Mark Lee reviewed the game from yesterday. I didn't watch it live since I was mad. According to him, my mistake was in this move:

- Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Bc
$$ ---------------------------------------
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . X . O X O O . . . . . . . . X . . |
$$ | . . X O . O X . . , . . . X X X O X . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . X O O O X . |
$$ | . . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . X . O . O . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . X . O . . . . |
$$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . O X . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O . |
$$ | . X . . . . . . . . . . . . O O O X . |
$$ | X . X X . . . . . . . X O O . . X . X |
$$ | . X O O X . . . . . . X X X O O . X . |
$$ | . O . O . . . . . , . . . O X O . . . |
$$ | . O . O . . . B . O . O . O X X X . . |
$$ | . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ---------------------------------------[/go]
Instead, he said I can just surround from the outside and make a big center shape.
I agree with him up until there. But he also said that white was comfortably winning here:

- Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Bc
$$ ---------------------------------------
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . O X . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . X . O X O O . . . . . . . . X . . |
$$ | . . X O O O X . . , . . . X X X O X . |
$$ | . . . . . X . . . . . . . X O O O X . |
$$ | . . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . X . O . O . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . X . . . . . . . . X . O . . . . |
$$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . O X . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O . |
$$ | . X . . . . . . . . O . . . O O O X . |
$$ | X . X X . . . X . . . B O O . . X . X |
$$ | . X O O X . . X O O . B B B O O . X . |
$$ | . O . O . . . X . , . . . O X O . . . |
$$ | . O . O . . . X O O . O . O X X X . . |
$$ | . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ---------------------------------------[/go]
Since the capture of the marked stones is big. I don't know if I agree with this. First, my own sense of the game is that black is ahead. I believe I have more points, and that's what I thought during the game, too.
Second, I let KataGo churn on this position for a little while. Usually I just skim through to get a rough idea, but even after 20k playouts, it notes black as ahead by 86.3%.
I maintain that my problems came with this sequence:

- Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Bc
$$ ---------------------------------------
$$ | . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . O . . O X . O X O O X . . . . . . . |
$$ | . X X . O X O O O X X . . . . . X . . |
$$ | . . X O O O X . . , X X . X X X O X . |
$$ | . . . . . X . . . . . O . X O O O X . |
$$ | . . X O O O . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . X X O X O . . . . X . O . O . . |
$$ | . . . . . X O . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . X . X O . . . . . X . O . . . . |
$$ | . . . , . . X O O , . . . . O X . O O |
$$ | . . . . . . X X . . . . X . . . . O X |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O X |
$$ | . X . . . . . . . . O O . . O O O X X |
$$ | X . X X . . . X . . . X O O . . X . X |
$$ | . X O O X . . X O O . X X X O O . X . |
$$ | . O . O . . . X . , . . . O X O . . . |
$$ | . O . O . . . X O O . O . O X X X . . |
$$ | . . O . B . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ---------------------------------------[/go]
And then getting cut off like I did in the game. I don't think that white was ahead before cutting me off.
Indeed, before the marked move above, if I let KataGo run up to 20k playouts, it puts black at 94.1%. I think it's safe to say that black was winning here.
So not only did I make a silly blunder that cost me the game, but my friend/reviewer/teacher even thinks I was losing before that blunder. And I have no way to really argue with that since I lost, outside of what KataGo tells me. And it could always be argued that I couldn't play the endgame as well as KataGo, so I could still have lost the game even without the blunder of getting disconnected. If I had won, maybe I could have shown that I was ahead. But as it stands, it just looks like I played poorly from early on.
Given this ambiguity, it makes the analysis of the middle game seem meaningless. All that can definitively matter is the end game result, whether I won or lost. But I lost.
To be fair, if I let KataGo really churn on the point where I tenuki and avoid getting cut:

- Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Bc
$$ ---------------------------------------
$$ | . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . O . . O X . O X O O X . . . . . . . |
$$ | . X X . O X O O O X X . . . . . X . . |
$$ | . . X O O O X . . , X X . X X X O X . |
$$ | . . . . . X . . . O X O . X O O O X . |
$$ | . . X O O O . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . X X O X O . . . . X . O . O . . |
$$ | . . . . . X O . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . X . X O . . . . . X . O . . . . |
$$ | . . . , . . X O O , . . . . O X . O O |
$$ | . . . . . . X X O . . . X . . . . O X |
$$ | . . . . . O . . . . . . . . . . . O X |
$$ | . X . . X X O B . . O O . . O O O X X |
$$ | X . X X X O X X . . . X O O . . X . X |
$$ | . X O O X O . X O O . X X X O O . X . |
$$ | . O . O X O . X . , . . . O X O . . . |
$$ | . O . O O O X X O O . O . O X X X . . |
$$ | . . O . X X X O O . . . O X X . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ---------------------------------------[/go]
Like if I answered, like above, KataGo only has black at 57% after 20k playouts. This confirms my thought that I was ahead at this point in the game, but not by much. The game is still within range for white to win, even without big mistakes by me.
The big plummet in win percentage started with this sequence, as mentioned earlier:

- Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Bc
$$ ---------------------------------------
$$ | . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . O . . O X . O X O O X . . . . . . . |
$$ | . X X . O X O O O X X . . . . . X . . |
$$ | . . X O O O X . . , X X . X X X O X . |
$$ | . . . . . X . . . . . O . X O O O X . |
$$ | . . X O O O . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . X X O X O . . . . X . O . O . . |
$$ | . . . . . X O . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . X . X O . . . . . X . O . . . . |
$$ | . . . , . . X O O , . . . . O X . O O |
$$ | . . . . . . X X . . . . X . . . . O X |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O X |
$$ | . X . . . . . . . . O O . . O O O X X |
$$ | X . X X . . . X . . . X O O . . X . X |
$$ | . X O O X . . X O O . X X X O O . X . |
$$ | . O . O . . . X . , . . . O X O . . . |
$$ | . O . O . . . X O O . O . O X X X . . |
$$ | . . O . B . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ---------------------------------------[/go]
It was still recoverable (KataGo says I'm around 80% here), but the concept led me down to a worse position.
---
So I'm a little less angry now, I guess. Still kind of angry, but less. So what can I learn from this experience?
1.) A careless blunder like this can make me really wonder about what the result of the game would be if I hadn't made the blunder. It's a very high cost.
2.) I had some psychological feeling of arrogance, I think, which led to the blunder. Here:

- Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Bc
$$ ---------------------------------------
$$ | . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . O . . O X . O X O O X . . . . . . . |
$$ | . X X . O X O O O X X . . . . . X . . |
$$ | . . X O O O X . . , X X . X X X O X . |
$$ | . . . . . X . . . O X O . X O O O X . |
$$ | . . X O O O . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . X X O X O . . . . X . O . O . . |
$$ | . . . . . X O . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . X . X O . . . . . X . O . . . . |
$$ | . . . , . . X O O , . . . . O X . O O |
$$ | . . . . . . X X W . . . X . . . . O X |
$$ | . . . . . O . . . . . . . . . . . O X |
$$ | . X . . X X O . . . O O . . O O O X X |
$$ | X . X X X O X X . . . X O O . . X . X |
$$ | . X O O X O . X O O . X X X O O . X . |
$$ | . O . O X O . X . , . . . O X O . . . |
$$ | . O . O O O X X O O . O . O X X X . . |
$$ | . . O . X X X O O . . . O X X . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ---------------------------------------[/go]
White has already played these moves:

- Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Bc
$$ ---------------------------------------
$$ | . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . O . . O X . O X O O X . . . . . . . |
$$ | . X X . O X O O O X X . . . . . X . . |
$$ | . . X O O O X . . , X X . X X X O X . |
$$ | . . . . . X . . . O X O . X O O O X . |
$$ | . . X O O O . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . X X O X O . . . . X . O . O . . |
$$ | . . . . . X O . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . X . X O . . . . . X . O . . . . |
$$ | . . . , . . X O O , . . . . O X . O O |
$$ | . . . . . . X X O . . . X . . . . O X |
$$ | . . . . . W . . . . . . . . . . . O X |
$$ | . X . . X X W . . . O O . . O O O X X |
$$ | X . X X X O X X . . . X O O . . X . X |
$$ | . X O O X O . X O O . X X X O O . X . |
$$ | . O . O X O . X . , . . . O X O . . . |
$$ | . O . O O O X X O O . O . O X X X . . |
$$ | . . O . X X X O O . . . O X X . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ---------------------------------------[/go]
And I read that his attempts here did not work. So my general attitude was: "This guy has already lost the game. And he's screwing around in my territory with moves that don't work.
When he played the bend, I read these sequences in about a second or two:

- Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Bc
$$ ---------------------------------------
$$ | . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . O . . O X . O X O O X . . . . . . . |
$$ | . X X . O X O O O X X . . . . . X . . |
$$ | . . X O O O X . . , X X . X X X O X . |
$$ | . . . . . X . . . O X O . X O O O X . |
$$ | . . X O O O . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . X X O X O . . . . X . O . O . . |
$$ | . . . . . X O . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . X . X O . . . . . X . O . . . . |
$$ | . . . , . . X O O , . . . . O X . O O |
$$ | . . . . . . X X O . . . X . . . . O X |
$$ | . . . . 7 O 6 5 4 . . . . . . . . O X |
$$ | . X . . X X O 2 3 . O O . . O O O X X |
$$ | X . X X X O X X . . . X O O . . X . X |
$$ | . X O O X O . X O O . X X X O O . X . |
$$ | . O . O X O . X . , . . . O X O . . . |
$$ | . O . O O O X X O O . O . O X X X . . |
$$ | . . O . X X X O O . . . O X X . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ---------------------------------------[/go]
and
- Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Bc
$$ ---------------------------------------
$$ | . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . O . . O X . O X O O X . . . . . . . |
$$ | . X X . O X O O O X X . . . . . X . . |
$$ | . . X O O O X . . , X X . X X X O X . |
$$ | . . . . . X . . . O X O . X O O O X . |
$$ | . . X O O O . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . X X O X O . . . . X . O . O . . |
$$ | . . . . . X O . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . X . X O . . . . . X . O . . . . |
$$ | . . . , . . X O O , . . . . O X . O O |
$$ | . . . . . . X X O . . . X . . . . O X |
$$ | . . . . 7 O 6 4 5 . . . . . . . . O X |
$$ | . X . . X X O 2 3 . O O . . O O O X X |
$$ | X . X X X O X X . . . X O O . . X . X |
$$ | . X O O X O . X O O . X X X O O . X . |
$$ | . O . O X O . X . , . . . O X O . . . |
$$ | . O . O O O X X O O . O . O X X X . . |
$$ | . . O . X X X O O . . . O X X . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ---------------------------------------[/go]
After those two quick reads, it confirmed my already biased thought that "This guy is just screwing around with moves that don't work.
In some sense, I was frustrated that he hadn't quit, and wanted to end it. My move was kind of like saying, "You want to just screw around with those local non working moves? Fine. I'll grab this center area and increase my lead!"

- Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Bc
$$ ---------------------------------------
$$ | . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . O . . O X . O X O O X . . . . . . . |
$$ | . X X . O X O O O X X . . . . . X . . |
$$ | . . X O O O X . . , X X . X X X O X . |
$$ | . . . . . X . . . O X O . X O O O X . |
$$ | . . X O O O . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . X X O X O . B . . X . O . O . . |
$$ | . . . . . X O . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . X . X O . . . . . X . O . . . . |
$$ | . . . , . . X O O , . . . . O X . O O |
$$ | . . . . . . X X O . . . X . . . . O X |
$$ | . . . . . O . a . . . . . . . . . O X |
$$ | . X . . X X O . . . O O . . O O O X X |
$$ | X . X X X O X X . . . X O O . . X . X |
$$ | . X O O X O . X O O . X X X O O . X . |
$$ | . O . O X O . X . , . . . O X O . . . |
$$ | . O . O O O X X O O . O . O X X X . . |
$$ | . . O . X X X O O . . . O X X . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ---------------------------------------[/go]
Because of this *feeling*, I missed the move at 'a'. I didn't take the guy seriously. And after playing for a long time and feeling that I had maintained a lead... I was frustrated and wanted to end it.
So I guess it boils down to:
* A little bit of arrogance
* A little bit of impatience
And as a result, back to learning point #1, above, I can only wonder and play with winrates on KataGo to wonder what "would" have happened.
I guess if I consolidate this into a single learning point, I'd say this:
* The game of go is long, and I need to be patient until the result has been absolutely and irreversibly decided. That only happens once the game result has been officially set.
I think this learning point extends beyond blunders. It also applies to areas where I rush to attack my opponent's group, or make an overplay to try to get a 20 point lead. This impatience leads to mistakes. And those mistakes lead to my loss. And my loss leads to this bad feeling I'm having right now.
If transitivity applies, I suppose: impatience leads to this bad feeling I'm having right now.
So let's not be impatient.