Life In 19x19

Android sales seem to be booming, apparently due to a wide choice of phone designs and networks. Blackberry still beats Google and Apple both though.

Yeah, I was happy to see that. My guess, though, is that next quarter the new iPhone will come out, and iPhone sales will jump past Android again. But with just one phone a year, all made by the same company, I think it will be very hard for the iPhone to hold out against Android for very long.

Incidentally, the KGS applet sales started out strong in the first month, then dipped down quite a bit in the second month. I expected this, as a bunch of people would buy right away but then not many after that. But then, I'm happy to say, sales have steadily grown ever since! I suspect that this is because the Androids are becoming more popular very quickly.

Yep. I've recently applied to a job doing web development for mobiles, and if I get it, I'll also have to get a shiny new Android phone... and a copy of KGS for it to boot.

fwiffo wrote:Android sales seem to be booming, apparently due to a wide choice of phone designs and networks. Blackberry still beats Google and Apple both though.

Actually, other reports are saying that those figures are bogus, because they're based on a self-selected survey... Unless there are real numbers from the manufacturers, I don't think we'll know. Apple does publish iPhone unit sales, at least in each quarter; I don't know about the Adroid manufacturers.

Alright, I'll admit I was at least partially trolling kirkmc with this post. But NPD is a fairly established market research company. It's not just some random, self-selected online survey. I'll let statisticians weigh in on their methodology, but they take care to properly weight for demographics, etc.

NPD press release wrote:Methodology: The NPD Group compiles and analyzes mobile device sales data based on more than 150,000 completed online consumer research surveys each month. Surveys are based on a nationally balanced and demographically-representative sample, and results are projected to represent the entire population of U.S. consumers. Note: Sales figures do not include corporate/enterprise mobile phone sales.

(original press release)

The results are not particularly surprising. Android has many phones, by several manufacturers, in many form factors on all the major phone networks. Apple has a couple versions of one phone, by one manufacturer, in one form factor, on one network.

fwiffo wrote:Alright, I'll admit I was at least partially trolling kirkmc with this post. But NPD is a fairly established market research company. It's not just some random, self-selected online survey. I'll let statisticians weigh in on their methodology, but they take care to properly weight for demographics, etc.

NPD press release wrote:Methodology: The NPD Group compiles and analyzes mobile device sales data based on more than 150,000 completed online consumer research surveys each month. Surveys are based on a nationally balanced and demographically-representative sample, and results are projected to represent the entire population of U.S. consumers. Note: Sales figures do not include corporate/enterprise mobile phone sales.

(original press release)

The results are not particularly surprising. Android has many phones, by several manufacturers, in many form factors on all the major phone networks. Apple has a couple versions of one phone, by one manufacturer, in one form factor, on one network.

It's still self-selected; they ask people to reply to the survey, they don't do what real pollsters do and analyze and alter the stats according to demographics.

I agree that Android has many phones, and it wouldn't surprise me if they sold more. In fact, it would surprise me if they didn't.

kirkmc wrote:It's still self-selected; they ask people to reply to the survey, they don't do what real pollsters do and analyze and alter the stats according to demographics.

Kirk, your bias is showing. They are real pollsters, so by definition they are doing what "real pollsters" do. Pollsters use different kinds of poll in different circumstances, and they all have strengths and weaknesses. And, if you had read fwiffo's info, they are indeed weighting based on demographics.

You can still argue over how accurate this type of poll can be, but to make snarky comments about "real pollsters" and say that they are taking shortcuts (when they state quite clearly that they are not taking these shortcuts) is not particularly helpful.

wms wrote:

kirkmc wrote:It's still self-selected; they ask people to reply to the survey, they don't do what real pollsters do and analyze and alter the stats according to demographics.

Kirk, your bias is showing. They are real pollsters, so by definition they are doing what "real pollsters" do. Pollsters use different kinds of poll in different circumstances, and they all have strengths and weaknesses. And, if you had read fwiffo's info, they are indeed weighting based on demographics.

You can still argue over how accurate this type of poll can be, but to make snarky comments about "real pollsters" and say that they are taking shortcuts (when they state quite clearly that they are not taking these shortcuts) is not particularly helpful.

A number of press outlets have questioned the way the data is collected; I'm not making this up.

Frankly, I have no bias toward the iPhone, any more than I have bias toward any smartphone. They're a swindle to convince people who don't need them to spend more than $50 a month on a telephone. I don't have one, and probably never will.

kirkmc wrote:A number of press outlets have questioned the way the data is collected; I'm not making this up.

I've seen some questions on how accurate the data is, but overall mostly the points I've seen that lessen the importance are:

1. Some iPhone purchasers may be holding off for the next generation, probably coming in June.
2. The poll only counts phones, not pads or pods.
3. Android sales have been largely driven by deals offering the phones for much less money
4. Apple's sales are hampered by the iPhone being AT&T-only

#1 and #2 are IMHO real reasons why the poll may be underreporting how interested people are in iPhone and iPhone-like devices. #3 and #4 are, again IMHO, good reasons why Apple will have a hard time beating Android long term; when you have dozens of phones coming out from many different manufacturers, it will drive prices down and in general give end users more choices. Apple is rumored to be ending the AT&T-only deal soon, and that will probably help iPhone out, but it's still going to be one company making one handset and that's a tough position to be in.

fwiffo wrote:Alright, I'll admit I was at least partially trolling kirkmc with this post.

