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Re: Predict AlphaGo on Future of Go Summit in Wuzhen, China
Posted: Tue May 23, 2017 2:44 pm
by djhbrown
dhu163 wrote:what alphago was thinking
call that thinking! how dare you show disrespect for a true champion by claiming that a dumb bot thinks...
as to changing probabilities, it matters not what opp does (well, it does, but that's not the point) - imagine you are walking down the street, and see a pretty girl; you think to yourself "this is a nice place"; then you take another step and walk into a lamppost you hadn't noticed because you were goggling at the girl. the lamppost didn't move, and the girl wasn't real, just a bunch of coloured pixels in your brain, but you could now see further into the future because you were one step further away from the past.
Re: Predict AlphaGo on Future of Go Summit in Wuzhen, China
Posted: Tue May 23, 2017 3:14 pm
by yoyoma
dhu163 wrote:there are mutterings about move 54. it does look very strange a play to cut in gote. Ke Jie said no human would play there, but that post game review showed it was a good move. Supposedly alphago's own winning percentage dropped from 58.3% to 56.3% after it chose it compared to the direct and natural attack at L3.
My source is
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1_QXFJl0UJE listing which moves caused 2% shifts in alphago's winning percentage.
Next move 69 etc was a big mistake, the percentage going to 62.8%.
And Move 97, called an attempt to mimic alphago's style my playing in the centre (too late though) lost ke jie 4%. Though after move 99, alphago lost a little confidence. But after finding 110, it recovered. And it agreed with Redmond saying 111 should be G12.
at 118, B's winning percentage was 32%
Since I can't find any other source for this, I'm not sure what to think. He also mentioned alphago was leading by 18 points at one point.
dhu163 do you know Chinese? What does the title of the video say?
【快報!資料庫分析與整理】人機大戰最關鍵的幾個點 (已由網友們確定是crazy stone數據, 小心慎入)
I don't know Chinese and Google translate doesn't help much but my guess is they are getting the win percentages from CrazyStone.
Re: Predict AlphaGo on Future of Go Summit in Wuzhen, China
Posted: Tue May 23, 2017 3:28 pm
by djhbrown
poor old JueYi, barely a month old and already second fiddle to the Anciem Regime. Mind you, some of the best things in the world are French, or at least, that's what they tell me.
_______________________
nil illegitemati carborundum
Re: Predict AlphaGo on Future of Go Summit in Wuzhen, China
Posted: Tue May 23, 2017 5:33 pm
by dhu163
i see, that says big news, deep analysis, crazystone data,
so sorry about that ...
how strong is crazy stone these days?
Re: Predict AlphaGo on Future of Go Summit in Wuzhen, China
Posted: Tue May 23, 2017 5:37 pm
by pookpooi
Niconico stream has DeepZenGo winrate, which is probably the best trustful number we can find at this moment (don't know about FineArt)
Re: Predict AlphaGo on Future of Go Summit in Wuzhen, China
Posted: Tue May 23, 2017 8:37 pm
by djhbrown
is the The Future of Go Summit Future of AI forum online anywhere?
Re: Predict AlphaGo on Future of Go Summit in Wuzhen, China
Posted: Wed May 24, 2017 12:22 am
by Pippen
Anywhere a detailed analysis from the game like this once here:
https://www.remi-coulom.fr/CrazyStone/a ... index.html?
Re: Predict AlphaGo on Future of Go Summit in Wuzhen, China
Posted: Wed May 24, 2017 12:29 am
by Uberdude
Re: Predict AlphaGo on Future of Go Summit in Wuzhen, China
Posted: Wed May 24, 2017 12:41 am
by pookpooi
Re: Predict AlphaGo on Future of Go Summit in Wuzhen, China
Posted: Wed May 24, 2017 9:45 pm
by xiayun
Game 2 has been much more fierce so far. Very complicated.
Re: Predict AlphaGo on Future of Go Summit in Wuzhen, China
Posted: Wed May 24, 2017 9:58 pm
by dhu163
the chinese commentators (gu li, etc) have been impressed by ke jie and are actually quite optimistic
Re: Predict AlphaGo on Future of Go Summit in Wuzhen, China
Posted: Wed May 24, 2017 10:06 pm
by dhu163
the feeling is maybe the top right was wrong for ke jie, but actually demis said it was perfect play for the first 30 moves. Next, they criticised Ke Jie for playing on the left and not protecting on the lower side. Alphago played some very strange and crude moves, but then that it seemed W was in serious trouble. But it was a huge complicated mess with the life and death of 6-10 groups unclear.
Then Ke Jie played a brilliant move on the upper side preparing for the ko.
Then on, they can't find a way out for alphago from the complications due to the huge ko on the lower left that could kill B's group, and so they've been optimistic for quite a while though it is too complicated to say. And they still think Ke is playing very well, finding better moves than they've noticed.
Re: Predict AlphaGo on Future of Go Summit in Wuzhen, China
Posted: Wed May 24, 2017 10:10 pm
by dhu163
Gu Li just said he thinks alphago's winning percentage is probably higher for Ke Jie!
Re: Predict AlphaGo on Future of Go Summit in Wuzhen, China
Posted: Wed May 24, 2017 10:13 pm
by djhbrown
long ago, i predicted that Ke Jie would win on points in the second round, to keep the audience enthralled, only to be crushed by an uppercut in the third. let's see what happens on Saturday
Re: Predict AlphaGo on Future of Go Summit in Wuzhen, China
Posted: Wed May 24, 2017 10:19 pm
by dhu163
unsurprisingly Gu Li now notices good moves for alphago.
he predicts several different options that might happen since often W might be behind by a ko threat.
Or B ends the ko, W captures the top right, seals in the centre B group for a semeai where W loses the lower right. And W tries to kill the entire top side.