$$Wm60 Prisoners 
$$ ----------------------------------------
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . X X X . X . O . . X . . X . . X O . |
$$ | . . O O O O . . . , . . . O X X O . . |
$$ | . O . . . . . . . . . . . . X O . O . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O O . . |
$$ | . O X X . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . O O . . O X . . . . . . . . O X . . |
$$ | . X . X . O X O . . . . . . . . X . . |
$$ | . . . X . X O O . , . . . . . , . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . X . . . . . . . . . X . . |
$$ | . . X . . X . . O . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . X O . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 2 . . |
$$ | . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . . |
$$ | . . . O . . . . . O . . O . . , . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ----------------------------------------

$$ ----------------------------------------
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . X X X . X . O . . X . . X . . X O . |
$$ | . . O O O O . . . , . . . O X X O . . |
$$ | . O . . . . . . . . . . . . X O . O . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O O . . |
$$ | . O X X . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . O O . . O X . . . . . . . . O X . . |
$$ | . X . X . O X O . . . . . . . . X . . |
$$ | . . . X . X O O . , . . . . . , . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . X . . . . . . . . . X . . |
$$ | . . X . . X . . O . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . X O . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 2 . . |
$$ | . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . . |
$$ | . . . O . . . . . O . . O . . , . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ----------------------------------------
- Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Wm60 Prisoners
$$ ----------------------------------------
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . X X X . X . O . . X . . X . . X O . |
$$ | . . O O O O . . . , . . . O X X O . . |
$$ | . O . . . . . . . . . . . . X O . O . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O O . . |
$$ | . O X X . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . O O . . O X . . . . . . . . O X . . |
$$ | . X . X . O X O . . . . . . . . X . . |
$$ | . . . X . X O O . , . . . . . , . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . X . . . . . . . . . X . . |
$$ | . . X . . X . . O . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . X O . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 2 . . |
$$ | . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . . |
$$ | . . . O . . . . . O . . O . . , . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ----------------------------------------[/go]
So, my current feeling is that my winning chances are not good, perhaps 30% or so right now. Ed's played a really great game, and as far as I can feel has made no obvious blunders. He's certainly played a game that defies an AGA 4k rating IMHO.
That said, I'm obvious not giving up just yet. One of the reasons I played to the top like I did was to cut. Unfortunately, the cut is messy, and I don't think it actually works:
This looks relatively promising, albeit complicated, but I do need to watch out for my top group too. Unfortunately, I think White can evade:
Now I think I have a seriously weak group to worry about. I can pull back and let White block, and I do think that's better, but it feels hard to pull off a serious coup here to me. However, look at the following:
This is so close to working, that I have a lot of aji to play with. A move at "a" or "b" could simply make this work. In fact, I'm convinced of it enough that I want to play one the second I get sente again, before looking at the lower left. Assuming White fixes his cut if I do play this way, I need a follow up. So, either I play at "a", take my immediate profit in sente, and then play in the lower left, and count later, or I play at "b", and aim to do some serious damage in the center and leave "a" for later. My gut feeling is "a", as it looks like sente profit, and that's a "good thing" right now. However, it may not be enough. It could be that cutting directly is still best :S
Epic game for me here!
EDIT: That's it, if I get sente, I'm cutting. Let's start some fires.
That said, I'm obvious not giving up just yet. One of the reasons I played to the top like I did was to cut. Unfortunately, the cut is messy, and I don't think it actually works:
$$Wm60 Prisoners 
$$ ----------------------------------------
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . X X X . X 3 O 7 . X . . X . . X O . |
$$ | . . O O O O 2 4 5 , . . . O X X O . . |
$$ | . O . . . . . . 6 9 . . . . X O . O . |
$$ | . . . . . . . 8 . . . . . . . O O . . |
$$ | . O X X . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . O O . . O X . . . . . . . . O X . . |
$$ | . X . X . O X O . . . . . . . . X . . |
$$ | . . . X . X O O . , . . . . . , . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . X . . . . . . . . . X . . |
$$ | . . X . . X . . O . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . X O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . . |
$$ | . . . O . . . . . O . . O . . , . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ----------------------------------------

$$ ----------------------------------------
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . X X X . X 3 O 7 . X . . X . . X O . |
$$ | . . O O O O 2 4 5 , . . . O X X O . . |
$$ | . O . . . . . . 6 9 . . . . X O . O . |
$$ | . . . . . . . 8 . . . . . . . O O . . |
$$ | . O X X . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . O O . . O X . . . . . . . . O X . . |
$$ | . X . X . O X O . . . . . . . . X . . |
$$ | . . . X . X O O . , . . . . . , . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . X . . . . . . . . . X . . |
$$ | . . X . . X . . O . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . X O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . . |
$$ | . . . O . . . . . O . . O . . , . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ----------------------------------------
- Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Wm60 Prisoners
$$ ----------------------------------------
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . X X X . X 3 O 7 . X . . X . . X O . |
$$ | . . O O O O 2 4 5 , . . . O X X O . . |
$$ | . O . . . . . . 6 9 . . . . X O . O . |
$$ | . . . . . . . 8 . . . . . . . O O . . |
$$ | . O X X . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . O O . . O X . . . . . . . . O X . . |
$$ | . X . X . O X O . . . . . . . . X . . |
$$ | . . . X . X O O . , . . . . . , . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . X . . . . . . . . . X . . |
$$ | . . X . . X . . O . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . X O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . . |
$$ | . . . O . . . . . O . . O . . , . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ----------------------------------------[/go]
This looks relatively promising, albeit complicated, but I do need to watch out for my top group too. Unfortunately, I think White can evade:
$$Wm60 Prisoners 
$$ ----------------------------------------
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . X X X . X 5 O . . X . . X . . X O . |
$$ | . . O O O O 2 3 . 7 . . . O X X O . . |
$$ | . O . . . . 4 6 . . . . . . X O . O . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O O . . |
$$ | . O X X . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . O O . . O X . . . . . . . . O X . . |
$$ | . X . X . O X O . . . . . . . . X . . |
$$ | . . . X . X O O . , . . . . . , . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . X . . . . . . . . . X . . |
$$ | . . X . . X . . O . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . X O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . . |
$$ | . . . O . . . . . O . . O . . , . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ----------------------------------------

