Re: modern orthodoxy in the opening
Posted: Mon Jul 11, 2011 5:15 am
John Fairbairn wrote:...
No, there aren't. Unless you want to be silly and argue about how long is a piece of string. If you take the year 2000 as a benchmark, Japan had 31 events with time limits of 8, 5 or 4 hours ("event" means preliminaries in some cases as they sometimes had different limits).
They had 4 events of 1,2 or 3 hours. They had 10 events of 10 minutes or less. Common sense tells us that 3 hours or less should therefore be considered "short". Korea also more or less matched that sort of distribution at that time.
The current situation is that Korea has a maximum of 3 hours. But only three events open to men have this limit. This is not "many" and as we've just seen it's on the short side anyway. Eleven events have even shorter limits. Five of them (if three is "many", that's "very many") are Mickey Mouse 10 minute affairs or less. Even as (supposedly) prestigious an event as a world championship (the BC Card Cup) has only 1.5 hours. ...
When we are talking about games from 1.5 to 3 hours, I don't think that it's fair to say that they are necessarily riddled with mistakes due to the time. This amount of time could still be perceived to be quite long. Pros spend a lot of time training offline. It's not during the game that most of your learning comes from. It's from the training that you spend away from the tournament.
We cannot conclude, of course, that Japanese players are stronger just because they play more slowly. It's genuinely hard to say who is best. However, I am rather fond of relying on professional opinion. ...
I am skeptical that professionals have a unanimous opinion of who is stronger.
It is not just a question of less time to think in each game. As I have suggested above, the shorter time limits have brought with them a change of style that is best suited to shorter time limits. Japanese players especially can hardly be expected to change styles in the space of a single international event, and it would be catastrophic for their main domestic careers to change styles permanently. Also, there are now no events (none!) where Chinese and Korean players get to play the top Japanese at 4 hours or more. We have to conclude, therefore, that lack of Japanese success in international events, wounding though it is to national pride, is not really a fair measure of relative strengths.
I disagree.
Playing games in international tournaments is the only real measurement that we have of relative strength of players. How can we measure the relative strength of two players without having them play one another? The result of a game is the only thing that you can have. Until go is solved, anything else is just speculation.
To your point, let's assume that Japanese players get more practice having longer time limits, and don't practice as much with the same time limits used internationally, and also that (for the sake of argument) they have a low success rate at international events.
From this we can conclude that, under the time settings at international events, the result of the game is the best measurement we have to determine the relative strength of players. A player played, and he won. Why shouldn't he get credit for it?
We can make arguments saying that, "This pro didn't practice under those time settings, so his strength is not portrayed". Well, the game that was played was a display of that pro's strength under the given time settings. Maybe he can play better under different time settings. Maybe not. The only way we can know is if we put forth a match between the two players under the new time settings.
Let's say that I lose a game online. Let's say that, whenever I practice in real life, I use pink stones instead of black ones. I can say that my opponent had an advantage because he would have lost against me were we using pink stones.
The only way to validate this statement is to actually play a game with pink stones. The only data we have are the results of games.
You can ignore the real game data we have if you'd like, but that's not very objective, IMHO.