Using my Winter 2010 copy of GoGoD, I analyzed the first four moves of games played in 2010. (GoGoD Winter 2010 goes up to 4 December 2010). This is 2244 games.
In selecting popular sequences of the first 4 moves, I eliminated any that appear in less than 1% of the games. The 18 openings represent 74% of all games in that set. The top 6 openings account for 48% of all games, and they all start with black's first move on the 4-4 point. The top 3 account for 1/3 of all games.
Some properties of popular modern openings:
1. With one exception (R16 D16 Q3 P17, which has an early approach like in Shusaku style) every opening has both players playing in empty corners for the first 4 moves.
2. With one exception (the same R16 D16 Q3 P17), all of the first 4 moves are on either the 4-4 or the 3-4.
3. Some popular variants of the past, such as nirensei (parallel 4-4) or mukai komuku (opposing parallel 3-4) for black, simply didn't make the cut.
The following is the breakdown.
Q16 D16 R4 D3 285
Q16 D16 Q3 D4 242
Q16 D16 R4 D4 211
Q16 D4 R4 D17 132
Q16 D16 Q3 D3 100
Q16 D4 Q3 D16 99
R16 D16 Q3 D4 99
Q16 D4 R4 D16 80
Q16 D4 Q3 D17 70
R16 D16 Q4 D4 62
R16 Q4 D17 C4 45
R16 D16 Q4 D3 42
R16 D17 Q3 D4 41
R16 D17 Q4 D4 38
Q16 D16 Q3 C4 36
R16 D16 Q3 P17 28
R16 D17 D3 Q4 24
R16 Q4 D17 D4 24
I will post more thoughts later.
modern orthodoxy in the opening
-
Joaz Banbeck
- Judan
- Posts: 5546
- Joined: Sun Dec 06, 2009 11:30 am
- Rank: 1D AGA
- GD Posts: 1512
- Kaya handle: Test
- Location: Banbeck Vale
- Has thanked: 1080 times
- Been thanked: 1434 times
Re: modern orthodoxy in the opening
Help make L19 more organized. Make an index: https://lifein19x19.com/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=5207
-
snorri
- Lives in sente
- Posts: 706
- Joined: Fri Jul 02, 2010 8:15 am
- GD Posts: 846
- Has thanked: 252 times
- Been thanked: 251 times
Re: modern orthodoxy in the opening
Reviewing the patterns I listed in my first post can be an exercise. Let's start with the top 3.
White prevents mini-chinese with
.
Black may next aim for a chinese or variant near 'a'.
will allow an approach at 'a'.
In each of these cases, we see white
which also allows black to play a diagonal opening. Interestingly, in none of the top 18 does black actually take white up on this offer if is on the 4-4 point. In fact there is only one true diagonal opening left, and with only 24 hits, it was close to missing the 1% cut:
So are we witnessing the death of diagonal openings? It is looking like a trend.
White prevents mini-chinese with
.Black may next aim for a chinese or variant near 'a'.
will allow an approach at 'a'.In each of these cases, we see white
which also allows black to play a diagonal opening. Interestingly, in none of the top 18 does black actually take white up on this offer if is on the 4-4 point. In fact there is only one true diagonal opening left, and with only 24 hits, it was close to missing the 1% cut:So are we witnessing the death of diagonal openings? It is looking like a trend.
-
hyperpape
- Tengen
- Posts: 4382
- Joined: Thu May 06, 2010 3:24 pm
- Rank: AGA 3k
- GD Posts: 65
- OGS: Hyperpape 4k
- Location: Caldas da Rainha, Portugal
- Has thanked: 499 times
- Been thanked: 727 times
Re: modern orthodoxy in the opening
You're saying the top 18 account for 74% of the reduced set, while the top 6 account for 48% of all games? Something about the phrasing is makling me second guess myself.snorri wrote:Using my Winter 2010 copy of GoGoD, I analyzed the first four moves of games played in 2010. (GoGoD Winter 2010 goes up to 4 December 2010). This is 2244 games.
