Takeo Kajiwara, the author of "Direction of Play" has a chapter entitled "How move two lost the game." In the introductory page, he notes that as long as one plays on the 3rd or 4th rank in the corner, it is not possible to lose the game on one's first move. ( I think that I just barely squeaked in on that one. ) He proceeds to analyze a game between two mid-dans, and shows how the second move was indeed inferior, and, with sufficiently accurate play by the opponent, could indeed lose the game.
He continues with the observation that non-pros treat the first few moves as almost arbitrary, just play in the open corner and it's good enough. I don't intend to go that way. I'm facing an opponent who is - depending on how you measure - 1 to 4 stones stronger than I am. I need every edge that I can get.
The obvious candidates are the two open corners. One of them should be a teeny bit better than the other. But which one?
The upper left corner is symmetrical. The lower right corner is not. Let's look at what is likely to happen there. Even if we know no joseki, just on basic principles we can make a good guess at it. Corners are more valuable than sides or center, and so white will want to slide under and take it.
If we know a few joseki, we can be even more sure that white intends to invade. He played the ladder breaker in the opposite corner. ( Yes, there is subtle fencing going on even at move two ).
One of the common josekis is this:
$$Wc
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 2 3 . |
$$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . X , 1 . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ---------------------------------------
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[go]$$Wc
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 2 3 . |
$$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . X , 1 . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ---------------------------------------[/go]
...which is quite playable for white when he has the ladder breaker because black cannot play like this:
$$Bc
$$ ---------------------------------------
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$$ | . . . W . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . |
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$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 3 . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 4 O 1 . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X X O . |
$$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . X , O 2 . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
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$$ ---------------------------------------
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[go]$$Bc
$$ ---------------------------------------
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$$ | . . . W . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . |
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$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 3 . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 4 O 1 . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X X O . |
$$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . X , O 2 . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ---------------------------------------[/go]
Another common joseki goes like this:
$$Wc
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 4 . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 3 . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . X , 1 . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ---------------------------------------
- Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Wc
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 4 . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 3 . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . X , 1 . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ---------------------------------------[/go]
...and continues like this:
$$Bc
$$ ---------------------------------------
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$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . W . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . |
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$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O X . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 X O 2 . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 4 . |
$$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . X , O . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . a . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ---------------------------------------
- Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Bc
$$ ---------------------------------------
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$$ | . . . W . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . |
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$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O X . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 X O 2 . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 4 . |
$$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . X , O . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . a . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ---------------------------------------[/go]
If white doesn't have the ladder breaker, this is good for black as he gets strong outside influence, and white gets territory, but white must finish in gote as black can still play 'a'.
So, having concluded that white invading in the corner is likely, let's look at the inevitable result. Schematically, it looks like this:
$$Bc
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$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . W . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . |
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$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . # . @ . . |
$$ | . . b b . . . . . a . . . . X , O . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . # . @ . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ---------------------------------------
- Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Bc
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$$ | . . . W . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . |
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$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . # . @ . . |
$$ | . . b b . . . . . a . . . . X , O . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . # . @ . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ---------------------------------------[/go]
...where both white and black add in some fashion to their original stones. Black gets outside influence, white gets territory. Once we can see the generic shape of black's position, we know where he wants to play next. Walls need extensions, and something around 'a' is needed.
For beginners: see http://senseis.xmp.net/?ExtensionFromAWall We now have a direction of play developing for the 5-4 stone. It wants to go westward. Something around 'b' is the logical eventuality.
Now we can see that of the two open corners, the lower left is a teeny bit better than the upper right. So my move is over there someplace. Exactly where in the lower left? Well, at this stage, such calculation is beyond me. Reason has run out of steam, and arbitariness has the floor.
I'm going to go with the 4-4 because we seem to be going for an influence game, and it works with the influence-oriented 5-4 stone. It now looks like this:
.
we may ask what was the point of 
- 
?
, hinders Black's natural expansion from the bottom right corner, which is still unsettled.