17th Nongshim Cup

jeromie · **#61**

emeraldemon wrote:

Here is goratings prediction for each player left in the table:

Ke Jie beats Lee Sedol : 64.271 %
Ke Jie beats Lian Xiao : 70.098 %
Ke Jie beats Iyama Yuta : 61.314 %
Ke Jie beats Murakawa Daisuke : 92.115 %
Lee Sedol beats Lian Xiao : 56.582 %
Lee Sedol beats Iyama Yuta : 46.838 %
Lee Sedol beats Murakawa Daisuke : 86.656 %
Lian Xiao beats Iyama Yuta : 40.337 %
Lian Xiao beats Murakawa Daisuke : 83.286 %
Iyama Yuta beats Murakawa Daisuke : 88.053 %

Now some smart person tell me the odds for each team to win based on these...

Based on these numbers, Korea has an 8.2% chance of winning, Japan has a 22.3% chance of winning, and China has a 69.5% chance of winning.

I'd show my work, but it's too messy. :-)

yoyoma · **#62**

I thought I would write a quite python script to iterate over the combinations and calculate it... It seems like it should be simple but I gave up.

If someone writes one post the code. :geek:

wineandgolover · **#63**

Maybe the players can just roll Elo-weighted dice, and finish the whole series tonight without any messy byo yomi problems. ;-)

jeromie · **#64**

yoyoma wrote:

I thought I would write a quite python script to iterate over the combinations and calculate it... It seems like it should be simple but I gave up.

If someone writes one post the code. :geek:

I can share my spreadsheet if you want. :-)

wineandgolover wrote:

Maybe the players can just roll Elo-weighted dice, and finish the whole series tonight without any messy byo yomi problems. ;-)

Yeah, even though I calculated the odds I think that putting too much weight on such things is kind of silly. Each game still has to be played on the board. All the odds really do is confirm (and quantify) what we knew: China is still the favorite to win the tournament, but they aren't a lock.

trout · **#65**

11th game;
Lee Sedol defeated Murakawa Daisuke by resign.

Remaining players;
Korea:Lee Sedol, Choi Cheolhan, Min Sangyeon, Baek Chanhee, Park Junghwan
China:Ke Jie, Lian Xiao, Wu Guangya, Fan Yunruo, Gu Li
Japan:Iyama Yuuta, Murakawa Daisuke,Ida Atzshi, Ichiriki Ryo, Kono Rin
bold - Remaining players.

3rd round: 3/1/2016~3/5/2016

hyperpape · **#66**

jeromie wrote:

Yeah, even though I calculated the odds I think that putting too much weight on such things is kind of silly. Each game still has to be played on the board. All the odds really do is confirm (and quantify) what we knew: China is still the favorite to win the tournament, but they aren't a lock.

Taking current ratings and a cut-off of 50 ELO points difference as the dividing line between a coin-flip and a surprise, we get the following:

Predicted: Ichiriki over Baek
Surprise: Ichiriki over Fan
Coin Flip: Ichiriki over Min
Predicted: Chen over Ichiriki
Predicted: Choi over Chen
Predicted: Choi over Ida
Coin Flip: Gu over Choi
Predicted: Gu over Kono
Surprise: Gu over Park
Surprise: Murakawa over Gu
Predicted: Lee over Murakawa

So we have 6 accurate predictions and 3 surprises, which I'm guessing is itself not surprising. Maybe I need to tighten up my criterion of "surprise": 50 ELO is really not that big.

What that underscores is that most of these predictions are pretty modest. Take the Chen over Ichiriki game: it's big enough that I called it predicted, but the prediction is just that Chen has something like a 63% chance of winning. That's good, but if it had gone the other way, we wouldn't be shocked.

hyperpape · **#67**

yoyoma wrote:

I thought I would write a quite python script to iterate over the combinations and calculate it... It seems like it should be simple but I gave up.

If someone writes one post the code. :geek:

I almost got it done yesterday evening in JS. I've been mulling over making a little app to simulate tournaments, and maybe this will be the kick to do it.

Wouldn't call it too simple: if you use straightforward recursion, there's a fair bit of book-keeping.

yoyoma · **#68**

Got my python script working. :ugeek:

I get similar numbers to jeromie, differences could be rounding errors, or because I looked at today's goratings and they probably changed some. Anyways from before Lee Sedolbeat Murakawa Daisuke:
J = 0.2273
C = 0.6946
K = 0.078

pastebin of the python: http://pastebin.com/MARi39r0 (Oops I messed up the paste, line 57 is repeated, delete one of them if you try this)

Odds before Murakawa Daisuke > Gu Li. Impact of Murakawa's win in parenthesis

Code:

    before   after  difference
J = 0.1527  0.2273 (+0.0746)
C = 0.7885  0.6946 (-0.0939)
K = 0.0588  0.078  (+0.0192)

And finally after Lee Sedol > Murakawa Daisuke:
J = 0.2201
C = 0.6887
K = 0.0913

seigenblues · **#69**

We'll be broadcasting Lian Xiao vs Lee Sedol tonight on the AGA Youtube & twitch! the usual...

