contribution to Elephant Chess and Shogi all three games are likely to now be played by AI at a high level and with correct philosophy, so we can safely take it's opinions as divine ordinance. Large-size gameboards bigger than modern shogi is not 'solved' by AI to the level amateurs tend to behave.

As far as I know, while ways have been found to program pure neural nets to have some competency on ladders without it being hardcoded, they still fail on the fancy ones. This shows certain situations covering the breadth of the board are still beyond the scope of AI, and another example which shows this is Igo-Hatsuyron 120.

It's simply the case that human pros have not discovered these limitations partly because it would be hard, too, for human pros to discover it. But if it is they'd be able to reduce their handicap to the current level of AI form two-and-a-half stones to one-and-a-half-stones.

The Irony is that Neural Nets were employed to play pro-level go and they did do that, but for the games of Chess and Shogi, a new level beyond pro-level play has been achieved; philosphical perfection, you can take bots at there chess-playing word. Go is still yet to be 'cracked' in that regard, so ironically still remains an AI enigma compared to other games.
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Re: Are pros being underestimated?

Post by dhu163 »

Well, I tried out the guessing game on the most recent KG net (took me many hours). I wrote down my top 5 suggestions (often only 1 when tired or thought it was obvious).

kata1-b60c320-s642... rating game 758309

Unfortunately for the stats, the latter half of middlegame was a ko, for which I could guess the top move most of the time.

Of 262 moves, here is the rank of my move, where ? indicates a move outside of my top 5.
1:154
2:27
3:9
4:5
5:3
?:64

As you can see the AI openings are comparatively fixed, so the first 50 moves can be easy. Arguably fighting can be easier because there is often just one move to save/kill a group. The most difficult was the opening-middlegame transition and then the middle-late endgame (where there are lots of smaller moves).

Sometimes there is lian2guan4si1lu14 (connected plans), so knowing the AI move tells you the next few AI moves, but sometimes it is misleading towards the end of the game when the loser starts messing around.

In the chart, I plotted moves outside my top 5 as a score of 7 (the lower the better match I have with AI).
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Re: Are pros being underestimated?

Post by John Fairbairn »

Well, I tried out the guessing game on the most recent KG net (took me many hours). I wrote down my top 5 suggestions (often only 1 when tired or thought it was obvious).
Assuming I'm right in thinking what was going on, my basic response to that is that although this version of the guessing game is valid (in fact GoGoD introduced at a London Go Congress many years ago) and popular - Bill Spight was a big fan - this is not quite what I am talking about here. And so not what the Japanese pros are talking about.

What is meant here is taking a single diagram (which will average about 250 moves) and recreating the game move by move on a board (or making an sgf record, of course) as quickly as possible. No real thinking, just intuition. There is no need to work out a list of candidate moves or to assess them relative to each other. The idea is simply to find the next move as quickly as possible, to place it on the board, and go straight on to the next one.

Mark Hall could often do this in about 20 minutes per game, which is a stellar performance according to the scoring criteria given in Japanese magazines, where I think 30 minutes is the top level for amateurs. There are pros who can do this at high speed just playing the game over in their heads and not on a board, AND understand it enough to make comments such as "White 142 missed a chance to kill Black." But actually Mark could do that sort of commentary as well (he just couldn't do the in-head stuff). In contrast, I could usually transcribe a game in well under an hour but I would very often fall asleep in the middle. That is not a self-deprecating joke: I really did find it soporific. Mark could do six hours at time, but four hours was usual, which is why the GoGoD database (and others based on it :evil: ) is so large.

I'll try and find an example from Go Monthly and post it here, but it won't be for a little while. Too many new dances to learn this week.

Incidentally, one other thing that Mark found, which illustrates it was his intuition that was being improved rather than his go "knowledge", was that on the rare occasions he transcribed an amateur game, it took him more like an hour and drove him nuts. Even though these were high-level amateur games (e.g. Amateur Honinbo final) the amateurs were not making the moves in the places he (so used to pro play by then) expected to find them.
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