I'm just curious about people's perspectives about this. Do you think there is a limit on how strong you can get?

Obviously time is a factor. Most of us probably don't spend more than 5-10 hours a week at the very most on go. But does that just slow down growth, or does reaching the very top require immersion?

Do you think there are factors like "talent," early exposure to the game (like with language), bad habits, or raw intelligence that limit how strong you can get? I have read of some theories of association between chess rating and IQ.

Of course, a lot of people seem to reject the idea of intelligence based on egalitarian ideology - it would be nice if we all had infinite potential - but, aside from how we'd like things to be, do you think there really is such a thing as just natural intelligence or natural Go talent that affects how strong someone can get?

What's your personal limit, assuming you work a few hours a week at it? 3 dan? 6 dan? How do you know if you're capable of getting to near-pro strength (say the equivalent of 9-10 dan amateur, for those rating systems that go up that high?)

I think, the table shown on http://senseis.xmp.net/?RatingHistogramComparisons gives a good impression. For an example, in the EGF you need to be within the top ~15% for 1D (=> 2100 rating).

There is a large gap between what is possible and what actually happens.

I recommend looking at EdLee's classic thread So.

Yeah, I love that thread. But I'm wondering if there isn't such a large gap, and it isn't really possible for most people to become that strong. Or are you saying people just give up on studying?

It doesn't matter what I say. It's more important how the people who set these goals explain it to themselves. A number of them will say something the effect of "life got in the way," or, if they make a Freudian typo, "wife got in the way." This conveniently settles the cognitive dissonance between "I am smart" and "I suck at go."

Look at the statistics on long-term weight loss. It's truly miserable. Do we then say that most people who are obese simply do not have the potential to lose weight? It is a lost cause? It would be interesting to see the numbers, but I wouldn't be surprised if people who have lost 30 lbs. or more (that they needed to lose) and kept it off for 10 years or more are rarer than 7 dans.

When I was a raw beginner, I thought it was impossible for me to make 5k. I played some 5k players and thought they were absurdly strong. When I finally became 5k myself, some years ago, I realized that 5k is pathetically weak. When Cornel Burzo became 7d on IGS I asked him if he felt stronger. He said, "I am strong enough to know that 7d is crap." At around that time he also felt there was not much he could do to improve, though he actually did.

For me, I once thought a lifetime achievement would be to play in the Strong Player's room at a U.S. Go Congress. There some Congresses in the past where I think you could even make it in as an AGA 4d if you were lucky enough to be paired with with a 5d. Now, the bar is 7d and I believe this goal is impossible unless they change the rules again.

Today I don't know if I can get even a single stone stronger. (In fact, I have never known this.) If I can improve my reading ability, no problem. If I cannot, problem. Recently I have come to reflect on my games and realize there are things I am denying, though. Some low-hanging fruit that perhaps could add up to a stone even with no reading improvement. I also suspect that I read incorrectly, that the mental process is, in fact, wrong for anything above my level.

One reason it's hard to improve is that no one can see what's going on in your head. Imagine a golf player complaining that they haven't improved their handicap in years. They may be given advice such as "play more golf" or "watch these videos" or "talk to this pro" and then they say they have already done all those things. Later you get some magic glasses and realize that this player has been playing golf with a boomerang instead of a golf club all this time, and you realize there is a way to help. Without the magic glasses, no one will know about the boomerang and keep giving the same old, ineffective advice.

So it's possible I'm golfing with a boomerang. How would I know?

FWIW -- not much -- my guess is that an adult with average talent for the game, but with a good teacher and dedication can reach KGS shodan within 10 years.

_________________
The Adkins Principle:
At some point, doesn't thinking have to go on?
— Winona Adkins

Visualize whirled peas.

Everything with love. Stay safe.

I read the question differently...

I think most people will become that top of the bell curve that is somewhere between 5k and 1d.

Only you can answer the question as to how strong you're able to become.

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be immersed

clearly you're posting on reddit and here.

i put a response up there but i'll put an abridged version up here.

Most people will never become a dan.
At most some of those might become 1d.
With a lot of work, maybe 3d.
Afterwards the ceiling is 6d.

The simple evidence is provided by the people who show up to Go Congress and how often the people distribution "changes".

The moment someone makes the excuse, "hard work got in the way"-- One strong player has arrived.

