Life In 19x19

And wrote:AmiGo 10k
https://github.com/breakwa11/GoAIRatings
and somewhere else it was 11k

ez4u wrote:If you were correct, why would that be interesting?

And wrote:thank! I want to "simulate" something that looks like a pro - agz match. If you think the option I have chosen is not suitable, which programs are better? what is possible to do on a home pc

Pippen wrote:

ez4u wrote:If you were correct, why would that be interesting?

Because it could show if we (humans) still have a (small) chance. It would also be a nice marketing gig for Go and professional Go. I'd love Deepmind to dig out AGZ for such a purpose.

It is not an impossible task. AlphaGo did not solve the game of Go nor does it play by brute force which means there are always chances that a game can slip away from AI and if you increase the amount of Go players to play AGZ you will certainly get some wins. The question is not if, but how many you need. 100? 1000? 10.000? 100.000?

And wrote:

gennan wrote:I think the odds of a 10k beating me is many orders of magnitudes greater than the monkeys typing all of Shapespeare's works within a billion years. Occasionally, I make a blunder of 100+ points. I don't know how often, but once in a 100 games or so is not far off, I think. Such odds are not crazy small.

if you make mistakes, you are not playing at full strength. the computer makes no mistakes

gennan wrote:

And wrote:

gennan wrote:I think the odds of a 10k beating me is many orders of magnitudes greater than the monkeys typing all of Shapespeare's works within a billion years. Occasionally, I make a blunder of 100+ points. I don't know how often, but once in a 100 games or so is not far off, I think. Such odds are not crazy small.

if you make mistakes, you are not playing at full strength. the computer makes no mistakes

If I wouldn't make mistakes, I would be world champion. If a computer makes no mistakes, then how is it possible that Lee Sedol beat AlphaGo once?

We all make mistakes, humans and AI. The size and frequency of those mistakes determines our levels (distance from perfect play).

And wrote:wondering how you calculate the probability of winning. can you show with an example? suppose 1dan vs 9dan

Elo = -7 * ln(3300 - GoR) * 400 / ln(10) + 10500
GoR = 3300 - exp(((10500 - Elo) / 7) * ln(10) / 400)

gennan wrote:I'm much more interested in the komi gap between pros and AI, which is much easier to determine. And you don't even need pros for that. Anyone can determine their komi distance to KataGo (at some standardized number of playouts).

gennan wrote: I assume you mean 1d EGF and 9d EGF. That would be like an even game match between a decent 1d EGF (~1900 Elo) and O Rissei 9p (~3200 Elo). That's a 1300 Elo gap, which suggests that the 1d wil win about 1 in 1800 games.

Pippen wrote:I don't agree with you that AI is so far away. It uses almost exclusively heuristics which has always some significant blind spots that can be exploited. Give professionals enough time (not like when AlphaMaster played those 60 pros with fast pace on Tygem) and I claim that in 100 games we get a win in an even game. And if I was not just some random dude but Elon Musk we might have a project at hand.