In selecting popular sequences of the first 4 moves, I eliminated any that appear in less than 1% of the games. The 18 openings represent 74% of all games in that set. The top 6 openings account for 48% of all games, and they all start with black's first move on the 4-4 point. The top 3 account for 1/3 of all games.
-
snorri
- Lives in sente
- Posts: 706
- Joined: Fri Jul 02, 2010 8:15 am
- GD Posts: 846
- Has thanked: 252 times
- Been thanked: 251 times
Re: modern orthodoxy in the opening
hyperpape wrote:You're saying the top 18 account for 74% of the reduced set, while the top 6 account for 48% of all games? Something about the phrasing is makling me second guess myself.snorri wrote:Using my Winter 2010 copy of GoGoD, I analyzed the first four moves of games played in 2010. (GoGoD Winter 2010 goes up to 4 December 2010). This is 2244 games.
In selecting popular sequences of the first 4 moves, I eliminated any that appear in less than 1% of the games. The 18 openings represent 74% of all games in that set. The top 6 openings account for 48% of all games, and they all start with black's first move on the 4-4 point. The top 3 account for 1/3 of all games.
Sorry, I should be more clear. All percentages are relative to the 2244 games from 2010 an that CD.
-
Kirby
- Honinbo
- Posts: 9553
- Joined: Wed Feb 24, 2010 6:04 pm
- GD Posts: 0
- KGS: Kirby
- Tygem: 커비라고해
- Has thanked: 1583 times
- Been thanked: 1707 times
Re: modern orthodoxy in the opening
My favorite opening for both sides these days is this one:
As a side note, I have mixed feelings about a set of 2244 games. On one hand, it seems like a lot of games. On the other hand, there's a lot of variation in go, so 2244 doesn't seem like that much data.
However, we are only looking at the first few moves, so observing these tendencies is probably valuable.
As a side note, I have mixed feelings about a set of 2244 games. On one hand, it seems like a lot of games. On the other hand, there's a lot of variation in go, so 2244 doesn't seem like that much data.
However, we are only looking at the first few moves, so observing these tendencies is probably valuable.
be immersed
-
snorri
- Lives in sente
- Posts: 706
- Joined: Fri Jul 02, 2010 8:15 am
- GD Posts: 846
- Has thanked: 252 times
- Been thanked: 251 times
Re: modern orthodoxy in the opening
This goes past the first 4 moves, but I thought that it might be interesting to some people. In case anyone didn't get the memo, the Kobayashi is dead.
or 'a' are the surviving openings... 'c' and 'd' are down to curiousity level now.
or 'a' are the surviving openings... 'c' and 'd' are down to curiousity level now.-
snorri
- Lives in sente
- Posts: 706
- Joined: Fri Jul 02, 2010 8:15 am
- GD Posts: 846
- Has thanked: 252 times
- Been thanked: 251 times
Re: modern orthodoxy in the opening
Kirby wrote:However, we are only looking at the first few moves, so observing these tendencies is probably valuable.
Although I like looking at this kind of thing, actually I'd be one of the first the claim that it is not immensely valuable. The differences that show up in pro games in terms of win/loss stats don't seem to translate into, for example, high dan KGS games. Go is not chess. It is rare to see an opening get a clear refutation that's comprehensible by amateurs.
I think the main value may be for players who would like to be able to follow the lastest pro games and would like an update on what to expect. Maybe for very strong amateurs it may be possible to consider that if black plays an opening that is too slow for modern komi, simply playing solidly as white and seeking a close game is good enough. But if your endgame is not good, it may still be better for white to play to create confusion just like in pre-komi days.
I have no fantasies that following pro fashion makes me stronger. It's just a hobby. My wife watches "America's Next Top Model" and I watch Cho U and Lee Sedol. They are both indulgences.
