Life In 19x19

would be nice if fan tingyu could achieve the same as seo bongsoo did; 9 wins.

Still a chance Park or Iyama could get 5/6 wins in a row though. Since Fan did get 7 already.

To create a miracle, Iyama needs 5 wins, and Park would need 6.

kimidori wrote:

This Nongshim Cup is reminiscent of what's happening in individual world championships this year, where China is dominating. The sheer depth they have shown is crazy, where Korean players have been terribly inconsistent outside Park and Shin.

IMO Park's condition is not really good recently, and Shin still needs a little more to be considered a top 5. Too bad that Lee Sedol lost early, his experience is still useful in international tournaments (not against Ke Jie though).

Still, the fact that Korea has to rely on those three every tournament to contend is an issue itself, since they can't afford to have any stretch of bad forms. China, on the other hand, regularly advances different players to the quarterfinals of different tournaments, so they could afford having Ke Jie being a little shaky the first half of the year or having Chen Yaoye cool off some after a good stretch since players like Fan Tingyu, Fan Yunruo, Zhou Ruiyang, or Tuo Jiaxi could easily go on a run; heck, even Prof. Peng and Mengmeng could surprise here and there.

kimidori wrote:To create a miracle, Iyama needs 5 wins, and Park would need 6.

Need to draw inspiration from Lee Changho in 2005. The run he had in those first 6 Nongshim Cups was truly legendary.

Weren't there mutterings on the Chinese weiqi forums questioning the inclusion of the 2 Fan's in the team? Fan Tingyu's countered those criticisms rather well!

Chang Hao was saying how different this is to the disaster of 1993 in the related 5 player 3 country, team win and continue tournament, where China had no wins, Nie was knocked out by Yoda. From then, this was so disappointing in contrast to the victories in the China-Japan supergo, with progress of the youngsters too slow, that this shock led to a big push in go.

even so, Korea has dominated for nearly 30 years until about 2013

Tang Weixing was expressing worry before the LG semi-final that in each game the Korean seems to have a stronger chance on paper, but with China dominating 6-2 in the quarter final, having an all Korean final would be hard to accept: normal 3 years ago, but not these days. Then he says that maybe it would be a good thing though, let the Koreans win some. ... but Park and Shin were both knocked out.

Uberdude: how do you calculate winning probability for go elo ratings?

If Japan win, nobody will question about Iyama Yuta's world ranking for at least ten years.

dhu163 wrote:Uberdude: how do you calculate winning probability for go elo ratings?

For Remi's WHR ratings on goratings.org, it's the standard Elo formula e.g. http://www.bobnewell.net/nucleus/bnewell.php?itemid=279. I don't know if the Chinese pro ratings or the Korean Park Taeil or mamumamu's follow that too.

Uberdude wrote:

dhu163 wrote:Uberdude: how do you calculate winning probability for go elo ratings?

For Remi's WHR ratings on goratings.org, it's the standard Elo formula e.g. http://www.bobnewell.net/nucleus/bnewell.php?itemid=279. I don't know if the Chinese pro ratings or the Korean Park Taeil or mamumamu's follow that too.

but the chess and go ratings have different numbers for their parameters.
http://www.europeangodatabase.eu/EGD/EG ... system.php

I couldn't find a reliable source for the chess a factor, but Wikipedia suggests 400. But EGD uses around 70 at a high level. So a 400 point rating difference in chess has equivalent win probability as 70 in go (pretend no draws are possible). So perhaps you probabilities should be much more extreme. e.g. rating gap of 70 to imply 25:75 chances

I couldn't find a explicit reference to any value of a factor in the Remi Coulom paper, unless the rescaled "natural rating" is relevant.

Uberdude wrote:

dhu163 wrote:Uberdude: how do you calculate winning probability for go elo ratings?

For Remi's WHR ratings on goratings.org, it's the standard Elo formula e.g. http://www.bobnewell.net/nucleus/bnewell.php?itemid=279. I don't know if the Chinese pro ratings or the Korean Park Taeil or mamumamu's follow that too.

The Chinese rating system is described here http://baike.baidu.com/view/8060410.htm(in Chinese) with standard Elo probabilities shown in the table included. Mamumamu uses glicko-2 instead of elo so has a completely different scale.

dhu163 wrote:I couldn't find a reliable source for the chess a factor, but Wikipedia suggests 400. But EGD uses around 70 at a high level. So a 400 point rating difference in chess has equivalent win probability as 70 in go (pretend no draws are possible). So perhaps you probabilities should be much more extreme. e.g. rating gap of 70 to imply 25:75 chances

400 points in chess is 9-1 odds according to Newell, which would imply that Ilja has 9-1 chances of beating Artem (if 70 points EGD = 400 points in Chess). Am I misreading? Because that seems high.

dhu163 wrote:but the chess and go ratings have different numbers for their parameters.
http://www.europeangodatabase.eu/EGD/EG ... system.php

I couldn't find a reliable source for the chess a factor, but Wikipedia suggests 400. But EGD uses around 70 at a high level. So a 400 point rating difference in chess has equivalent win probability as 70 in go (pretend no draws are possible). So perhaps you probabilities should be much more extreme. e.g. rating gap of 70 to imply 25:75 chances

I couldn't find a explicit reference to any value of a factor in the Remi Coulom paper, unless the rescaled "natural rating" is relevant.

The GoR system (EGD) is not universal to go, it is just one possible implementation of the system. Original Elo uses 1 / 1 + 10^(D/400) whereas GoR in its higher ranks uses 1 / 1 + e^(D/70) (but uses higher numbers than 70 at lower ranks). The fact that Elo uses 10 as a base while Gor uses e means that in you cannot compare the 400 and 70 factors directly. In practice, the difference is smaller, and using e as a base, chess rating effectively use 173.3 (i.e. 10^(D/400) = e^(D/173.3). Remi's implementation, AFAIK, uses the original simpler Elo rating without the extra variable that GoR introduces.

ah I see thanks, that makes sense, I'm a mathematician, but didn't notice the 10

9th game;

Park Junghwan defeated Fan Tingyu by resign.

Korea: Park Junghwan, Kim Jiseok, Kang Dongyoon(seeded), Lee Sedol, Lee Donghoon
China: Ke Jie, Tuo Jiaxi, Lian Xiao, Fan Yunrou, Fan Tingyu
Japan: Iyama Yuuta, Murakawa Daisuke, Kono Rin, Ichiriki Ryo, Cho U

Bold case - alive

2nd round ended.

See you in February!!!!!

3rd round,
2/21 - 10th game
2/22 - 11th game
2/23 - 12th game
2/24 - 13th game
2/25 - 14th game

Is the next match Park Junghwan vs. Iyama Yuta?