Life In 19x19

I don't understand. If two players are of equal rank, the winning chance is on average 50%. So how could a player of equal rank "know that their winning chances are 0 - 10%"?

In real life tournaments, you cannot pick your opponents, but on many go servers it is possible to pick your opponents. Because of that, players can avoid playing opponents that have a good recent winning record, or players whom they know are stronger than them in real life. By this they can inflate their server rating relative to the average skill required for that rating.

This is not going to work indefinitely ofcourse, but I guess that players who carefully pick their opponents can succesfully exploit the system to inflate their server rating by 1-2 ranks.

Equal real world ranks in the same system mean about 50% winning chances. Equal server ranks mean that real world ranks are up to ca. +-6 apart. Therefore, some opponents with equal server rank have almost 0% winning chance. This also applies to non-escapers' server dan ranks.

Some people behave very differently on servers than in real life.

Player A is EGF 2k and plays seriously on KGS and is 2d there.
Player B is EGF 3d but only plays blitz on KGS and is 2d there.

In a real-life tournament, B has less than 10% chances of winning against A, but about 50% winning chances on KGS.

The same applies to friendly club games. Winning rates in casual games can be very different than winning rates in tournaments.

jlt wrote:I don't understand. If two players are of equal rank, the winning chance is on average 50%. So how could a player of equal rank "know that their winning chances are 0 - 10%"?

People's strength doesn't jump up and down in discrete amounts of 1 stone. You'd expect within 2d there to be near to 1 stone in strength difference between the weakest cohort and the strongest cohort within the rank. In EGF terms think about rating vs rank.

I know, but if two players are 100 rating points apart, the chances of winning of the weakest player are probably much higher than 10%.

When checking statistics from EGD tournament games, winning probabilies near 10% in even games are commonly observed when the rank gap between the players is 3 to 3.5 ranks for dan players and more than 4 ranks for SDK players.

jlt wrote:I know, but if two players are 100 rating points apart, the chances of winning of the weakest player are probably much higher than 10%.

Sorry, misread equal rank as both 2d not equal rating. In a tournament setting the winrate is probably above 10%. Online, not sure, playing environments/player condition are uncontrolled. (Oh definitely wasn't saying it's 90/10 between two 2d's, only that it's not necessarily 50/50. The spread as far as I know in winrate within a rank is not the same at 2d and 10kyu)

gennan wrote:When checking statistics from EGD tournament games, winning probabilies near 10% in even games are commonly observed when the rank gap between the players is 3 to 3.5 ranks for dan players and more than 4 ranks for SDK players.

I would have thought that even games between kyu players more than 2 ranks apart would be very rare in the EGD stats being usually below the bar?

It isn't something that can be made opensource easily as there is a very steep learning curve to how it all functions

No offense here, but this is a completely invalid reason. Source is source, you put it out there and smart developers will figure it out and even help clean it up for you (for FREE, typically). You say you have limited resources, yet then push out reasons like that.

Do you think your code base is more complex than the linux kernel, or even many open source games, UI kits, etc? I doubt it... yet many, many people contribute to the linux kernel and various other extremely complex open source projects. I hate to say it but KGS needs a major shake-up or its probably dead, and the mindset expressed in that quote gives little hope that it will actually happen.

I still think that the way to make KGS better today is to improve and promote the HTML5 clients. In particular GoUniverse is underpromoted in my opinion.
Opening the server side source code would have little benefit unless all the work involved goes into improving the HTML5 Client, because the basic design of KGS basically has everything you need, unless you want to turn it into a Casino, or offer the opportunity to play strip 3D-Go.

Second to that is a peculiar reluctance to promote KGS at a basic level

Look at the FFG https://ffg.jeudego.org/php/jouerSurInternet.php
this links to http://elvire.scheibling.free.fr/perso/goweb/kgs.html which is over 10 years out of date

Look at the BGA https://www.britgo.org/gopcres/play#server
It still says that there is only a Java client despite there being several British Admins working on KGS

Okay, people find out how to play online on their own, but isn't it just basic marketing to get your up to date branding out there?

The BGA page also says

However from May 2020 a new web interface is being introduced called Shin KGS.

jlt wrote:The BGA page also says

However from May 2020 a new web interface is being introduced called Shin KGS.

Yes. ShinKGS is over 4 years old, it's a stable client, but here it is described as new.

Boidhre wrote:

gennan wrote:When checking statistics from EGD tournament games, winning probabilies near 10% in even games are commonly observed when the rank gap between the players is 3 to 3.5 ranks for dan players and more than 4 ranks for SDK players.

I would have thought that even games between kyu players more than 2 ranks apart would be very rare in the EGD stats being usually below the bar?

Roughly 10% of the EGD games in the range 10k-2d are between players more than 2 ranks apart. That's not very rare, I think.

gennan wrote:

Boidhre wrote:I would have thought that even games between kyu players more than 2 ranks apart would be very rare in the EGD stats being usually below the bar?

Roughly 10% of the EGD games in the range 10k-2d are between players more than 2 ranks apart. That's not very rare, I think.

Ah, from looking at the 2015-2019 data (I figure 2020 data is going to be weird) There's something of a threshold in tournaments here anyway around perhaps 2k where you start being above the bar more often than not and be playing even. Below that it would normally be handicap-1 or handicap-2. Around 90% of even games at mid sdk are G+1 and G+2 but yeah around 10% are G+3 and G+4 which is higher than I thought (I expected it to be less than 5% for mid SDK based on tournaments I've seen). G+1 in the winning rate table on the EGD is all even games up to 1 stone difference?