tapir wrote:I believe the ideal of no false positives is really unhealthy. It almost guarantees there will be a lot of false negatives (i.e. only a few cheaters are caught). Since so few are caught, they receive the whole ire of the community and likely exemplary (harsh) treatment. Since the treatment is so harsh, the pressure that false positives are avoided increases further. The whole control regime also ends up expensive and invasive. But since everyone knows most get away with cheating this completely undermines trust, increases pressure to cheat yourself (think cycling) despite having an expensive and invasive control system in place.
If people cheat on an online server in casual play, even if the games are rated, I am afraid that not much will be done, either in cheat detection or punishment, because nobody cares that much. Chess players, please correct me if I am wrong, but my impression is that that is pretty much the case now with casual online chess games, even though cheating detection using engines is quite well developed in chess.
However, I doubt if lessening the punishment for online cheating in tournaments, such as simply by forfeiting a single game, would be acceptable by the community. True, if we accepted a number of false positive results, so that people were punished because they were probably cheating, then that punishment would probably lessen. But that could also lead to long standing enmity between those who believed that a person cheated in a particular game and those who believed that he was unjustly convicted. Also, having, say, three or four games per tournament forfeited because of suspicions of cheating would be disruptive of tournament play itself. Honest players might fear playing too well, lest they lose a game because they are accused of cheating.
I would much prefer unsound evidence (not too unsound, but the 98% in the case), occasional false positives and lenient punishment, that keeps the control systems simple and overall trust (we catch most cheaters + few innocents) higher.
IMX, accusations of wrongdoing (cheating included, OC) do not improve overall trust. To the contrary, they erode it. Accepting more false positives would lead to more accusations, simply because they would be more likely to work.
As for the 98% matching evidence, you must understand that matching one of a bot's top three choices was chosen in order to generate impressive matching numbers, not through any theory of how a player might have cheated. (This motive may have been unconscious.) And restricting the possible matches to the fifty moves between moves 51 - 100 is also suspicious. In addition, it is confirmatory evidence instead of disconfirmatory evidence. IOW, it is not just unsound, it is crap.