Dusk Eagle wrote:If we want to determine what the win rate would be at 4.5 or 5.5 komi, I think the only valid way would be to generate a large sample of games played at 4.5 or 5.5 komi.
Here are some numbers from DGS (sample of ca. 83.000 finished 9x9 games) with counts, percentages of Black-win (BWin) and White-win (WWin) and Jigo (BWin & WWin are shown without Jigo; add half of Jigo-percentage if you want) for a variety of Komi. Time-Outs are not included and each game has at least 10 moves.
Code: Select all
| Komi | CNT | BWin | WWin | Jigo |
+------+-------+---------+---------+--------+
| -6.5 | 342 | 45.0292 | 54.9708 | 0.0000 |
| -6.0 | 418 | 50.2392 | 48.3254 | 1.4354 |
| -5.5 | 467 | 45.8244 | 54.1756 | 0.0000 |
| -5.0 | 486 | 51.2346 | 47.1193 | 1.6461 |
| -4.5 | 578 | 51.0381 | 48.9619 | 0.0000 |
| -4.0 | 547 | 49.5430 | 47.8976 | 2.5594 |
| -3.5 | 630 | 49.8413 | 50.1587 | 0.0000 |
| -3.0 | 586 | 46.0751 | 51.3652 | 2.5597 |
| -2.5 | 627 | 45.9330 | 54.0670 | 0.0000 |
| -2.0 | 696 | 48.9943 | 48.7069 | 2.2989 |
| -1.5 | 668 | 50.7485 | 49.2515 | 0.0000 |
| -1.0 | 706 | 44.3343 | 52.9745 | 2.6912 |
| -0.5 | 721 | 48.1276 | 51.8724 | 0.0000 |
| 0.0 | 4305 | 47.4564 | 50.8711 | 1.6725 |
| 0.5 | 17091 | 40.2785 | 59.7215 | 0.0000 |
| 1.0 | 868 | 42.0507 | 55.2995 | 2.6498 |
| 1.5 | 1192 | 49.6644 | 50.3356 | 0.0000 |
| 2.0 | 953 | 42.2875 | 54.4596 | 3.2529 |
| 2.5 | 1393 | 48.1694 | 51.8306 | 0.0000 |
| 3.0 | 1016 | 44.7835 | 52.4606 | 2.7559 |
| 3.5 | 2132 | 50.0469 | 49.9531 | 0.0000 |
| 4.0 | 1195 | 45.1046 | 52.7197 | 2.1757 |
| 4.5 | 1735 | 47.0317 | 52.9683 | 0.0000 |
| 5.0 | 1487 | 45.9314 | 51.3786 | 2.6900 |
| 5.5 | 2516 | 48.6089 | 51.3911 | 0.0000 |
| 6.0 | 1589 | 47.8918 | 50.0315 | 2.0768 |
| 6.5 | 28549 | 46.3414 | 53.6586 | 0.0000 |
| 7.0 | 9039 | 46.0892 | 49.2422 | 4.6687 |
| 7.5 | 68 | 48.5294 | 51.4706 | 0.0000 |
+------+-------+---------+---------+--------+
| ALL | 82732 | 45.4419 | 53.6443 | 0.9138 |
The sample requires probably more restrictions as it seems White have a higher winning-percentage almost regardless of used komi