More thoughts on the heuristic
Here is the problem, again.
$$Bc Black to play
$$ --------------
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | X X X X . . .
$$ | . O O . X . .
$$ | . . . O X . .
$$ | O O O X X . .
$$ | . O X . . . .
$$ | O O X . . . .
$$ | . X X . . . .
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | . . . , . . .
- Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Bc Black to play
$$ --------------
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | X X X X . . .
$$ | . O O . X . .
$$ | . . . O X . .
$$ | O O O X X . .
$$ | . O X . . . .
$$ | O O X . . . .
$$ | . X X . . . .
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | . . . , . . .[/go]
Now suppose that White announces a strategy to play

at B-16 (if possible), whatever Black may play.
$$Bc White strategy
$$ --------------
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | X X X X . . .
$$ | . O O . X . .
$$ | . 2 . O X . .
$$ | O O O X X . .
$$ | . O X . . . .
$$ | O O X . . . .
$$ | . X X . . . .
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | . . . , . . .
- Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Bc White strategy
$$ --------------
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | X X X X . . .
$$ | . O O . X . .
$$ | . 2 . O X . .
$$ | O O O X X . .
$$ | . O X . . . .
$$ | O O X . . . .
$$ | . X X . . . .
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | . . . , . . .[/go]
OC, this strategy will fail, because this is a problem.
$$Bc Black kills
$$ --------------
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | X X X X . . .
$$ | 1 O O 3 X . .
$$ | . 2 . O X . .
$$ | O O O X X . .
$$ | . O X . . . .
$$ | O O X . . . .
$$ | . X X . . . .
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | . . . , . . .
- Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Bc Black kills
$$ --------------
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | X X X X . . .
$$ | 1 O O 3 X . .
$$ | . 2 . O X . .
$$ | O O O X X . .
$$ | . O X . . . .
$$ | O O X . . . .
$$ | . X X . . . .
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | . . . , . . .[/go]
Black thwarts White's strategy with

and

. And, we believe,

and

, in either order, is the only way to kill White, given

. That means that

succeeds against every other choice for

.
$$Bc White lives.
$$ --------------
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | X X X X . . .
$$ | 3 O O 4 X . .
$$ | 1 2 . O X . .
$$ | O O O X X . .
$$ | . O X . . . .
$$ | O O X . . . .
$$ | . X X . . . .
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | . . . , . . .
- Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Bc White lives.
$$ --------------
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | X X X X . . .
$$ | 3 O O 4 X . .
$$ | 1 2 . O X . .
$$ | O O O X X . .
$$ | . O X . . . .
$$ | O O X . . . .
$$ | . X X . . . .
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | . . . , . . .[/go]
$$Bc White lives
$$ --------------
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | X X X X . . .
$$ | 4 O O 3 X . .
$$ | 1 2 . O X . .
$$ | O O O X X . .
$$ | . O X . . . .
$$ | O O X . . . .
$$ | . X X . . . .
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | . . . , . . .
- Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Bc White lives
$$ --------------
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | X X X X . . .
$$ | 4 O O 3 X . .
$$ | 1 2 . O X . .
$$ | O O O X X . .
$$ | . O X . . . .
$$ | O O X . . . .
$$ | . X X . . . .
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | . . . , . . .[/go]
$$Bc White lives
$$ --------------
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | X X X X . . .
$$ | 3 O O 4 X . .
$$ | . 2 1 O X . .
$$ | O O O X X . .
$$ | . O X . . . .
$$ | O O X . . . .
$$ | . X X . . . .
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | . . . , . . .
- Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Bc White lives
$$ --------------
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | X X X X . . .
$$ | 3 O O 4 X . .
$$ | . 2 1 O X . .
$$ | O O O X X . .
$$ | . O X . . . .
$$ | O O X . . . .
$$ | . X X . . . .
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | . . . , . . .[/go]
$$Bc White lives
$$ --------------
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | X X X X . . .
$$ | 4 O O 3 X . .
$$ | . 2 1 O X . .
$$ | O O O X X . .
$$ | . O X . . . .
$$ | O O X . . . .
$$ | . X X . . . .
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | . . . , . . .
- Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Bc White lives
$$ --------------
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | X X X X . . .
$$ | 4 O O 3 X . .
$$ | . 2 1 O X . .
$$ | O O O X X . .
$$ | . O X . . . .
$$ | O O X . . . .
$$ | . X X . . . .
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | . . . , . . .[/go]
$$Bc White lives
$$ --------------
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | X X X X . . .
$$ | . O O . X . .
$$ | 3 2 1 O X . .
$$ | O O O X X . .
$$ | . O X . . . .
$$ | O O X . . . .
$$ | . X X . . . .
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | . . . , . . .
- Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Bc White lives
$$ --------------
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | X X X X . . .
$$ | . O O . X . .
$$ | 3 2 1 O X . .
$$ | O O O X X . .
$$ | . O X . . . .
$$ | O O X . . . .
$$ | . X X . . . .
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | . . . , . . .[/go]
We know from a previous variation that because of the capture,

