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Who do you think will win?
Tromp 3-0 10%  10%  [ 4 ]
Tromp 3-1 15%  15%  [ 6 ]
Tromp 3-2 13%  13%  [ 5 ]
Zen 3-0 13%  13%  [ 5 ]
Zen 3-1 33%  33%  [ 13 ]
Zen 3-2 15%  15%  [ 6 ]
Total votes : 39
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Offline Joaz Banbeck
 Post subject: Re: Rerun of the Tromp-Taylor bet
Post #21 Posted: Thu Jan 12, 2012 3:58 pm 
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flOvermind wrote:
... It's a dual-processor PC, with 6 cores each. That totals 12 cores :P


Ooops, I misread. Thanks. I'm changing my vote to a narrow win for Tromp, probably 3-2.

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Offline Magicwand
 Post subject: Re: Rerun of the Tromp-Taylor bet
Post #22 Posted: Thu Jan 12, 2012 7:17 pm 
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i think i can say for sure that for next 20 years...computer will not beat me.
computer go is improving rapidly but...it gets harder to improve one stone at this point.

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Offline illluck
 Post subject: Re: Rerun of the Tromp-Taylor bet
Post #23 Posted: Thu Jan 12, 2012 7:27 pm 
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Computers can already beat you, I think :p

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Offline speedchase
 Post subject: Re: Rerun of the Tromp-Taylor bet
Post #24 Posted: Thu Jan 12, 2012 7:51 pm 
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maybe at blitz but I have not heard of any computer getting to 4dan when playing with a reasonable time limit.
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Offline Magicwand
 Post subject: Re: Rerun of the Tromp-Taylor bet
Post #25 Posted: Thu Jan 12, 2012 7:51 pm 
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illluck wrote:
Computers can already beat you, I think :p

may be 9x9
not on 19x19

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Offline yoyoma
 Post subject: Re: Rerun of the Tromp-Taylor bet
Post #26 Posted: Thu Jan 12, 2012 8:21 pm 
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speedchase wrote:
maybe at blitz but I have not heard of any computer getting to 4dan when playing with a reasonable time limit.


This whole thread is about a bot (Zen19N) that is 4d playing 20+5x:30, which I consider very reasonable. :)

Zen19S also plays 20+5x:30 and is a stronger 4d (graph is 5d today but that is due to drift, it hasn't played since September). Zen19S uses a bigger/faster computer than Zen19N.
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Offline hyperpape
 Post subject: Re: Rerun of the Tromp-Taylor bet
Post #27 Posted: Thu Jan 12, 2012 9:08 pm 
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Magicwand wrote:
illluck wrote:
Computers can already beat you, I think :p

may be 9x9
not on 19x19
Definitely on 9x9. They're at professional level there.

On 19x19, with 20 + 5x:30 time limits, Zen plays at 4d on KGS using a cluster of machines. The machines have been getting better by more than one stone a year for four years now.

I have almost zero doubt that a computer will be able to beat you in ten years.

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Offline speedchase
 Post subject: Re: Rerun of the Tromp-Taylor bet
Post #28 Posted: Thu Jan 12, 2012 9:09 pm 
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I was under the impression that the zen bots play 10 second blitz, however I see that you are correct.
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Offline Joaz Banbeck
 Post subject: Re: Rerun of the Tromp-Taylor bet
Post #29 Posted: Thu Jan 12, 2012 11:31 pm 
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Magicwand wrote:
i think i can say for sure that for next 20 years...computer will not beat me.
computer go is improving rapidly but...it gets harder to improve one stone at this point.


In 20 years the top programs running on the best hardware will be able to beat anybody. And if the trend continues, that hardware will be Chinese.

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Offline gogameguru
 Post subject: Re: Rerun of the Tromp-Taylor bet
Post #30 Posted: Thu Jan 12, 2012 11:43 pm 
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We'll see. Zen has to beat Tromp first :).