Uberdude · **#70**

seigenblues wrote:

We'll be broadcasting Lian Xiao vs Lee Sedol tonight on the AGA Youtube & twitch! the usual...

Thanks for doing all these broadcasts. It's great that there is now too much quality English Go content for me to consume!

trout · **#71**

12th game;
Lee Sedol defeated Lian Xiao, by resign.

Players;
Korea:Lee Sedol, Choi Cheolhan, Min Sangyeon, Baek Chanhee, Park Junghwan
China:Ke Jie, Lian Xiao, Wu Guangya, Fan Yunruo, Gu Li
Japan:Iyama Yuuta, Murakawa Daisuke,Ida Atzshi, Ichiriki Ryo, Kono Rin
bold - Remaining players.

3rd round: 3/1/2016~3/5/2016

PlaySlow · **#72**

seigenblues wrote:

We'll be broadcasting Lian Xiao vs Lee Sedol tonight on the AGA Youtube & twitch! the usual...

Thank you for your coverage! It really provides us great insight. However it would be very good if you can start coverage from the first move. You are skipping the opening phase and start commenting on variations starting from mid game generally. I hope you would cover fuseki too in the incoming games:)

RedStick · **#73**

@playslow. I haven't watched yesterday's game yet but I've seen most of their streams and they pretty much always get to the fuseki at some point although it can sometimes be like an hour in and usually when the players are doing a lot of thinking. A review that started from the first move would be very long and would drag a lot more. I like the approach of starting with a middle game position and then backing up to see how they got there.

jeromie · **#74**

So now we get Lee Sedol vs Iyama Yuta with the winner going on to face Ke Jie. What a great end to this tournament!

trout · **#75**

13th game;
Lee Sedol defeated Iyama Yuuta by resign.

Players;
Korea:Lee Sedol, Choi Cheolhan, Min Sangyeon, Baek Chanhee, Park Junghwan
China:Ke Jie, Lian Xiao, Wu Guangya, Fan Yunruo, Gu Li
Japan:Iyama Yuuta, Murakawa Daisuke,Ida Atzshi, Ichiriki Ryo, Kono Rin
bold - Remaining players.

3rd round: 3/1/2016~3/5/2016

Kirby · **#76**

Thanks for the report, trout. It seems that Lee Sedol and Ke Jie will face each other once again. It should be an exciting match!

"Alpha-dol" (I guess a play on Lee Sedol's name due to his upcoming match against AlphaGo) was quoted, after his match with Iyama Yuta 9d ([1]):

Alpha-dol wrote:

커제에게 이길 때는 됐는데 그게 내일인지는 모르겠어요. 커제가 잘 두니까.

"It's come time for me to win against Ke Jie, but I don't know if that will happen or not tomorrow. Because Ke Jie plays well." (His current record against Ke Jie is 2-7, according to the article.)

Whatever the case, let's hope for an exciting final match!

---
[1] https://www.cyberoro.com/news/news_view ... num=521362

macelee · **#77**

The final game enters small yose now. Look like another comfortable win of Ke Jie, he is so strong.

Lee Sedol tried his best, including a very very deep invasion.

trout · **#78**

14th game;
Ke Jie, defeated Lee Sedol by resign.

Players;
Korea:Lee Sedol, Choi Cheolhan, Min Sangyeon, Baek Chanhee, Park Junghwan
China:Ke Jie, Lian Xiao, Wu Guangya, Fan Yunruo, Gu Li
Japan:Iyama Yuuta, Murakawa Daisuke,Ida Atzshi, Ichiriki Ryo, Kono Rin
bold - Remaining players.

Nomgshim cup goes to China!!!!!!!!!!

pookpooi · **#79**

Ke Jie is so strong that it's hard to find the upper bound of his strength since there's no such a stronger opponent for him (for now)

Kirby · **#80**

macelee wrote:

The final game enters small yose now. Look like another comfortable win of Ke Jie, he is so strong.

Lee Sedol tried his best, including a very very deep invasion.

I think their record is like 8-2 now, in Ke Jie's favor, so Ke Jie definitely has good record against Sedol. That said, I don't think that the game was one sided the entire time.