-
hyperpape
- Tengen
- Posts: 4382
- Joined: Thu May 06, 2010 3:24 pm
- Rank: AGA 3k
- GD Posts: 65
- OGS: Hyperpape 4k
- Location: Caldas da Rainha, Portugal
- Has thanked: 499 times
- Been thanked: 727 times
Re: modern orthodoxy in the opening
They're on America's Next Top Model? I have to start watching that show!snorri wrote:My wife watches "America's Next Top Model" and I watch Cho U and Lee Sedol.
-
snorri
- Lives in sente
- Posts: 706
- Joined: Fri Jul 02, 2010 8:15 am
- GD Posts: 846
- Has thanked: 252 times
- Been thanked: 251 times
Re: modern orthodoxy in the opening
BTW, here is the data for KGS high dan amateurs from 2010. I selected 6966 games with no handicaps and 6.5 komi.
Q16 D4 Q3 D16 404
Q16 D16 Q3 D4 366
Q16 D4 Q3 D17 314
R16 D16 Q3 D4 206
R16 D17 Q3 D4 190
Q16 D17 Q3 D4 189
Q16 D4 R4 D17 181
Q16 D4 Q4 D17 175
Q16 D16 Q3 D3 170
Q16 D16 R4 D3 153
Q16 D4 R4 D16 151
Q16 D16 Q4 D3 138
Q16 D4 Q4 D16 106
Q16 D17 Q4 D4 105
Q16 D17 Q3 D3 104
R16 D16 Q3 D3 99
Q16 D16 Q4 D4 94
Q16 D16 R4 D4 77
Q16 D17 D4 Q4 75
The first thing to note is that there are 19 patterns that made the cut about 1%. More importantly, they only cover 47% of the games, which means the KGS results have a "long tail" with more options. However, the options here aren't very strange. Except for the fact that the KGS high dans are not abandoning the nirensei (parallel 4-4) or diagonal 4-4 patterns as much as pros have, the openings are similar. There are no moves other than 3-4 or 4-4, and they are all in empty corners with no early approaches.
I'm a bit surprised but perhaps shouldn't be. Some of these players were insei or had professional training, for example.
Q16 D4 Q3 D16 404
Q16 D16 Q3 D4 366
Q16 D4 Q3 D17 314
R16 D16 Q3 D4 206
R16 D17 Q3 D4 190
Q16 D17 Q3 D4 189
Q16 D4 R4 D17 181
Q16 D4 Q4 D17 175
Q16 D16 Q3 D3 170
Q16 D16 R4 D3 153
Q16 D4 R4 D16 151
Q16 D16 Q4 D3 138
Q16 D4 Q4 D16 106
Q16 D17 Q4 D4 105
Q16 D17 Q3 D3 104
R16 D16 Q3 D3 99
Q16 D16 Q4 D4 94
Q16 D16 R4 D4 77
Q16 D17 D4 Q4 75
The first thing to note is that there are 19 patterns that made the cut about 1%. More importantly, they only cover 47% of the games, which means the KGS results have a "long tail" with more options. However, the options here aren't very strange. Except for the fact that the KGS high dans are not abandoning the nirensei (parallel 4-4) or diagonal 4-4 patterns as much as pros have, the openings are similar. There are no moves other than 3-4 or 4-4, and they are all in empty corners with no early approaches.
I'm a bit surprised but perhaps shouldn't be. Some of these players were insei or had professional training, for example.
-
John Fairbairn
- Oza
- Posts: 3724
- Joined: Wed Apr 21, 2010 3:09 am
- Has thanked: 20 times
- Been thanked: 4672 times
Re: modern orthodoxy in the opening
As usual I exaggerate for the purposes of stimulating discussion, but I think there is a bigger trend going on. It's to do with time limits.
In the good old days, the aim of the fuseki was to get to the endgame. Nowadays the aim is to get to the middle game.
