Ke Jie vs Cho U game is quite interesting. When they fight at the right side, Cho U first played a nice first-line connecting tesuji to save his stones. But Ke Jie returned with a first-line tesuji, eventually creating a ko fight there.

Iyama probably wouldn't make it out of the preliminaries. No point in trying.

First of all, I don't think the Ing Cup has a preliminary with players from multiple countries, they assign some number of seats to various countries (used to be 1 each for Europe/North America, this time it was 2 which I approve of even though we are obviously no-hopers) and those countries (maybe with input from Ing) then choose players as they see fit, usually through a combination of nomination of top players and a preliminary tournament (see http://igokisen.web.fc2.com/wr/ig.html, e.g. from Korea Park Junghwan, Lee Sedol, Park Yeonghun, Kim Jiseok, Na Hyun were seeded and Kang Dongyun and Won Sungjin qualified from 8 players through the preliminary). So Iyama would obviously by nominated as the unquestionably top Japanese player, and could win through a qualifier against Japanese if he needed.
But even if they did have a combined nations preliminary, he would almost certainly qualify unless he faced a world top 10 or 20 player in which case a loss wouldn't be a huge upset, but neither is a win (but facing such players is unlikely as they are seeded, as he would be). Whilst I agree the #5 spot on goratings.org is likely too generous and inaccurate with the paucity of international games, he's probably in the world top 20. He recently beat rising Chinese player Huang Yunsong 4p (#17 on goratings, he just won his 1st round Ing Cup game) in the China-Japan Agon Cup. And a few years ago he beat both Lee Sedol and Gu Li in that 3-way exhibition match (though Lee Sedol beat him recently in the Nongshim cup).

I merely stated an opinion that Iyama wouldn't make it far in the ING cup should he choose to grace us with his presence. I fail to see how this opinion of mine is controversial. Iyama is certainly strong... by Japanese standards. He's the top koi in the small koi pond. But there is a big ocean out there with sharks.

It's good that Iyama has beaten some top players in lightening games, but ING time control is rather different, isn't it? Besides, there is no point for Iyama to try when he's comfortably making lots of money at home. And I think he should stay there.

Maybe by preliminaries you actually meant the early rounds of the main tournament, which are currently underway?

2-1 against Park Junghwan
1-1 against Park Yeonghun
0-1 against Ke Jie
2-4 against Lee Sedol
1-0 against Mi Yuting
1-1 against Zhou Ruiyang
0-1 against Lian Xiao

Fun fact: he's 7-9 against the top ten in the world. You can argue there are better comparisons (it looks worse if you expand the group to the top 20: viewtopic.php?f=13&t=12179&p=195477&hilit=iyama+top+20#p195477), but your opinion is unreasonable.

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Occupy Babel!

Yes, that's precisely what I meant. Iyama wouldn't make it out of the early rounds of the ING tournament. I think there are a dozen Chinese and Korean players stronger than Iyama who are participating, so Iyama's chances are rather slim.

It's best that Iyama stayed home and defended his seven titles while winning substantial purses.

So, according to the data you compiled (as seen in the link you kindly provided), Iyama's record against top 20 players stands at 11 wins and 21 losses, a win rate of 34%. I don't see that as proving my opinion as unreasonable. In fact, I would argue the opposite: my opinion actually overestimates Iyama's chances.

By the way, just to be clear, my opinion is that Iyama wouldn't make it out of the early rounds should he choose to participate in the ING Cup.

Ah well, in that case my opinion on Iyama's chances is probably only slightly more optimistic than yours. I think exiting in the first or second round would be disappointing, but losing in the 3rd (i.e. position 5-8) about par.

To be fair, I believe Iyama's strength has improved in the past few years. So he might last longer.

But Korean and Chinese pros are much more experienced at playing in these international tournaments. So all in all, it's a wash.

I'm curious as to how much stronger Iyama can become. I think he's got some distance to go before reaching his ceiling, but to do that, he needs tougher competition, and that can't be found in Japan.

