Sharp rise in go popularity in Japan

[John Fairbairn]

This year's Leisure White Paper in Japan (27 August 2010) recorded a phenomenal increase in the apparent popularity of both go and shogi in 2009.

From a government census that showed a level of 2.5 million players in 2008, which was the bottom of a continuous downturn over several years, the figure shot up to 6.4 million. This is well above even the heady days of 1994 when the level was 5.6 million (although the method counting has changed in the interim).

The popularity of shogi, as usual, is roughly at twice the level of go, at 13 million in 2009. Shogi may also have benefited from having strong computer playing programs.

The increase is attributed to the internet, naturally enough. As to why there was a sudden increase in 2009, the methodology of the survey may play a factor but I suspect it was because that was the year when many Japanese discovered you could play go online for free - many in Korea, some in USA/Europe. There had been an effective monopoly before then. In addition, computer use in Japan has, perhaps surprisingly, lagged behind many other countries (said in part to be because of kanji input slowed them down, but that bottleneck also appears to have been overcome).

It cannot be said, however, that this surge in popularity is translating into good news for pros or the Nihon Ki-in. They still face the need to tighten belts. The best they can probably hope for is a new star to challenge the Koreans and Chinese.

[fwiffo]

From a government census that showed a level of 2.5 million players in 2008, which was the bottom of a continuous downturn over several years, the figure shot up to 6.4 million...

That's a phenomenal increase, well more than doubling in two years. "Sharp" doesn't quite describe it! Looking at those numbers I would expect to see some sort of methodological change in the survey.

[tapir]

From a government census that showed a level of 2.5 million players in 2008, which was the bottom of a continuous downturn over several years, the figure shot up to 6.4 million...

That's a phenomenal increase, well more than doubling in two years. "Sharp" doesn't quite describe it! Looking at those numbers I would expect to see some sort of methodological change in the survey.

May I ask the obvious question: how did Shogi popularity change between the surveys?

[hyperpape]

Whether they changed their method is a good question. But the factors John is talking about could double the number of players in a few years so long as they set the right standard for playing. If players refers to moderately active players, then the change needn't reflect 4 million people learning the game in a year, just 4 million people going to their computer and playing a few games. I'm sure the number of Japanese who have at one point played go and know the rules is quite a bit higher than 6.5 million.

In that case, the 4 million new players would be very different from the 2.5 million old players in their dedication and level of exposure. Consider the difference between the average American go player in 1990 and 2009.

Of course, I don't know what standard they use.

[kirkmc]

The increase is attributed to the internet, naturally enough. As to why there was a sudden increase in 2009, the methodology of the survey may play a factor but I suspect it was because that was the year when many Japanese discovered you could play go online for free - many in Korea, some in USA/Europe. There had been an effective monopoly before then.

Was it IGS that was a monopoly? I always understood that they were "big in Japan," but were they that big that free servers weren't known?

To be honest, though, I've noticed an increase in Japanese players on KGS in the past year or so.

[palapiku]

IGS is not free?

[Harleqin]

IGS is not free in Japan. It was also for a long time policy to ban anyone who even mentioned that other servers might exist. This may have changed in the meantime, though.

[palapiku]

Wow... I totally misunderstood the nature of IGS this whole time.

If it's primarily a non-free server... how come it's so crappy? Monopolies are bad

[tj86430]

IGS is not free in Japan.

How is that done? I mean, how do they know if someone is from Japan or not? IP-address is not a reliable measure.

[kirkmc]

IGS is not free in Japan.

How is that done? I mean, how do they know if someone is from Japan or not? IP-address is not a reliable measure.

Yes, they are, actually.

[tj86430]

IGS is not free in Japan.

How is that done? I mean, how do they know if someone is from Japan or not? IP-address is not a reliable measure.

Yes, they are, actually.

Please elaborate.

[topazg]

How is that done? I mean, how do they know if someone is from Japan or not? IP-address is not a reliable measure.

Yes, they are, actually.

Please elaborate.

Basically, and simplified for clarity, IP blocks are assigned to countries, whose ISPs assign blocks to residential and commercial use, of which at any point a user connects he will be given one. There are plenty of cases where you can't tell so easily whereabouts the user is precisely (even with trace routes, although you can normally track down the nearest ISP exchange), but I'm not aware of cases where the same IP can source from more than one country.

The main exception as always is proxy-ing, but I suspect there aren't many Japanese IGS players getting their games for free via this method.

[tj86430]

Basically, and simplified for clarity, IP blocks are assigned to countries, whose ISPs assign blocks to residential and commercial use, of which at any point a user connects he will be given one. There are plenty of cases where you can't tell so easily whereabouts the user is precisely (even with trace routes, although you can normally track down the nearest ISP exchange), but I'm not aware of cases where the same IP can source from more than one country.

The main exception as always is proxy-ing, but I suspect there aren't many Japanese IGS players getting their games for free via this method.

Yes, I know that. I thought kirkmc knew a way of finding where out where I am even if I'm using a VPN/proxy/corporate -server.

I just found it curious that someone would charge a fee based on something that is ridiculously easy to circumvent, but perhaps it is not curious at all.

[DrStraw]

I just found it curious that someone would charge a fee based on something that is ridiculously easy to circumvent, but perhaps it is not curious at all.

It is only ridiculously easy if you have the technical know-how to do so. I suspect that vast majority of people wouldn't have a clue how to go about it.

[topazg]

Kirk may know of a way, but I certainly don't.

I suspect 95% of IGS users wouldn't know how to do it, even though it's become so much easier these days, and of the 5% that can, another 90% wouldn't bother. Something in that order anyway. It's just like DRM / piracy prevention stuff. Anyone that knows the scene even slightly is aware of how little effect any DRM schemes have, even some of the latest games such as Settlers 7 with "must be online" on top of other protection systems broken and cracked within a week or two. The thing is, the majority of the game customers are honest purchasers, and of the ones who aren't, only a relatively small fraction are capable of getting themselves a copy that bypasses the restrictions - a market share that is small enough that diminishing returns stops the big corporations from making it any harder for them. It's the 80/20 principle I guess.