So that we don't feel too bad, I've even heard pros set goals in this fashion-- it may not make one inherently weaker to do so-- but it's possible that the excuse for failing to reach a goal may have an effect on the pursuance of future goals. One technique could be to imagine what your excuse would be in front of a crowd of 100,000 people in the event that you didn't make the goal:

"Erm, Go is really hard"

edit: and seek to correct it before that happens;

"TV got in the way"
"Maybe I should spent less time watching TV"

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On Go proverbs:
"A fine Gotation is a diamond in the hand of a dan of wit and a pebble in the hand of a kyu" —Joseph Raux misquoted.

I didn't address this part of the question, but I think this makes the question much more interesting than the usual "well, if I quit my job, sell all my stuff and move to China..." hypothetical.

Though I have no proof, I suspect there is a threshold effort below which there is no progress. I think Uberdude said somewhere that no one who does fewer than 100 tsumego a day should complain about being stuck. I suppose that depends on the person and the tsumego. The horn player Philip Farkas in "The Art of Brass Playing" says that it pretty much takes an hour a day just to maintain your current skill, but any improvement takes more and that at some point in one's career a sustained period of intense practice much beyond that is required.

Writer Timothy Ferris talks about a "minimum effective dose." At this dose, you get improvement, but at much more than that it's diminishing returns or even self-destructive. For example, at some point one might play and study go so much that it is not possible to get enough sleep, which might result in getting worse, erasing all the benefits of practice.

So rather than setting a strength goal, I might instead take care of some of the low-hanging fruit and then try to determine what the "minimum effective dose" is for me. If I find it at all, I'll be thrilled.

From what I understand, the research shows that it is basically impossible to lose weight and keep it off through sheer willpower. Many people try and they lose weight but gain it right back (and then some). So, yes. we do say it's a lost cause, which is why there are innovations like gastric bypass and the new Full Sense Device.

I don't think the same holds true for putting in a consistent effort at a hobby, though. Many people consistently play go, golf, bridge, or whatever regularly for years. The question is whether or not they can improve.




I'm confused at this "I may not be able to improve anymore" mentality. Where does that come from? Why would anyone feel like they can't get any stronger? Every game makes you a little bit stronger although each additional stone is harder and harder to get. What about very small improvements on the order of 0.01 stone?



Well isn't the equivalent of the "magic glasses" taking lessons with a pro and talking through your thinking process? That way the pro can look at what you're thinking and see if you're doing something completely wrong.

That 6d comment was sarcastic.

Saying it is a lost cause is option #1.

Option #2 is doing something different than those people that have failed.

Whether you are actually willing to do option #2 is a different story.

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be immersed

just to fly the flag for weight loss - I lost 2 stone a couple of years ago and have not put it all back on (just 1/2 a stone) - I'm not even that heavy. Defeatist attitudes just aren't helpful but for weight loss you need to change your habits long term.

As for Go? I've always thought Shodan was possible for everyone if they have the focus and interest and put in the time required (I hope so anyway). Whether 'most people' lack those qualities I can't say.

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I am John. John-I-Am.

which 6d comment?

I'm assuming this was a list of people's real goals.

You'd think. And it is that way, a little bit. There are some confounding factors, as the saying goes. The first is that some pros don't care what you think. They have little patience listening your weak explanations of your weak moves. I think John Fairbairn has made a case for why that might be the situation at least for Asian pros. That's probably solvable by either finding the right teacher or being the right student. Another factor is harder to tackle. It may even at the level of qualia. At that level, I would assume everyone is using a boomerang. How could it be otherwise? So I wouldn't think to ask the right question.

Glad you're still with us.

Congratulations on your weight loss.

I've also experienced some recent success in that area (around 40 pounds, now), which is one of the reasons I've commented a few times on this topic. When I was first trying to lose weight, and started eating just salad at work, one of my coworkers told me that it's not really going to work. He said that I can't maintain a diet of just salad. Furthermore, people that lose weight fast like this by eating just a small amount are known to bounce back and gain the weight again, often ending up heavier than when they started. If I really wanted success, I should still eat normally, and just lose a couple pounds a year. I distinctly remember my thoughts when he told me this. First, I'd heard this story before. And second, I've tried losing weight slowly and reasonably - but it never worked. And I'd gained a lot of weight for the past few years.

So I thought to myself, "You know what? He might be right... But I don't care. ***k it. I'm going to go all out anyway."

So I've continued to eat salad at work - usually only about half of a serving. And I've been exercising a lot. And it's kept up for a few months now. And I see results. Will I fail like my coworker said, and gain all my weight back? Maybe. I don't know. But by telling myself to ignore the negative advice, I've been more successful with my weight than I have been in several years.

I might be wrong. But that possibility won't stop me from trying to be right.

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be immersed