So, who do we think will win? I don't think my prediction of Ke Jie will be uncommon!

Ke Jie is strong, but the margin of his superiority is perhaps not so large that the title is his to lose. Or am I underestimating the Ke's strength?

This is a very good question. Always playing those who are considerably weaker than yourself is probably not going to help you improve.

The first two statements seem to conflict with the third. Is it reasonable to think that you believe the third, and the others were just mini-trolling?

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- Brady
Want to see videos of low-dan mistakes and what to learn from them? Brady's Blunders

None of the Western players got past move 160 before resigning. I didn't expect them to win, but I was hoping they could put up a little better fight. Still, it's exciting to see AGA and EGA pros being included in top international competition. The only way they'll get better is by playing high level opponents.

Kim Jiseok vs Mi Yuting seems to be the premier pairing in the second round, though there are some other good match-ups as well. Which one most interests you? The GoStyle web app (results to be taken with a grain of salt, of course) recently told me I have a style similar to Hane Naoki, so I'm going to use that as an excuse to pay attention to his game with Tang Weixing.

As for predictions, I'll also stick with Ke Jie. He's certainly not a lock in a single elimination tournament, but I think he'll have at least a slight advantage over everyone he faces.

Maybe Lee Sedol's encounter with AlphaGo will have strengthened him? I'd like to see him beat Ke Jie for a change.

_________________
- Brady
Want to see videos of low-dan mistakes and what to learn from them? Brady's Blunders

Well, there's some fuzziness about what you're saying. "Probably wouldn't get out of the first two rounds" is, if read literally, not actually a significant prediction.

To probably get out of the first two rounds, you need to average better than 70% winning chance against your opponents in the first two rounds. Easy enough if you're a) Ke Jie, or b) have some luck with the pairings (if you draw NA/EU, or maybe Taiwan). Hard otherwise. So literally speaking, my basic prediction for almost all the players is "they probably won't make it out of the first two rounds" (though of course, someone has to win). If that's all you mean, sure, you're right. Iyama probably wouldn't[0] make it out of the first two, but neither would Kim Jiseok, Tuo Jiaxi, or lots of other players. It's a tough field: it includes the worlds' 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 6th, 7th, 9th, 10th, 11th, and 12th(human) players plus other good players.

So, if you mean, "statistically speaking, it is more likely that Iyama would not win two straight games" that's true, and we have no dispute.

If you mean Iyama can't compete against the players here, which I read as the spirit of your original posts, then I don't see any reason for it. Look carefully at the results I posted in the other thread. He was quite often the underdog in games he lost, and his results look a lot worse when you include the oldest games, which makes sense, since he got much better over the course of his career.

You can argue whether he should really be 5th (as per goratings), 10th, 20th...but I don't think you can make a contention that he's not competitive with the field in the Ing Cup.

[0] Read this counterfactually, I'm ignoring the fact that we know the results of the first round.

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Occupy Babel!

Let me clarify my remarks, which are logically consistent and in my view hardly controversial: there is little incentive for Iyama to participate in the ING Cup or most other international tournaments because 1) his playing strength is simply not competitive for him to get far, and 2) the financial incentive isn't there for Iyama, considering his earnings in Japan (against a much weaker competition) dwarfs what he could potentially earn internationally (against a much tougher field).

Therefore, Iyama should stay home.

That said, if he truly loves the game and wants to discover his true ceiling, he should play more international tournaments. But no one will fault Iyama if he simply takes the safer and much more profitable route.

Neither is that of any other player. The KO format of international tournaments is just less attractive than the title-defender matches in Japan. In a one-on-one match, he is the odds on favourite against any other Japanese player. In a 5 round K.O. like the Ing Cup, he's got a 5-10% chance to win it, just like any other top 10 player. That, combined with the relatively high prize money in Japan, makes Japanese titles way more attractive financially.

I think you are reading too much into my comments. Please re-read my comments again. What precisely are you objecting to? I don't appreciate your erecting a straw man.