LeelaZero yose evaluation

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Tryss
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LeelaZero yose evaluation

Post by Tryss »

I reviewed one of my game with lizzie when I found an interesting situation :

Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$ White to play
$$ ---------------------------------------
$$ | . . . . . O X . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . X X X . X O . O X . . . . O . . |
$$ | . . X X O O X X O O X X . . . X O . . |
$$ | . X . O . . O O O , . . . X . X . O . |
$$ | . X O . . O . X X X . X . . . . X O . |
$$ | . . X O . . . . . . X O . X . . X O . |
$$ | X . X O . . . O . O O . O . . X O O . |
$$ | . X O . . . . . . . . . . O . X O O X |
$$ | O X O . . O . . . O . . . . . X O X . |
$$ | . O O X . X O O . , . . O O . X X . . |
$$ | . . . . . X X O . X . X X X . . . X . |
$$ | . . O O . . . X X . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . O X O . O X . . . . . . . . . . X . |
$$ | . O X X O . . . . . . . X X . X X O . |
$$ | . O X . . . . O . O . . . O . . O . O |
$$ | . a X b O O O X O , . X X . . O . O . |
$$ | . X O X X X X X X O . O O O . . . . . |
$$ | . X O . . . . . X O . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ---------------------------------------[/go]


Try to guess how LZ evaluate a and b. What is better and by how much (in winrate)?

LZ prefer a

If White play a, LZ gives Black
3-4% chance to win


If white play b, LZ gives Black
40-50% chance to win (the exact percentage is very variable and change fast with playout)



What's interesting is that this gives you by how many points LZ think White is ahead.
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sorin
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Re: LeelaZero yose evaluation

Post by sorin »

How do you translate the winrate information into points? I am not sure there is a way to do it, since the winrate is about the confidence in the win/loss binary outcome, not about by how many points it would win or lose.
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Tryss
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Re: LeelaZero yose evaluation

Post by Tryss »

Usually you can't. But here everything is just yose.


If white play a), LZ think white will win with near certainty (<5% winrate)

If white play b), LZ think both players are nearly equals and basically a tossup.

The only difference between both options is something like 5 points :

Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$W White play a
$$ ---------------------------------------
$$ | . . . . . O X . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . X X X . X O . O X . . . . O . . |
$$ | . . X X O O X X O O X X . . . X O . . |
$$ | . X . O . . O O O , . . . X . X . O . |
$$ | . X O . . O . X X X . X . . . . X O . |
$$ | . . X O . . . . . . X O . X . . X O . |
$$ | X . X O . . . O . O O . O . . X O O . |
$$ | . X O . . . . . . . . . . O . X O O X |
$$ | O X O . . O . . . O . . . . . X O X . |
$$ | . O O X . X O O . , . . O O . X X . . |
$$ | . . . . . X X O . X . X X X . . . X . |
$$ | . . O O . . . X X . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . O X O . O X . . . . . . . . . . X . |
$$ | . O X X O . . . . . . . X X . X X O . |
$$ | . O X . . . . O . O . . . O . . O . O |
$$ | . 1 X 2 O O O X O , . X X . . O . O . |
$$ | 5 X O X X X X X X O . O O O . . . . . |
$$ | 3 X O 4 . . . . X O . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . 6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ---------------------------------------[/go]


Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$W White play b
$$ ---------------------------------------
$$ | . . . . . O X . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . X X X . X O . O X . . . . O . . |
$$ | . . X X O O X X O O X X . . . X O . . |
$$ | . X . O . . O O O , . . . X . X . O . |
$$ | . X O . . O . X X X . X . . . . X O . |
$$ | . . X O . . . . . . X O . X . . X O . |
$$ | X . X O . . . O . O O . O . . X O O . |
$$ | . X O . . . . . . . . . . O . X O O X |
$$ | O X O . . O . . . O . . . . . X O X . |
$$ | . O O X . X O O . , . . O O . X X . . |
$$ | . . . . . X X O . X . X X X . . . X . |
$$ | . . O O . . . X X . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . O X O . O X . . . . . . . . . . X . |
$$ | . O X X O . . . . . . . X X . X X O . |
$$ | M O X . . . . O . O . . . O . . O . O |
$$ | M 2 X 1 O O O X O , . X X . . O . O . |
$$ | . X O X X X X X X O . O O O . . . . . |
$$ | . X O . . . . . X O . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ---------------------------------------[/go]



If I'm unconditionnally losing, but with 5 more points we're even, that means that I'm 5 points behind. I repeat, this is pure yose, so the remaining plays are mostly independant and there is no strategic consideration.

After that, the winrate swing were huge by just playing suboptimal yose
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