can pass and still live.
What this method does, then, is to branch the game tree, not on

, but on

. Also, the proof that

at A-16 or C-16 fails, which is the point of the heuristic, is the demonstration that White's strategy succeeds against those plays.
This simplifies the question from one of finding one White play and then two Black plays that are necessary for Black to succeed to finding a White strategy for

that effectively prunes the game tree by eliminating options for

.
Consider, then, this strategy for

.
$$Bc White strategy
$$ --------------
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | X X X X . . .
$$ | 2 O O . X . .
$$ | . . . O X . .
$$ | O O O X X . .
$$ | . O X . . . .
$$ | O O X . . . .
$$ | . X X . . . .
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | . . . , . . .
- Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Bc White strategy
$$ --------------
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | X X X X . . .
$$ | 2 O O . X . .
$$ | . . . O X . .
$$ | O O O X X . .
$$ | . O X . . . .
$$ | O O X . . . .
$$ | . X X . . . .
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | . . . , . . .[/go]
How effective is this strategy?
$$Bc White lives
$$ --------------
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | X X X X . . .
$$ | 2 O O 1 X . .
$$ | . 4 3 O X . .
$$ | O O O X X . .
$$ | . O X . . . .
$$ | O O X . . . .
$$ | . X X . . . .
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | . . . , . . .
- Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Bc White lives
$$ --------------
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | X X X X . . .
$$ | 2 O O 1 X . .
$$ | . 4 3 O X . .
$$ | O O O X X . .
$$ | . O X . . . .
$$ | O O X . . . .
$$ | . X X . . . .
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | . . . , . . .[/go]
$$Bc White lives
$$ --------------
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | X X X X . . .
$$ | 2 O O 1 X . .
$$ | . 3 4 O X . .
$$ | O O O X X . .
$$ | . O X . . . .
$$ | O O X . . . .
$$ | . X X . . . .
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | . . . , . . .
- Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Bc White lives
$$ --------------
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | X X X X . . .
$$ | 2 O O 1 X . .
$$ | . 3 4 O X . .
$$ | O O O X X . .
$$ | . O X . . . .
$$ | O O X . . . .
$$ | . X X . . . .
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | . . . , . . .[/go]
$$Bc White lives
$$ --------------
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | X X X X . . .
$$ | 2 O O 1 X . .
$$ | 3 . 4 O X . .
$$ | O O O X X . .
$$ | . O X . . . .
$$ | O O X . . . .
$$ | . X X . . . .
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | . . . , . . .
- Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Bc White lives
$$ --------------
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | X X X X . . .
$$ | 2 O O 1 X . .
$$ | 3 . 4 O X . .
$$ | O O O X X . .
$$ | . O X . . . .
$$ | O O X . . . .
$$ | . X X . . . .
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | . . . , . . .[/go]