$$ ----------------------------------------
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . X X X . X 5 O . . X . . X . . X O . |
$$ | . . O O O O 2 3 . 7 . . . O X X O . . |
$$ | . O . . . . 4 6 . . . . . . X O . O . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O O . . |
$$ | . O X X . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . O O . . O X . . . . . . . . O X . . |
$$ | . X . X . O X O . . . . . . . . X . . |
$$ | . . . X . X O O . , . . . . . , . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . X . . . . . . . . . X . . |
$$ | . . X . . X . . O . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . X O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . . |
$$ | . . . O . . . . . O . . O . . , . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ----------------------------------------
- Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Wm60 Prisoners
$$ ----------------------------------------
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . X X X . X 5 O . . X . . X . . X O . |
$$ | . . O O O O 2 3 . 7 . . . O X X O . . |
$$ | . O . . . . 4 6 . . . . . . X O . O . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O O . . |
$$ | . O X X . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . O O . . O X . . . . . . . . O X . . |
$$ | . X . X . O X O . . . . . . . . X . . |
$$ | . . . X . X O O . , . . . . . , . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . X . . . . . . . . . X . . |
$$ | . . X . . X . . O . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . X O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . . |
$$ | . . . O . . . . . O . . O . . , . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ----------------------------------------[/go]
Now I think I have a seriously weak group to worry about. I can pull back and let White block, and I do think that's better, but it feels hard to pull off a serious coup here to me. However, look at the following:
$$Wm60 Prisoners 
$$ ----------------------------------------
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . X X X . X 4 O . . X . . X . . X O . |
$$ | . . O O O O 2 3 . 9 . . . O X X O . . |
$$ | . O . . . 0 5 6 7 . . . . . X O . O . |
$$ | . . . . . . . 8 . . . . . . . O O . . |
$$ | . O X X . O b b . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . O O a . O X b . . . . . . . O X . . |
$$ | . X . X . O X O . . . . . . . . X . . |
$$ | . . . X . X O O . , . . . . . , . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . X . . . . . . . . . X . . |
$$ | . . X . . X . . O . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . X O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . . |
$$ | . . . O . . . . . O . . O . . , . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ----------------------------------------

$$ ----------------------------------------
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . X X X . X 4 O . . X . . X . . X O . |
$$ | . . O O O O 2 3 . 9 . . . O X X O . . |
$$ | . O . . . 0 5 6 7 . . . . . X O . O . |
$$ | . . . . . . . 8 . . . . . . . O O . . |
$$ | . O X X . O b b . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . O O a . O X b . . . . . . . O X . . |
$$ | . X . X . O X O . . . . . . . . X . . |
$$ | . . . X . X O O . , . . . . . , . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . X . . . . . . . . . X . . |
$$ | . . X . . X . . O . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . X O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . . |
$$ | . . . O . . . . . O . . O . . , . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ----------------------------------------
- Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Wm60 Prisoners
$$ ----------------------------------------
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . X X X . X 4 O . . X . . X . . X O . |
$$ | . . O O O O 2 3 . 9 . . . O X X O . . |
$$ | . O . . . 0 5 6 7 . . . . . X O . O . |
$$ | . . . . . . . 8 . . . . . . . O O . . |
$$ | . O X X . O b b . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . O O a . O X b . . . . . . . O X . . |
$$ | . X . X . O X O . . . . . . . . X . . |
$$ | . . . X . X O O . , . . . . . , . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . X . . . . . . . . . X . . |
$$ | . . X . . X . . O . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . X O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . . |
$$ | . . . O . . . . . O . . O . . , . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ----------------------------------------[/go]
This is so close to working, that I have a lot of aji to play with. A move at "a" or "b" could simply make this work. In fact, I'm convinced of it enough that I want to play one the second I get sente again, before looking at the lower left. Assuming White fixes his cut if I do play this way, I need a follow up. So, either I play at "a", take my immediate profit in sente, and then play in the lower left, and count later, or I play at "b", and aim to do some serious damage in the center and leave "a" for later. My gut feeling is "a", as it looks like sente profit, and that's a "good thing" right now. However, it may not be enough. It could be that cutting directly is still best :S
Epic game for me here!
EDIT: That's it, if I get sente, I'm cutting. Let's start some fires.
, then after B (a) or (b), it doesn't look very promising for W:
...
has been sitting there for a long time.