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Offline speedchase
 Post subject: Re: Rerun of the Tromp-Taylor bet
Post #31 Posted: Fri Jan 13, 2012 7:16 am 
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Joaz Banbeck wrote:
Magicwand wrote:
i think i can say for sure that for next 20 years...computer will not beat me.
computer go is improving rapidly but...it gets harder to improve one stone at this point.


In 20 years the top programs running on the best hardware will be able to beat anybody. And if the trend continues, that hardware will be Chinese.

Is this statement based on a specific article or something, or just your own observations? If its an article of some sort I'd like to read it if you could provide a link.
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Offline Mike Novack
 Post subject: Re: Rerun of the Tromp-Taylor bet
Post #32 Posted: Fri Jan 13, 2012 7:55 am 
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It is hard to predict something like that. Remember that discovering the MCTS approach caused a jump in the playing strength of go playing programs compared to how the best regular AI programs were doing (progress with them had become rather slow).

We don't know but possibly the MCTS approach has a practical limit. Even great advances in crunch power might not help. You need to understand that if the leading cause of not selecting the strongest move comes from "sample size" (the actual probabilty vs the probability computed using the sample) this first improves rapidly as the sample size is really too small and then beyond a certain adequate sample size the improvement slows and slows as the sample size is increased.

A go game involves many moves so if we have a sampling size such that at the 95% confidence level about one in twenty moves won't have been the best choice. Even the 98% confidence level implies making a "mistake" or two in the course of the game. My point is that it can take a gigantic jump in sampling to get from 95% confidence to 98% confidence.

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Offline yoyoma
 Post subject: Re: Rerun of the Tromp-Taylor bet
Post #33 Posted: Fri Jan 13, 2012 5:00 pm 
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Only 1 hour left. Here are the current poll results, voting after the game starts is no fair! :)

Code:
Who do you think will win?
Tromp 3-0 19%   [ 5 ]
Tromp 3-1  7%   [ 2 ]
Tromp 3-2 15%   [ 4 ]
Zen 3-0   15%   [ 4 ]
Zen 3-1   33%   [ 9 ]
Zen 3-2   11%   [ 3 ]

Zen leads the voting 16-11. I voted Tromp 3-2, but I still honestly have no clue, it could go 3-0 either way.
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Offline Phelan
 Post subject: Re: Rerun of the Tromp-Taylor bet
Post #34 Posted: Fri Jan 13, 2012 6:06 pm 
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It starts! And already very interesting at move 11. :)

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Offline badukJr
 Post subject: Re: Rerun of the Tromp-Taylor bet
Post #35 Posted: Fri Jan 13, 2012 7:01 pm 
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The way the game is going, Tromp should probably take stones so it doesn't get boring next games...

Kind of funny that he 'won' the bet playing against a laptop, then only a few months later it looks completely different.
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Offline hyperpape
 Post subject: Re: Rerun of the Tromp-Taylor bet
Post #36 Posted: Fri Jan 13, 2012 8:07 pm 
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Note that while one or two games in the previous challenge were on a laptop, the others were on EC2 instances that were about twice as fast.

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Offline amnal
 Post subject: Re: Rerun of the Tromp-Taylor bet
Post #37 Posted: Fri Jan 13, 2012 8:26 pm 
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And Tromp wins by resignation, congratulations to him.
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Offline speedchase
 Post subject: Re: Rerun of the Tromp-Taylor bet
Post #38 Posted: Fri Jan 13, 2012 8:27 pm 
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Tromp takes the first game by resignation. Chalk one up for Humanity ^^
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Offline hyperpape
 Post subject: Re: Rerun of the Tromp-Taylor bet
Post #39 Posted: Fri Jan 13, 2012 9:10 pm 
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If Tromp wins the whole thing, the next demand will be that he play in some tournaments so that the rest of us can assess his strength.

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Offline Joaz Banbeck
 Post subject: Re: Rerun of the Tromp-Taylor bet
Post #40 Posted: Fri Jan 13, 2012 9:55 pm 
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This is game 1. Sorry if the comments are a bit disjointed. I had to take out a lot to make it fit.


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