at D-17 fails.
$$Bc White dies
$$ --------------
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | X X X X . . .
$$ | 2 O O 4 X . .
$$ | 5 3 1 O X . .
$$ | O O O X X . .
$$ | . O X . . . .
$$ | O O X . . . .
$$ | . X X . . . .
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | . . . , . . .
- Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Bc White dies
$$ --------------
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | X X X X . . .
$$ | 2 O O 4 X . .
$$ | 5 3 1 O X . .
$$ | O O O X X . .
$$ | . O X . . . .
$$ | O O X . . . .
$$ | . X X . . . .
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | . . . , . . .[/go]
$$Bc Variation for :w4:
$$ --------------
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | X X X X . . .
$$ | 2 O O . X . .
$$ | 4 3 1 O X . .
$$ | O O O X X . .
$$ | . O X . . . .
$$ | O O X . . . .
$$ | . X X . . . .
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | . . . , . . .
- Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Bc Variation for :w4:
$$ --------------
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | X X X X . . .
$$ | 2 O O . X . .
$$ | 4 3 1 O X . .
$$ | O O O X X . .
$$ | . O X . . . .
$$ | O O X . . . .
$$ | . X X . . . .
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | . . . , . . .[/go]
$$Bc Variation continued, White lives
$$ --------------
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | X X X X . . .
$$ | O O O 5 X . .
$$ | O . 6 O X . .
$$ | O O O X X . .
$$ | . O X . . . .
$$ | O O X . . . .
$$ | . X X . . . .
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | . . . , . . .
- Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Bc Variation continued, White lives
$$ --------------
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | X X X X . . .
$$ | O O O 5 X . .
$$ | O . 6 O X . .
$$ | O O O X X . .
$$ | . O X . . . .
$$ | O O X . . . .
$$ | . X X . . . .
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | . . . , . . .[/go]
$$Bc Variation for :b5:, White lives
$$ --------------
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | X X X X . . .
$$ | O O O 6 X . .
$$ | O . 5 O X . .
$$ | O O O X X . .
$$ | . O X . . . .
$$ | O O X . . . .
$$ | . X X . . . .
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | . . . , . . .
- Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Bc Variation for :b5:, White lives
$$ --------------
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | X X X X . . .
$$ | O O O 6 X . .
$$ | O . 5 O X . .
$$ | O O O X X . .
$$ | . O X . . . .
$$ | O O X . . . .
$$ | . X X . . . .
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | . . . , . . .[/go]
$$Bc White dies
$$ --------------
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | X X X X . . .
$$ | 2 O O 4 X . .
$$ | 3 5 1 O X . .
$$ | O O O X X . .
$$ | . O X . . . .
$$ | O O X . . . .
$$ | . X X . . . .
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | . . . , . . .
- Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Bc White dies
$$ --------------
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | X X X X . . .
$$ | 2 O O 4 X . .
$$ | 3 5 1 O X . .
$$ | O O O X X . .
$$ | . O X . . . .
$$ | O O X . . . .
$$ | . X X . . . .
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | . . . , . . .[/go]
$$Bc Variation for :w4:, White lives
$$ --------------
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | X X X X . . .
$$ | 2 O O . X . .
$$ | 3 4 1 O X . .
$$ | O O O X X . .
$$ | . O X . . . .
$$ | O O X . . . .
$$ | . X X . . . .
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | . . . , . . .
- Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Bc Variation for :w4:, White lives
$$ --------------
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | X X X X . . .
$$ | 2 O O . X . .
$$ | 3 4 1 O X . .
$$ | O O O X X . .
$$ | . O X . . . .
$$ | O O X . . . .
$$ | . X X . . . .
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | . . . , . . .[/go]

at C-16 fails.
$$Bc White dies
$$ --------------
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | X X X X . . .
$$ | 2 O O 4 X . .
$$ | 3 1 5 O X . .
$$ | O O O X X . .
$$ | . O X . . . .
$$ | O O X . . . .
$$ | . X X . . . .
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | . . . , . . .
- Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Bc White dies
$$ --------------
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | X X X X . . .
$$ | 2 O O 4 X . .
$$ | 3 1 5 O X . .
$$ | O O O X X . .
$$ | . O X . . . .
$$ | O O X . . . .
$$ | . X X . . . .
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | . . . , . . .[/go]
$$Bc Variation for :w4:, White lives
$$ --------------
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | X X X X . . .
$$ | 2 O O . X . .
$$ | 3 1 4 O X . .
$$ | O O O X X . .
$$ | . O X . . . .
$$ | O O X . . . .
$$ | . X X . . . .
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | . . . , . . .
- Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Bc Variation for :w4:, White lives
$$ --------------
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | X X X X . . .
$$ | 2 O O . X . .
$$ | 3 1 4 O X . .
$$ | O O O X X . .
$$ | . O X . . . .
$$ | O O X . . . .
$$ | . X X . . . .
$$ | . . . . . . .
$$ | . . . , . . .[/go]

at B-16 fails. And, by transposition,

at A-16 fails.
Note that Black plays

and

in order, to avoid having to read transpositions.
This demonstrates that White's strategy of playing

at A-17 succeeds against all other plays for

.

must be at A-17.
OC, in real life a solver would not read out all of these variations, but would know or see that White is alive. I just posted them for completeness.
This is a different way of exploring the game tree than just reading the moves in order. If you can find a good enough strategy for White you can prune moves for Black quite effectively.