I thought about posting this too, for the exact same reason.

@wms:

1) The same argument could be made (to a lesser degree) for people waiting for the HTC Droid Incredible. There are always a few people (not always the same people) who are holding off until the next generation or model of whatever, or waiting a couple months until the price drops.

2) Pads and Pods aren't phones. It's not a survey of portable music/video players or tablet PCs. They're not counting mp3 players by other companies, and they're not counting other tablet PCs (though truthfully, the iPad is the only interesting tablet until Android or ChromeOS tablets become widely available).

3) That's probably not going to change. Cell phone companies have been using phones as a loss-leader to rope people into draconian contracts for a while, and there's no reason to believe they won't continue to do so.

kirkmc wrote:They're a swindle to convince people who don't need them to spend more than $50 a month on a telephone. I don't have one, and probably never will.

QFT. I spent about six months deciding whether it was worth it to me to spend $500 per year to turn my cell phone into a pocket-computer/Internet-device/geek-bling. I decided that it was worth it, but I don't think it is for most people if they think about it that way. It's definitely a luxury, though most people spend more than that on things like cable TV without really batting an eye. I'm sure wms will be happy to know that the KGS client was a factor tipping the scales (though it was always going to be an Android phone if I was going to get a smartphone at all.)

wms wrote:

kirkmc wrote:A number of press outlets have questioned the way the data is collected; I'm not making this up.

I've seen some questions on how accurate the data is, but overall mostly the points I've seen that lessen the importance are:

1. Some iPhone purchasers may be holding off for the next generation, probably coming in June.
2. The poll only counts phones, not pads or pods.
3. Android sales have been largely driven by deals offering the phones for much less money
4. Apple's sales are hampered by the iPhone being AT&T-only

#1 and #2 are IMHO real reasons why the poll may be underreporting how interested people are in iPhone and iPhone-like devices. #3 and #4 are, again IMHO, good reasons why Apple will have a hard time beating Android long term; when you have dozens of phones coming out from many different manufacturers, it will drive prices down and in general give end users more choices. Apple is rumored to be ending the AT&T-only deal soon, and that will probably help iPhone out, but it's still going to be one company making one handset and that's a tough position to be in.

Well, I don't think adding the iPod touch or iPad to the numbers would make sense, because they don't make calls.

I wouldn't bet against Apple; look what they've done with the iPod against a plethora of competitors. I think they started with considerable handicaps with the iPhone, and have done admirably in a very short time. (I for one thought the iPhone would fail.)

You're right about Android phone subsidies; they are very impressive, and they show that, at least in the US, manufacturers are spending a fortune to try and get customers.

More choice in a market like that is certainly a Good Thing. But I still think it's a racket, and that people are just flocking to smartphones like sheep, when they really don't need them. But that's a lone, dissenting opinion.

fwiffo wrote:

kirkmc wrote:They're a swindle to convince people who don't need them to spend more than $50 a month on a telephone. I don't have one, and probably never will.

QFT. I spent about six months deciding whether it was worth it to me to spend $500 per year to turn my cell phone into a pocket-computer/Internet-device/geek-bling. I decided that it was worth it, but I don't think it is for most people if they think about it that way. It's definitely a luxury, though most people spend more than that on things like cable TV without really batting an eye. I'm sure wms will be happy to know that the KGS client was a factor tipping the scales (though it was always going to be an Android phone if I was going to get a smartphone at all.)

Yea, people see the price of the phone, and seem not to be able to do the math of multiplying the monthly cost by 12. But you're right about cable; I'm stunned when I hear how much some people pay for TV in the US. (Here in France, there is less choice, and the total you can pay is around $100.)

To be fair, we got my son an iPhone, mostly because my brother-in-law works for the phone company that was the first (but no longer) exclusive seller here in France and we got a discount on both the purchase price and the subscription. But he's 19, studying web design, and it's pretty helpful for him, being away from home and not having a fixed phone line, to have a device like that. He travels on the train when he comes home, trains that are often delayed, and it allows him to find when his connections will be, among other things. And he's the ultimate Apple fanboi.

I am stunned by the costs I read here.

I paid 200€ for an Android device (Samsung i5700) and I am very happy with it. My monthly rate is 10€ for a data flat (200MB at UMTS speed, after that GPRS) and no other fees.

Reading your numbers of over 50$ a month, 500$ a year was a shock. Are rates in Germany that much lower?

(Oh, the first hack to get Android running on the iPhone was successful; far from useful yet, but running.)

Inmare wrote:My monthly rate is 10€ for a data flat (200MB at UMTS speed, after that GPRS) and no other fees.

Reading your numbers of over 50$ a month, 500$ a year was a shock. Are rates in Germany that much lower?

Smartphone subscriptions, with unlimited data and unlimited cell-to-cell calls, were about $70/month in the US when I got mine (last December). They may have dropped now, not sure. Most smartphones vendors require you to get a subscription like that. So yes, a smartphone in the US is going to require an expensive monthly fee. But they still sell in ever-increasing numbers.