When time limits were generous enough to ensure that pros could avoid most reading mistakes, they did not expect to win in the middle game. They hoped instead to emerge into the endgame with a thicker position. The fuseki stones were seen as vital in that process and it was considered very important that when the endgame started (about move 120) each fuseki stone should be seen to be in just the right place to contribute to that thick position.
Accordingly, a large proportion of a player's time was spent in the opening. This in large part stimulated interest in varying fusekis (which, in a vicious circle, meant spending even more time on the fuseki). Players (this was an era when it was all essentially about Japan) were aware of this because there was an explicit comparison with sumo. Because right/left-handedness comes into it, wrestlers tend to grapple in a standard way, and switching hands was done to inject an element of surprise. In go, however, playing the same way repeatedly was the thing that caused surprise. It was considered lazy and the sumo term for this was borrowed (namakura yotsu). In Sakata was an early proponent of this, and this was one of his early nicknames. In sumo, of course, if you were stronger or bigger than the opponent you could afford to be lazy, and maybe the signal Sakata was sending was that he was strong enough not to need to worry about the endgame. But the prevailing view, especially in a match, was that you had to vary your fusekis and rely on stamina for the endgame.
With modern go, especially the Mickey Mouse events in Korea, you just want to be the first to start a successful fight. It's basically a crapshoot, but at least if you can control when and how the fighting starts you may have an edge. Playing openings you are familiar with (not just fusekis but also new josekis and hamete moves) is one way of controlling the tipping point. There are other ways of doing this, of course - the old chestnut of grabbing territory and then relying on the one-weak-group-can-live strategy (significantly, associated most with Sakata) - is not just still around but is much more prevalent, but a nakamura yotsu fuseki seems to be the favoured strategy either way.
One interesting way to see the difference is to look at games at about move 120 and then highlight the fuseki stones. In the older games you can see how they tend to form linchpins in territories (or, if they don't, this is often part of why a player lost), but in modern games it is more chaotic. If anything the key fuseki moves are those that feature in the main fighting, which means a lot of emphasis on high stones.
Behind all of this, obviously, is also the observation that resignation is much more common in modern games with short time limits. More blunders or more accent on fighting? Probably both.
In the good old days, the aim of the fuseki was to get to the endgame. Nowadays the aim is to get to the middle game.
When time limits were generous enough to ensure that pros could avoid most reading mistakes, they did not expect to win in the middle game. They hoped instead to emerge into the endgame with a thicker position. The fuseki stones were seen as vital in that process and it was considered very important that when the endgame started (about move 120) each fuseki stone should be seen to be in just the right place to contribute to that thick position.
Accordingly, a large proportion of a player's time was spent in the opening. This in large part stimulated interest in varying fusekis (which, in a vicious circle, meant spending even more time on the fuseki). Players (this was an era when it was all essentially about Japan) were aware of this because there was an explicit comparison with sumo. Because right/left-handedness comes into it, wrestlers tend to grapple in a standard way, and switching hands was done to inject an element of surprise. In go, however, playing the same way repeatedly was the thing that caused surprise. It was considered lazy and the sumo term for this was borrowed (namakura yotsu). In Sakata was an early proponent of this, and this was one of his early nicknames. In sumo, of course, if you were stronger or bigger than the opponent you could afford to be lazy, and maybe the signal Sakata was sending was that he was strong enough not to need to worry about the endgame. But the prevailing view, especially in a match, was that you had to vary your fusekis and rely on stamina for the endgame.
With modern go, especially the Mickey Mouse events in Korea, you just want to be the first to start a successful fight. It's basically a crapshoot, but at least if you can control when and how the fighting starts you may have an edge. Playing openings you are familiar with (not just fusekis but also new josekis and hamete moves) is one way of controlling the tipping point. There are other ways of doing this, of course - the old chestnut of grabbing territory and then relying on the one-weak-group-can-live strategy (significantly, associated most with Sakata) - is not just still around but is much more prevalent, but a nakamura yotsu fuseki seems to be the favoured strategy either way.
