Life In 19x19

Instead of speaking of "probably" alive / dead, speak of the "n-alive" degree! This is much simpler, because you are not confronted with infinitely many possible values of probabilities but only with the possible values for n = -2 (or smaller), -1, 0, 1, 2 (or bigger), *.

http://senseis.xmp.net/?NAlive

Ask yourself "Is the group at least 0-alive?" and answer that by reading. If yes, answer 1-alive. If no, answer -1-alive etc.

Yes, reading is necessary, of course.

Ask yourself "Is the group at least 0-alive?" and answer that by reading.

Given that this is where the "probably" part of the discussion comes from, I don't think your explanation is any simpler.

Reading is not simple, but the following considerations for the attacker prune the complexity:

- surround the group
- reduce the eyespace while keeping the reduction strings string- or directly connected
- play functional sente (such as threats to cut)
- play reverse sente to prevent forcing moves
- prevent partition of the eyespace
- construct nakade
- keep the eye value below 2
- avoid seki and ko