In the middle of the game, there was an interesting aji for a capturing race after Lee Sedol played this cut:

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$ $$ --------------------------------------- $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X O . O O O . O . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X O O X X X X , . . . . . , X . . | $$ | . . X O X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X X X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O . . . . . X . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . O O X . X . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O . O X O . X O . . . . . . O . . | $$ | . X X O . X O . O , . . . . . , . . . | $$ | . X O X . X . O . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . X O . X . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X . . . X O X . O . . . . O O . . | $$ | . . X O O . . X W . . . . . X X X O . | $$ | . . O X . . X . . . . . . . . . O X . | $$ | . . O , . O X . . O . . . O X , X . . | $$ | . . . O . O . X . O . . . O . X . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . X O . . . . X . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

For example:

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$ $$ --------------------------------------- $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X O . O O O . O . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X O O X X X X , . . . . . , X . . | $$ | . . X O X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X X X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O . . . . . X . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . O O X . X . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O . O X O . X O . . . . . . O . . | $$ | . X X O . X O . O , . . . . . , . . . | $$ | . X O X 2 X . O . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . 3 . . . X O . X 1 . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X . . . X O X . O . . . . O O . . | $$ | . . X O O 4 . X O . . . . . X X X O . | $$ | . . O X . . X . . . . . . . . . O X . | $$ | . . O , . O X . . O . . . O X , X . . | $$ | . . . O . O . X . O . . . O . X . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . X O . . . . X . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

Presumably, Ke Jie read out that he had more liberties and the capturing race would be fine, so he extended:

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$ $$ --------------------------------------- $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X O . O O O . O . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X O O X X X X , . . . . . , X . . | $$ | . . X O X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X X X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O . . . . . X . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . O O X . X . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O . O X O . X O . . . . . . O . . | $$ | . X X O . X O . O , . . . . . , . . . | $$ | . X O X . X . O . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . X O . X B . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X . . . X O X . O . . . . O O . . | $$ | . . X O O . . X O . . . . . X X X O . | $$ | . . O X . . X . . . . . . . . . O X . | $$ | . . O , . O X . . O . . . O X , X . . | $$ | . . . O . O . X . O . . . O . X . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . X O . . . . X . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

But Lee's next move made it so that the capturing race worked, and black couldn't respond:

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$ $$ --------------------------------------- $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X O . O O O . O . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X O O X X X X , . . . . . , X . . | $$ | . . X O X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X X X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O . . . . . X . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . O O X . X . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O . O X O . X O . . . . . . O . . | $$ | . X X O . X O . O , . . . . . , . . . | $$ | . X O X . X . O . . . W . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . X O . X X . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X . . . X O X . O . . . . O O . . | $$ | . . X O O . . X O . . . . . X X X O . | $$ | . . O X . . X . . . . . . . . . O X . | $$ | . . O , . O X . . O . . . O X , X . . | $$ | . . . O . O . X . O . . . O . X . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . X O . . . . X . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

So Ke Jie compromised and cut, allowing white to capture the marked stones:

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$ $$ --------------------------------------- $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X O . O O O . O . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X O O X X X X , . . . . . , X . . | $$ | . . X O X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X X X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O . . . . . X . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . 1 O O X . X . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O . O X O . X O . . . . . . O . . | $$ | . X X O . X O . O , . . . . . , . . . | $$ | . X O X . X . O . . . O . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . X O . B B 2 . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X . . . X O B . O . . . . O O . . | $$ | . . X O O . . X O . . . . . X X X O . | $$ | . . O X . . X . . . . . . . . . O X . | $$ | . . O , . O X . . O . . . O X , X . . | $$ | . . . O . O . X . O . . . O . X . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . X O . . . . X . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

So I personally think that Lee Sedol played well in this area, because it means that it made Ke Jie's move here a bad move:

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$ $$ --------------------------------------- $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X O . O O O . O . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X O O X X X X , . . . . . , X . . | $$ | . . X O X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X X X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O . . . . . X . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . O O X . X . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O . O X O . X O . . . . . . O . . | $$ | . X X O . X O . O , . . . . . , . . . | $$ | . X O X . X . O . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . X O . X B . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X . . . X O X . O . . . . O O . . | $$ | . . X O O . . X O . . . . . X X X O . | $$ | . . O X . . X . . . . . . . . . O X . | $$ | . . O , . O X . . O . . . O X , X . . | $$ | . . . O . O . X . O . . . O . X . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . X O . . . . X . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

I think that here:

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$ $$ --------------------------------------- $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X O . O O O . O . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X O O X X X X , . . . . . , X . . | $$ | . . X O X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X X X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O . . . . . X . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . X O O X . X . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . O . O X O . X O . . . . . . O . . | $$ | . X X O . X O . O , . . . . . , . . . | $$ | . X O X . X . O . . . O . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . X O . X X O . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X . . . X O X . O . . . . O O . . | $$ | . . X O O . . X O . . . . . X X X O . | $$ | . . O X . . X . . . . . . . . . O X . | $$ | . . O , . O X . . O . . . O X , X . . | $$ | . . . O . O . X . O . . . O . X . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . X O . . . . X . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

The game is not bad for Lee Sedol. What happened later in the top right ended up favoring Ke Jie, and he gained a lead. But I don't think that the lead was there for the entire game.

Nonetheless, I agree that Ke Jie is pretty much unstoppable these days. The only reason I comment is that I don't think it was "comfortable" for Ke Jie the entire game.

17th Nongshim Cup

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