One interesting way to see the difference is to look at games at about move 120 and then highlight the fuseki stones. In the older games you can see how they tend to form linchpins in territories (or, if they don't, this is often part of why a player lost), but in modern games it is more chaotic. If anything the key fuseki moves are those that feature in the main fighting, which means a lot of emphasis on high stones.
Behind all of this, obviously, is also the observation that resignation is much more common in modern games with short time limits. More blunders or more accent on fighting? Probably both.
-
Kirby
- Honinbo
- Posts: 9553
- Joined: Wed Feb 24, 2010 6:04 pm
- GD Posts: 0
- KGS: Kirby
- Tygem: 커비라고해
- Has thanked: 1583 times
- Been thanked: 1707 times
Re: modern orthodoxy in the opening
John Fairbairn wrote:...
With modern go, especially the Mickey Mouse events in Korea, you just want to be the first to start a successful fight. It's basically a crapshoot, but at least if you can control when and how the fighting starts you may have an edge. ...
Is Mickey Mouse known for fighting or something? I suppose he does have the gloves for it. I'm also surprised that you feel that modern games are a "crapshoot". I'm sure that today's pros would be happy to hear that.
be immersed
-
Laman
- Lives in gote
- Posts: 655
- Joined: Thu May 06, 2010 10:24 pm
- Rank: 1d KGS
- GD Posts: 0
- KGS: Laman
- Location: Czechia
- Has thanked: 29 times
- Been thanked: 41 times
- Contact:
Re: modern orthodoxy in the opening
Kirby wrote:Is Mickey Mouse known for fighting or something? I suppose he does have the gloves for it. I'm also surprised that you feel that modern games are a "crapshoot". I'm sure that today's pros would be happy to hear that.
i don't know much about Mickey Mouse, but from John Fairbairn's posts i understand he means short time limits. i suppose he uses the term 'Mickey Mouse' for reason that such games are meant only to fast/shortly entertain spectators, and can't be really taken serious
it is a recurring theme in JF's posts and i mostly agree with his opinion
Spilling gasoline feels good.
I might be wrong, but probably not.
I might be wrong, but probably not.
-
Kirby
- Honinbo
- Posts: 9553
- Joined: Wed Feb 24, 2010 6:04 pm
- GD Posts: 0
- KGS: Kirby
- Tygem: 커비라고해
- Has thanked: 1583 times
- Been thanked: 1707 times
Re: modern orthodoxy in the opening
Laman wrote:Kirby wrote:Is Mickey Mouse known for fighting or something? I suppose he does have the gloves for it. I'm also surprised that you feel that modern games are a "crapshoot". I'm sure that today's pros would be happy to hear that.
i don't know much about Mickey Mouse, but from John Fairbairn's posts i understand he means short time limits. i suppose he uses the term 'Mickey Mouse' for reason that such games are meant only to fast/shortly entertain spectators, and can't be really taken serious
it is a recurring theme in JF's posts and i mostly agree with his opinion
So combined with:
With modern go, especially the Mickey Mouse events in Korea,...
the implication is that events in Korea "can't be really taken serious"?
be immersed
-
HermanHiddema
- Gosei
- Posts: 2011
- Joined: Tue Apr 20, 2010 10:08 am
- Rank: Dutch 4D
- GD Posts: 645
- Universal go server handle: herminator
- Location: Groningen, NL
- Has thanked: 202 times
- Been thanked: 1086 times
Re: modern orthodoxy in the opening
Kirby wrote:With modern go, especially the Mickey Mouse events in Korea,...
the implication is that events in Korea "can't be really taken serious"?
Depends on your definition of serious. With events made for TV, where the audience demands to be amused constantly, they enter byoyomi almost immediately. The probability of errors increases greatly, so the playing level simply drops.
So if your definition of serious games includes "high level of play", then those events cannot be taken as seriously. If your definition is only "the players are strong and do their utmost to win", then any pro event is serious.